Lebanon is experiencing the worst economic crisis in its history. This crisis began with the banking crisis of 2065438+September 2009. Dollars previously deposited in banks are called "old dollars" in Lebanon. These dollar accounts are all frozen, and depositors can only exchange them for Lebanese pounds at a rate far lower than the black market.
In order to withdraw "old dollars" from accounts, there have been many cases of depositors robbing banks in Lebanon, and five cases occurred in September 16 alone.
On September 4, 2022/KLOC-0, local time, in Beirut, the capital of Lebanon, toy pistols used by depositors to attack banks were thrown on the ground.
Image source: vision china (00068 1)
Affected by depositors, all banks in Lebanon continue to close.
According to CCTV news reported on September 22, there have been many incidents in which depositors attacked banks in Lebanon recently.
Last week, depositors attacked at least 10 banks, demanding the return of frozen account deposits, and some people got their money back as they wished. During the period from 19 to 2 1, all banks in Lebanon were closed. In a statement issued on the evening of February1,the Lebanese Banking Association said that the current social atmosphere tends to use violence, and security measures are lacking, so the personal safety of bank employees and depositors cannot be guaranteed. After close communication with relevant government agencies, the Banking Association decided to extend the closure period.
Image source: vision china
Since 20 19, Lebanon has been in economic difficulties, and has been hit by COVID-19 epidemic and Beirut port explosion. In addition, the formation of the government is deadlocked and it is impossible to obtain large-scale international assistance, which leads to a sharp depreciation of the currency, high inflation, shortage of basic materials such as fuel, medicine and electricity, and increased risk of social unrest.
Since the banking crisis in 20 19, the black market exchange rate of Lebanese pound against the US dollar has been falling. On September 12, the Bank of Lebanon cancelled the exchange rate subsidy for gasoline imports. The sharp increase in market demand for US dollars aggravated the depreciation of the Lebanese pound.
Due to the shortage of foreign exchange, the Lebanese government has taken a series of measures to limit the flow of funds. Banks refuse to pay "hard currency" such as US dollars to domestic depositors who withdraw foreign exchange deposits, and only allow them to pay in local currency Lebanese pounds. The exchange rate is much lower than the black market price.
The Lebanese Depositors' Association said earlier: "A war to recover deposits has begun." According to the Global Times, in the past week, seven banks were targeted by depositors, and some depositors tried to "grab" deposits from banks with real or fake guns.
According to CCTV News, Global Times and BBC June 14, this month, a woman threatened the bank with a toy gun to get back her savings to pay for her family's cancer treatment. Although the woman was immediately arrested by the police, she became a "hero" on local social media. Beirut resident Kara told AFP: "She has the right to do so. If I were as brave as her, I would do the same. "
On September 4, 2022/KLOC-0, local time, in Beirut, Lebanon, a Lebanese policeman stood at the bank window, and depositors attacked the bank to withdraw money and broke the window. Image source: vision china
Since then, similar incidents have been staged continuously, and the media reported at least 5 cases on 16. Public opinion sympathizes with these perpetrators and thinks that these people with no criminal record are forced by life.
Lebanon counted on the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to provide aid loans to ease its financial difficulties, but the latter issued a statement on 2 1 criticizing the Lebanese government for its "slow reform".
The delegation of the International Monetary Fund has just concluded a three-day visit to Beirut, and inspected the progress of Lebanon's reform in accordance with the agreement reached between the two sides in April this year. The conclusion is "unsatisfactory". "Although Lebanon urgently needs to take action to solve the deep-seated economic and social crisis, the implementation process of reform is still very slow." The statement said.
According to the agreement reached between the two sides, Lebanon should implement five key reforms, including restructuring the financial system, reforming the financial system, restructuring the debt to grandfather, and introducing strong anti-corruption and anti-money laundering measures. Otherwise, the IMF will not allocate loans.
In response to the recent impact of depositors on Lebanese banks, the IMF mentioned that the huge losses suffered by Lebanese banks need to be "recognized and resolved" and the rights and interests of small depositors should be fully protected.
Amin Salam, Minister of Economy and Trade of Lebanon's caretaker Cabinet, said on the 20th that Lebanon hopes to implement the reforms required by the IMF in order to get about $4 billion in urgently needed assistance before the end of 10, and pave the way for assistance from other countries and international institutions, but only if all domestic parties show sufficient "political will". The governor of the Central Bank of Lebanon had previously estimated that the country needed at least $654.38+0.2 billion to revive its economy.
The interest rate hike in the United States has led to the devaluation of many currencies and high inflation.
According to the Global Times reported on the 20th, although AFP blamed the chaos in Lebanon on the serious economic crisis and government corruption, the direct cause was that with the strengthening of the US dollar, the Lebanese currency depreciated by more than 90% in the past three years. The Wall Street Journal said that the world is now facing a "worrying phenomenon"-even the efforts of developed economies such as Japan, South Korea, Britain and the European Union to defend their currencies are "basically ineffective" in the face of the continued appreciation of the US dollar.
