First, how to find a worthwhile index fund for long-term investment?

1. Pay attention to index funds with small tracking deviation.

Whether it is purchased by stages or fixed investment for a long time, the purpose of investment index fund itself is to obtain the average market income and share the income brought by the long-term economic rise in China. Therefore, when investors choose index funds, they can consider completely copied index funds or index funds with small tracking error to the underlying index. In terms of specific selection, it is good to choose index funds with daily tracking error within 0.35% or annual tracking error within 4%. Even if such index funds are called enhanced index funds, the actual tracking error is very small. Investors investing in this kind of index fund can avoid the potential risks brought by the active management ability of the fund, so as to achieve the purpose of simply obtaining the average market income.

Tracking Deviation of Open Index Fund

Name of open index fund

Daily tracking deviation (%)

Annual tracking deviation (%)

Tracking index

E Fund Shenzhen Stock Exchange 100ETF

0. 10

2.00

Shenzhen 100 price index

Huaxia SME ETF

0. 10

2.00

Small and medium-sized board 100 index p

Huaxia SSE 50ETF

0. 10

2.00

SSE 50 Index

Aia Huatai dividend ETF

0. 10

2.00

Dividend index of Shanghai Stock Exchange

Huaan SSE180TF

0.20

2.00

Shanghai Stock Exchange 180 Index

Bo Shi yufu

0.25

4.00

Shanghai and Shenzhen 300

E Fund SSE 50

0.25

4.00

SSE 50 Index

Jiashi CSI 300

0.30

natrium

Shanghai and Shenzhen 300

Guotai CSI 300

0.35

natrium

Shanghai and Shenzhen 300

Dacheng CSI 300

0.35

4.00

Shanghai and Shenzhen 300

The Great Wall Jiutai won the bid of 300.

natrium

2.00

CITIC Standard & Poor's 300 Index

Changsheng CSI 100

natrium

4.00

Crime scene investigation 100

Wanjia Shanghai Stock Exchange 180

natrium

2.00

Shanghai Stock Exchange 180 Index

Huaan MSCI China A shares

0.50

7.75

MSCI China A

Guo Fu Tian Ding CSI Bonus

0.50

7.75

CSI dividend index

Rongtong Shenzhen 100

0.50

natrium

Shen Zheng 100

Rong tong ju Chao 100

0.50

natrium

Tide 100 index

Selected Works of Yin Hua Dow Jones 88

natrium

6.00

Daozhong 88 index

Data source: index fund prospectus, compiled by Good Buy Fund Research Center.

Note: The gray part refers to index funds with large tracking deviation, and they were not selected.

2. Pay attention to the market coverage of indexes tracked by index funds.

For the long-term investment of index funds, the characteristics of the index itself are also more important. From the perspective of dispersing non-systematic risks, investors should also pay attention to whether the indexes tracked by index funds have good market coverage. If an index has a better market coverage, it has a better ability to disperse non-systematic risks. This can be seen from the industry coverage and industry dispersion in the index industry distribution.

The industry coverage of the index tracked by the fully replicated index fund.

Index name

Industry coverage

Industry dispersion

Corresponding index fund

Shanghai and Shenzhen 300

100.00%

5.98%

Harvest CSI 300, Guotai CSI 300,

Bo Shi Yufu, Dacheng CSI 300

Shenzhen 100 price index

90.9 1%

4.97%

E Fund Shenzhen Stock Exchange 100ETF

Shanghai Stock Exchange 180

90.9 1%

8.20%

Wanjia SSE 180, Huaan SSE 180

SSE 50

59.09%

13.06%

Huaxia SSE 50ETF and E Fund SSE 50

Dividend index

72.73%

9. 18%

Aia Huatai dividend ETF

Crime scene investigation 100

72.73%

9.69%

Changsheng CSI 100

Small and medium-sized board 100 price index

natrium

natrium

Huaxia SME ETF

CITIC Standard & Poor's 300 Index

100.00%

5.77%

The Great Wall Jiutai won the bid of 300.

Source: wind, Good Buy Fund Research Center.

Deadline for data: 2008-12/25

Note: Industry coverage refers to the number of 22 industries distributed according to the industry standard of China Securities Regulatory Commission.

Industry dispersion refers to the standard deviation of the composition ratio of index industry. The smaller the industry dispersion, the more balanced the proportion distribution of index industry.

The coverage of some index industries is not comprehensive enough, which will lead to the long-term contribution of the industries not covered to the market. If the industry dispersion of the index is large, it shows that the industry composition ratio of the index is not uniform enough, and some industries account for too much or too little (for example, in the SSE 50 Index, the financial and insurance industries account for nearly 50%). Therefore, the industry risk of the index may be concentrated, but the non-system risk cannot be well dispersed.

