Hello,

I was going to wait for the October data to be analyzed, but due to the sharp drop in steel stocks, I started sorting out the data early.

I deeply sympathize with the friends who got caught in Handan Iron and Steel.

In fact, in the past two months, I have repeatedly reminded my friends here that Handan Iron and Steel should not chase after 9 yuan to buy. It has also been explained countless times that Handan Iron and Steel is not undervalued, so there is no need to chase high and buy. I say this not because I want to shirk any responsibility, but because I want to explain the situation.

Actually, it was I who had a premonition that steel stocks might fall, so I stopped talking about Handan Iron and Steel and talked about bank stocks, but it was still too late, and some people were desperate to chase after high prices and buy.

friends in Handan iron and steel co., ltd., you don't need to be afraid. There is nothing wrong with the steel industry. The profit in the fourth quarter will be better. The decline in the performance in the third quarter is caused by the drop in ex-factory price and the increase in cost. As time goes by, the cost of steel will shift downstream. The decline in the performance of steel stocks in the third quarter is a temporary fluctuation, not a reversal of the trend. The prosperity of the steel industry has not yet reached a high level, because the prosperity has not yet reached a high level. At present, the prosperity of the steel industry can only be said to be at a low position in the middle.

Today, I want to say a word to my friends: When Handan Iron and Steel is liberated, I hope you won't sell it easily, because Handan Iron and Steel has a bright future. The rise of Handan Iron and Steel only needs time, so wait patiently, my friend!

What are we afraid of if the future P/E ratio is less than 1 times?

clothes that get wet in the rain have their own sun to dry. Handan iron and steel sold by the fund today will be bought back at a higher price tomorrow. What's more, they're not doing it again and again, they're just making a difference.

in September, the average global crude steel output increased by 4.4% month-on-month.

According to the statistics of world steel association (IISI) on October 19th, in September 27, the global crude steel output of 67 major steel producing countries and regions was 11 million tons, up by 6.2% year-on-year. In September this year, the crude steel output of the 27 EU countries was 17.53 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.5%. North American crude steel output was 1.99 million tons, down 2.2% year-on-year; Asian crude steel output was 61.54 million tons, up 1.9% year-on-year. The output of crude steel in CIS was 9.95 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2%.

The statistics also show that from January to September this year, the total output of crude steel in 67 major steel-producing countries and regions in the world was 981 million tons, up by 7.3% year-on-year. From January to September, the crude steel output of the 27 EU countries was 158.42 million tons, up by 2.1% year-on-year. North American crude steel output was 99.21 million tons, down 1.6% year-on-year; The output of crude steel in Asia was 54.8 million tons, up 11.7% year-on-year. The output of crude steel in CIS was 93.6 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.3%.

In addition, according to the International Steel Association, after deducting China, the global crude steel output in September was 68.58 million tons, up 1.6% year-on-year; From January to September, the cumulative global crude steel output was 619 million tons, up 2.5% year-on-year.

in September, the average daily output of crude steel in 67 major steel-producing countries and regions in the world was 3.67 million tons, up 6.2% year-on-year, up 4.4% from August this year, which was the second highest level in history. (Source: My Steel)

Note: The global crude steel output in September was 111 million tons, up 6.2% year-on-year; Among them, domestic production was 42.71 million tons, an increase of 17.5%; Foreign production was 68.58 million tons, an increase of 1.6%.

in the first three quarters of the world, the cumulative output of crude steel was 982 million tons, up by 7.3% year-on-year; Among them, domestic production was 363 million tons, up 17.6% year-on-year; Foreign production was 619 million tons, up 2.5% year-on-year.

according to the above ratio, we can calculate that the global output in the first three quarters of 26 was about 915 million tons, including 39 million tons at home and 66 million tons abroad.