The Wall Street Journal reported that the US dollar index has risen by more than 65,438+04% this year. With the strong rise of the US dollar, the exchange rates of euro, pound and yen against the US dollar fell to the lowest point in decades: from 1 to August this year, the euro depreciated 12%, the pound depreciated 14% and the yen depreciated 17%. The currencies of emerging market countries and developing countries even suffered heavy losses: the Egyptian pound fell by 18%, and the Hungarian currency forint fell by 20%.
In the early morning of September 22nd, Beijing time, the Federal Open Market Committee of the Federal Reserve announced that it would raise the federal funds rate by 75 basis points. This is the fifth time the Fed has raised interest rates this year, and it is also the third time in a row that it has raised interest rates by 75 basis points. On the morning of September 22nd, USD/JPY once broke through the important psychological barrier of 145, and the Bank of Japan finally intervened in the foreign exchange market again after 24 years. At the same time, at 9: 00 local time on the 22nd (8: 00 Beijing time), the exchange rate of the Korean won against the US dollar fell below the 1400 to 1 mark in intraday trading on the 22nd, setting a new record of 13.
"The Korean business community has entered a state of emergency." "Korean News" said that the biggest concern about the exchange rate is the aviation industry. For every 65,438+00 won increase in the exchange rate of the US dollar against the Korean won, Korean Air and Asiana Airlines will lose 35 billion won and 28.4 billion won respectively. Although some export enterprises, such as the automobile industry, can ensure price competitiveness through the depreciation of the won, most enterprises, such as auto parts enterprises that need to import raw materials, will suffer even greater losses as the exchange rate of the US dollar rises.
"Japan returned to 30 years ago", and the Nihon Keizai Shimbun reported on June 5438+09 that according to the forecast of the OECD, Japan's nominal GDP this year may reach 553 trillion yen. Calculated by 1 USD 140 yen, Japan's GDP is about 3.9 trillion USD, which is lower than 4 trillion USD for the first time in 30 years since 1992. In the past 30 years, the global GDP has quadrupled, and Japan, which previously accounted for more than 0/5% of the global share/kloc-0, now accounts for only nearly 4%. Japan's GDP in 20 12 exceeded 6 trillion US dollars, 80% higher than that of Germany, but at present the two countries are basically the same. The Nikkei average has fallen by 20% this year. Wages in Japan have also returned to 30 years ago, making Japan's purchasing power and talent attraction decline. The report quoted Yukio Noguchi, honorary professor of hitotsubashi university in Japan, as saying: "Currency devaluation will reduce Japan's national strength. It will be difficult to attract overseas talents and hinder economic growth. "
According to CCTV news, the currencies of many countries in the Middle East have also continued to depreciate sharply recently, and the inflation rate has been soaring, which has seriously affected the national economy and people's lives.
On September 20th, the exchange rate of Turkish lira against the US dollar was about 18.3 1 to 1, which was over 50% lower than that of a year ago and over 35% lower than that of the beginning of this year.
Since 1997, Lebanon has been implementing a fixed exchange rate policy of linking the Lebanese pound to the US dollar. The official exchange rate has been kept at around 1500 to 1, but the black market exchange rate has been falling continuously recently. On 19, it fell to around 39,000 to 1, a record low.
On the same day, the Syrian central bank adjusted the official exchange rate of the Syrian pound against the US dollar from 28 14 to 1 to 30 15 to 1, and the local black market exchange rate has reached 4400 to 1.
Even in Egypt, where the local currency is relatively strong, the exchange rate of the Egyptian pound against the US dollar has fallen by more than 20% in the past six months.
Although the local currency depreciated sharply, the inflation rate in many countries in the Middle East continued to soar. According to statistics from Turkish Statistics Bureau, the country's consumer price index (CPI) rose by 80.2 1% in August, a 24-year high. Tunisia's inflation rate rose continuously 1 1 month, reaching 8.6% in August, the highest level in 30 years. Israel's annualized inflation rate rose to 5.2% in July this year, the highest since June 2008 when it was 65,438+10.
The recent increase in interest rates by the Federal Reserve is the direct cause of the continued devaluation of currencies and rising inflation in many Middle Eastern countries. In addition, some countries' own economic structures are fragile, or years of war have led to political instability, which has led to weak economic growth and is more susceptible to external factors. Currency devaluation and high inflation have seriously affected the lives of ordinary people in the Middle East. Stern, head of emerging market research at Oxford Economic Research Institute, said that some emerging market countries are at the critical point of economic crisis. "If the dollar appreciates further, it will be the last straw to crush the camel."