Therefore, it is a good choice to choose an index with comprehensive industry coverage and small industry dispersion. To sum up, CITIC S&P 300 Index and CSI 300 Index have comprehensive industry coverage and small industry dispersion. In addition, Shenzhen Stock Exchange 100 price index has a comprehensive industry coverage and the smallest industry dispersion, so we also take it into account.

In fact, these three indexes are also very good in historical performance, especially the Shenzhen Stock Exchange 100 price index, whose historical income acquisition ability is the best among all indexes tracked by index funds at present, which also shows that the index has good industry coverage and can obtain better market income in the process of market fluctuation.

The historical average compound annual growth rate of the index tracked by the index fund.

Index name

In the past three years.

In the past five years.

In the past seven years,

Past 10 years

Shanghai composite index

16.85%

4.35%

1.70%

4.9 1%

Shanghai Stock Exchange 180 Index

24.09%

7.92%

4.37%

4. 14%

Dividend index

19.05%

SSE 50 Index

2 1. 14%

7.27%

Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index

26.53%

9.38%

5. 15%

Shenzhen 100 price index

35.35%

15.69%

Small and medium-sized board comprehensive index

24.09%

CITIC Standard & Poor's 300 Index

28.24%

10.80%

6.62%

7.76%

MSCI China A refers to.

27.53%

9.40%

4.36%

Daozhong 88 index

20.55%

4.3 1%

3.55%

3.30%

CSI dividend index

26.98%

Tide 100 index

26. 19%

Data source: wind, data deadline of Good Buy Fund Research Center: 2008- 12-25.

Note: The gray part refers to the index tracked by index funds with large tracking deviation but not selected.

The compound interest algorithm is adopted for the average annual growth rate, which shows that investors have shared the benefits of the index every year for N years. (N=3，5，7， 10)

There are six index funds in the market that track CITIC S&P 300 Index, Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index and Shenzhen 100 Price Index. If the comprehensive index fund tracks the deviation of these indexes, Great Wall Jiutai's winning bid of 300 and Yifangda Shenzhen Stock Exchange 100ETF have the lowest tracking deviation, so investors are advised to focus on it and consider holding it for a long time.

The tracking deviation of index fund tracks the index with good industry coverage.

The index tracked by the daily tracking deviation and the annual tracking deviation of the open index fund name.

E Fund Shenzhen Stock Exchange 100ETF

0. 10

2.00

Shenzhen 100 price index

Bo Shi yufu

0.25

4.00

Shanghai and Shenzhen 300

Jiashi CSI 300

0.30

Shanghai and Shenzhen 300

Guotai CSI 300

0.35

Shanghai and Shenzhen 300

Dacheng CSI 300

0.35

4.00

Shanghai and Shenzhen 300

The Great Wall Jiutai won the bid of 300.

2.00

CITIC Standard & Poor's 300 Index

Source: Good Buy Fund Research Center.

3. Pay attention to the market representation of the index fund itself.

In addition, investors should also consider the market representativeness of the tracked index when investing in index funds. For example, the China SME 100 index tracked by China SME ETF represents the small and medium-sized board in the broader market, the Shanghai-Shenzhen 300 index tracked by Cathay Pacific CSI 300 represents 300 stocks with large market capitalization in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets, and the Shanghai dividend index tracked by AIA Huatai Dividend ETF represents the companies with the best dividend situation in Shanghai. In this regard, there is no obvious difference between the indexes, but investors' own judgment.

Second, short-term rebound, how to seek profit maximization

1, the choice of index funds when the rebound characteristics cannot be grasped.

Index funds are not only a good tool for long-term investment, but also a good helper for short-term rebound. When the market is facing a rebound, if investors can't predict the rebound characteristics of the market well, they can choose index funds with comprehensive industry coverage and good industry dispersion as long-term investments to fully disperse non-systematic risks and obtain average market returns.

2. Grasp the choice of index funds under the characteristics of market rebound.

However, if investors not only have a good forecast of the overall market trend, but also have a good forecast of the rebound characteristics of the industries or markets leading the rebound, they can choose index funds according to the characteristics of the index, so as to obtain more income. For example, if investors believe that steel stocks may become the mainstream of a certain round of rebound, they can choose AIA Huatai dividend ETF index fund, which has the most weight in the steel industry, as a tool to grab the rebound; For example, if investors believe that small and medium-sized stocks may become the mainstream of a certain round of rebound, they can choose Chinese small and medium-sized ETF funds as a tool to grab the rebound. By analogy, it can be used as the basis for selecting index funds.

