From the perspective of international economy and trade
According to the forecast of the International Monetary Fund, the international economic trend will still maintain steady growth in 2006. The growth rate of the United States will reach 3.6%, the global growth rate will reach 4.3%, and the GDP growth rate of China will also remain above 8.5%.
Economic strength has promoted the increase of world trade volume. In 2003, the total value of international trade was 15.35 trillion US dollars, and in 2004 it rose to 18.58 trillion US dollars, an increase of 2 1%. In 2005, it reached $265,438 +0. 1.462 trillion. In international trade, "China factor" is the biggest bright spot. In 2004, the total value of China's import and export, export and import were11547.4 billion US dollars, 593.36 billion US dollars and 56 138 billion US dollars respectively, with year-on-year growth of 35.7%, 35.4% and 36% respectively. The total value of imports and exports exceeded the level of 1 trillion dollars for the first time. In 2005, the import and export trade volume of goods reached 1422 1 billion US dollars, ranking third in the world in terms of total import and export value. In addition, the proportion of China in world trade has increased, and the proportion of exports has increased from 6.5% in 2004 to 7.3%, an increase of 0.8 percentage points; The proportion of imports increased from 5.9% to 6. 1%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points. China's import and export trade shows a good growth momentum and continues to play an important role in international trade.
From the perspective of the international shipping market
The international dry bulk market BDI index 200 1 1 fell to 845 points, the lowest point in the whole year. In 2002, the index rose slightly, but the increase was not big, and it closed at 173 1 at the end of the year. There was a sharp increase in the second half of 2003, with 65438+ 10 soaring to 4470 points and closing at 4467 points at the end of the year. In 2004, it maintained a good growth momentum, reaching the highest point of 6 10 1 and closing at 4438 at the end of the year. It reached the highest point of 4,956 points in March 2005 and closed at 232 1 point at the end of the year. Since 2002, the total amount of dry bulk cargo has shown an accelerated upward trend. Due to the global economic development, there is a great demand for bulk basic raw materials, such as iron ore and coal, and the transportation volume has increased rapidly. Among them, China, as one of the countries with the fastest economic development in the world, has played a very important role. In recent 10 years, the average annual growth rate of China's bulk and dry bulk transportation is 17%, which is much higher than the international market level. 70% of the increase in the world dry bulk transportation market comes from China. Take iron ore as an example. In 2003, China's import volume reached 1.48 billion tons, accounting for 28.5% of the global shipping volume. In 2004, the global iron ore transportation volume was 600 million tons, and China imported 208 million tons, accounting for 34.6%. In 2005, due to the influence of national regulation and control, the growth rate declined, but there was still 60 million tons of new demand, and the annual import volume reached 248 million tons, with a growth rate of about 20%. It can be predicted that the international dry bulk shipping market will continue to grow in 2006, with an average annual growth rate of 6%, driven by the huge engine of China.
In terms of oil transportation, the world economy is highly dependent on oil. According to experts' calculation, every time the global economy grows 1%, it needs the support of 400,000 barrels of oil every day. As the main way of oil transportation, waterway transportation has completed 92% of oil trade. In 2003, the global shipping volume of crude oil was 65.438+0.6 billion tons, which was further increased in 2004. It is estimated that the average growth rate of international crude oil transportation from 2005 to 2007 is about 3%. China's oil demand has risen sharply in recent years, and it has become the second largest oil consumer and importer in the world in 2004. In 2003, China imported 9 1 1.2 million tons of crude oil, accounting for 5.4% of the global crude oil trade. In 2004, China imported 654.38+0.22 billion tons of crude oil, which exceeded the 654.38+0 billion tons mark for the first time. In 2005, the consumption of crude oil exceeded 300 million tons, and the gap between supply and demand will further widen. In 2005, crude oil imports reached 65.438+0.27 billion tons. It is predicted that the demand for oil in China will keep growing at a high speed in the next few years, which will have an increasing impact on international oil shipping.
In terms of container transportation, the volume of container trade has increased rapidly since 2002, driven by the Pacific route and the Asia-Europe route. In 2003, the total volume of international container trade was 79 million TEU, up 8.2% year-on-year. In 2004, the growth rate rose to 1 1%, reaching 87.7 million TEUs. In 2005, the volume of the Pacific route will increase by 65,438+02%, the Asia-Europe route will increase by 65,438+05%, and the Atlantic route will remain stable with little increase. In 2005, the total container capacity will increase by about 65,438+00% on the original basis. China's container traffic accounts for about 20% of the world's total, and it accounts for more than 60% on the eastbound Pacific route and the westbound Asia-Europe route. In 2005, the container throughput of China reached 75.8 million TEU, with a growth rate of 23.7%, which was higher than the world average.
From the point of view of fleet construction
There are 5,700 dry bulk carriers with gross tonnage 1000 tons and deadweight tonnage of 296.348 million tons, which are distributed in hundreds of shipping companies. China Shipping Company owns 579 ships with 24.405 million dwt. The shipping companies in Hong Kong have 2,665,438+0 ships, 65,438+0,865,438+0.9 million dwt. The transportation capacity of China and Hongkong is 42.596 million dwt, accounting for 14.4% of the world. There are 23 1 shipping companies engaged in international shipping in China, with a total capacity of over 2,265,438+10,000 dwt, ranking ninth in the world. China shipping enterprises have set up hundreds of wholly-owned and joint venture shipping enterprises and offices abroad, and the proportion of goods carried by third countries is increasing. .