China's crude steel output accounts for one-third of the world

According to the latest data released by world steel association (IISI), in 26, China's crude steel output was 418.8 million tons (this is the statistics of the Iron and Steel Association, and the data of the Bureau of Statistics is 422 million tons), with a year-on-year increase of 17.7%; The global crude steel output was 1,239.5 million tons, up 8.8% year-on-year, exceeding 1 billion tons for the third consecutive year. Based on this calculation, China's crude steel output accounted for 33.8% of the global crude steel output last year, exceeding one-third for the first time. (Source: Lange Steel)

According to the statistics of world steel association (IISI), the world crude steel output reached 1.217 billion tons in 26, 9% higher than that in 25, reaching the highest level in history. In 26, it was also the third consecutive year that the world crude steel output exceeded 1 billion tons.

in p>26, China produced 418.8 million tons of crude steel, an increase of 313.8% in ten years. China's share of the world's crude steel output has also increased exponentially. Just over one-third of the world's total crude steel production. (Source: custeel Steel Channel)

Note: The data of the above two groups are different. When I used the above data (1,239.5 million tons) to calculate the proportion, I couldn't go on, so I had to look for the data again to explain what was wrong. The original problem lies in the difference between "global" and "67 major steel producing countries in the world". Now I use the data of "67 major steel producing countries in the world" (1.217 billion tons).

according to the above data, we can calculate that the domestic production in 26 was 418.8 million tons, and the foreign production was 798.2 million tons. The global total is 1.217 billion tons.

it can be further calculated that the global production in the fourth quarter of 26 was 32 million tons, including 19.8 million tons produced at home and 192.2 million tons produced abroad.

If the output in September is maintained in the fourth quarter of this year (27), the global output in the fourth quarter will be 333 million tons, and the annual output will be 1.315 billion tons, an increase of 98 million tons or 8.5%; Among them, the domestic output in the fourth quarter was 129 million tons, and the annual output was 492 million tons, an increase of 7 million tons or 16.59%; The output of foreign countries in the fourth quarter was 24 million tons, and the annual output was 823 million tons, an increase of 24.8 million tons or 3.11%. It should be said that this forecast data is reasonable.

to further predict the crude steel production in 28, according to the investment situation of the steel industry and the changes of the projects under construction, and without considering the so-called elimination of backward production capacity, I predict that the crude steel production in 28 will increase by 58 million tons, with an increase of 11.79%, reaching 55 million tons.

in p>8, I will increase the crude steel output by 3%. According to the output of 823 million tons in 27, it will increase by 24.7 million tons, and the annual output will reach 848 million tons.

then the global crude steel output in 28 was 1.398 billion tons, an increase of 83 million tons or 6.31%.

International Steel Association improves the forecast of global steel demand in the future

At the international steel conference held on October 7th, 27, world steel association announced the forecast of global steel consumption in 27 and 28. Among them, in 27, the global consumption of steel was about 1,197.6 million tons, an increase of 6.8%; In 28, it will reach 1,278.6 million tons, with an increase of 6.8%. Compared with the expected increase in demand in March this year, world steel association raised its forecast by .9 percentage points in 27 and .7 percentage points in 28. The reason is the economic prosperity of BRIC countries and the strong demand for steel. (Source: Lange Steel)

Note: According to the current development of the other three BRIC countries, I estimate that the global steel consumption in 28 will exceed this forecast. I notice that the actual consumption in previous years has basically exceeded the forecast, especially for China's forecast data, so I estimate that the forecast values for the other three countries will be relatively conservative.

I don't know why, there is a big difference between the statistics of production and consumption. From the data point of view, the output in 27 was much greater than the consumption, so it is reasonable to increase the inventory, but in fact, the global inventory has not increased. According to the data of steel inventory in the United States, the inventory in the United States is declining. So it's not clear what's going on. Maybe it's the statistical caliber.

well, let's just look at the increase in 28. In 28, the consumption increased by 6.8% or 81 million tons, and the production increased by 6.31% or 83 million tons, with a difference of 2 million tons. Then it is considered as a balance.

at present, judging from the global supply and demand relationship of steel industry, there should be no problem in the supply and demand relationship of steel industry in 28. Of course, there is another important reason here. Foreign steel enterprises have limited production at some time. Therefore, it is impossible to produce a fundamental change in short supply, but there is no problem under the operation of international iron and steel oligopoly enterprises. Therefore, it is nonsense for some professionals to say that the demand for steel in the world is in short supply when steel stocks rise.

on the other hand, if there is no malicious competition for export by small enterprises in China, then the global steel price can completely go out of the same trend as non-ferrous metals. This is an important reason why foreign countries are angry with the export of Chinese steel enterprises. Of course, it is the downstream steel demand industry that benefits.