Because the enhanced index fund is not completely configured according to the standard industry configuration of the index, our sample is selected as the index tracked by the fully replicated index fund.

The index and index fund with the highest allocation in all industries

industry

index

Heavy position ratio (%)

Corresponding index fund

Finance and insurance

SSE 50

48.97

Huaxia SSE 50ETF

Metal, nonmetal

Dividend index

3 1.77

Aia Huatai dividend ETF

agriculture

Dividend index

23.92

Aia Huatai dividend ETF

realty business

Shen Zheng 100

14.84

E Fund Shenzhen Stock Exchange 100ETF

Production and supply of electricity, gas and water

Dividend index

14.05

Huaxia SME ETF

Machinery, equipment and instruments

Shen Zheng 100

12.3

E Fund Shenzhen Stock Exchange 100ETF

Source: Good Buy Fund Research Center. Deadline: 2008-12/25.

Note: The distribution is based on the industry distribution of CSRC, and the index accounting for more than 10% is taken. The sample does not include the small and medium-sized board 100 index.

However, the choice of index funds in this way increases the uncertainty risk when grabbing the rebound, and few people have the time and ability to grasp the rebound characteristics of the market relatively accurately, so this method is only suitable for a few professional investors.

Third, the current investment in index funds, risks and opportunities coexist.

In the short term, the current market risk is particularly serious. The macro-economic stimulus policies intensively introduced in the early stage may not start to have a certain pulling effect on the real economy until the end of next year. In the capital market, listed companies 1 quarterly report next year may face even worse emotions, and the pressure of lifting the ban is still there. At present, the market has rebounded under the favorable stimulus of previous policies, and the market is facing certain downward pressure. Therefore, investors should not use index funds as short-term investment tools at this time.

However, in the long run, after a round of sharp decline since 5438+00 in June last year, the current valuation has fallen to a historical low, and the long-term investment value of the A-share market has emerged. Therefore, if investors are optimistic about the long-term upward trend of China's economy, they can take advantage of the low market valuation to slowly build index funds and share the long-term positive investment income of the market.

Some indexes are estimated from 2005- 12-3 1 to 2008- 12-26 (times).

Index name

expiration date

Number of components

2008- 12-26

2007- 12-3 1

2006- 12-3 1

2005- 12-3 1

Shanghai and Shenzhen 300

2008- 12-26

300

14. 12

56.93

35.39

14.43

Shanghai composite index

2008- 12-26

908

15. 14

62.36

39.76

19. 13

Shen Zheng 100R

2008- 12-26

100

15.49

64.6 1

3 1.46

14. 13

Small and medium-sized board 100 index

2008- 12-26

100

25.9

8 1.04

4 1.87

natrium

CITIC Standard & Poor's 300 Index

2008- 12-26

344

14.37

56.65

natrium

natrium

Source: Good Buy Fund Research Center. Deadline: 2008-12/26.

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About closed-end funds:

Let me introduce you to the fund.

2. Guidelines for investors to invest in closed-end funds:

1. Open an account:

Open a stock account in a nearby securities business department. After signing the contract, you will get a shareholder card of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges, as well as a fund account number and a magnetic card for trading in the business department.

Try to choose the top ten brokers, and the trading system is stable and safe. Please refer to the brokerage website for account opening requirements and procedures.

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2008- 1 1-27 22:3 1

2. Mobilize funds:

When opening an account, deposit the funds into your own bank account as a demand deposit. It's best to get a bank account certificate and Ukey to prevent theft.

Transfer funds to the securities margin account according to the guidance of the business department. (Available funds in the margin account are calculated at current interest)

3. Online transactions:

Clean up the computer and install anti-virus software and anti-Trojan software.

Download the trading software from the brokerage website and prepare the certificate and password according to the instructions.

After entering the trading system, you can see the funds and buy and sell them.

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2008- 1 1-27 22:3 1

Preparation for novices before buying:

Understand the basic knowledge of stock trading first, such as what is the transaction rate (generally 0.5 ~ 2 per thousand)? How to buy and sell? How are the prices of "buy one" and "buy two" formed? Familiarize yourself with trading software and market software again.

Fund transactions only charge transaction fees, not any taxes, and profits are not taxed. The stocks and funds bought will not be sold until the next day, and the money will arrive immediately after the sale, so you can buy them again.

Market trend analysis and foundation sealing;

First, look at the trend.

Why make money in the securities market now? Because in 2006, China's Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets ranked last in the world and became the market with the first return.

The international stock market is in good condition, the Dow has hit record highs, and so have Hong Kong stocks. Needless to say, the domestic stock market is hot, and everyone feels it.

More than 200 billion yuan poured in a month, and the number of fund accounts opened reached the highest in a month. Now, the limited-time purchase restriction began at the opening of the previous sales month, and finally the CSRC had to stop. Funds poured into the market like the tide of Qiantang River and drilled into the bank of the institution. Only a fool is willing to make a big drop at this time to scare off the people.

How long will this bull market last? -See whether the organization is full, whether people have courage, and whether the boss's attitude has changed.

Judging from the chip movement trajectory, it took the main force nearly 1 year to collect most chips below 1800 points, and seized the absolute low point after five years of bear market, and the layout was basically completed. In this once-in-a-century prosperity, the main force will not retreat only after earning twice, and it will end at 3000, which is a loss. At present, the chips at the bottom are not loose, indicating that the main force is aiming high. Whether it can reach 4000 points depends on the amount of funds entering the market later.

Second, why invest in the base?

Stocks are risky and the returns are uncertain. We would rather insist on a guaranteed return of 20% than take the risk of loss. If you have no money, you can only stare when the opportunity comes again.

Open-end funds look good now, but the risk-return ratio is not as good as closed-end funds. The word "double income" is almost used in the propaganda, and the possible risks caused by large redemption and stock market crash are basically not mentioned. The scale of fund closure is fixed, so there is no need to worry about redemption. Fund managers can do long-term work with peace of mind. When the stock market fluctuates greatly or adjusts, the advantages will be reflected.

The only advantage of opening the base is that the stock market rises, while the benefits of closing the base are endless. Driven by several factors, such as dividend expectation, discount regression, stock index futures hedging tools (possible), due restructuring expectation, financing mortgage, etc., fund closure has swept away the decline for many years and once again became a scarce chip in the eyes of various funds. Just look at the names of the top ten holders on the cover of each issue. They are all large and small institutions. Chairman Shang said that we should unswervingly develop and expand the institutional investment team, not with institutions and who?

If you don't care, a transaction rate of two thousandths of a base cover can also save you a lot of money.

PS: the choice of closed-end funds.

Make a choice after comprehensively comparing the strength of fund management companies and fund managers, the past performance of funds, discount rate, expected rate of return and dividend ratio (which can be judged by Morningstar Fund rating report). It is preferred to cover the base of a large market with a scale of 200-300 million. Now the dividend in 2007, the half-year rate of return can be determined at more than 20%. If the FOF fund gets a premium in the same way, it will be 50%.

At the end of last year, Man Cang's institutional income is now close to 300%, and only a few people can exceed this target in stock trading.

After New Year's Day, the year-end dividend plan will be issued soon, and the hot scene of more than 50 funds paying dividends collectively has made people's investment enthusiasm boil completely. Ji Feng's total market share is only 80 billion, which is just enough for Jiashi's two newly developed bases. According to the enthusiasm of subscription, hehe, I can't imagine.

How to judge the value of closed-end funds

[Explanation] The reason why closed-end funds are valued by investors mainly lies in their discount rate, but closed-end funds have other advantages, such as huge distributable dividends, hedging tools for stock index futures, collateral for margin financing and securities lending, etc. Discount+dividend+futures refers to hedging+margin financing and securities lending.

Discount rate:

Calculation formula: premium (discount) rate = (transaction price-fund unit net value)/fund unit net value * 100%.

Reason: Closed-end fund discount is a common phenomenon in the international market. It is generally believed that the discount is mainly affected by two factors: first, there will be impact costs in the process of realizing the fund assets; second, the unit net value is only a reference for trading and does not play a decisive role, and the fund will also be affected by the relationship between market supply and demand.

Dividend:

After the investment is profitable, dividends will be paid in accordance with the dividend distribution method and proportion stipulated in the fund contract.

Investment value: dividends of closed-end funds will cause price difference fluctuation between secondary market and fund net value. Moreover, the dividends of closed-end funds also allow investors to share the fund income in advance and reduce the discount rate.

Futures index hedging:

Investment value: dynamically hedge the net value of closed-end funds through stock index futures, lock in the arbitrage space implied by current discount, and realize risk-free arbitrage of closed-end funds.

Classification:

(1) Whole hedging

(2) Phased hedging based on value at risk

(3) staged hedging according to the forecasting model.

(D) Value-at-risk+forecasting model for phased hedging

Margin trading:

After the opening of margin financing and securities lending business, closed-end funds will become collateral for margin financing and securities lending business and enjoy a high discount ratio of 80% equal to that of national debt. Based on dividends and high discount rate, their stable income will become the most valuable bargaining chip in brokerage business. If financing is carried out according to the ratio of 1: 2, it will inevitably attract short-term funds to leverage and greatly ease the redemption pressure.

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