On February 27th, Lubomai Fund issued the first Public Offering of Fund product-Lubomai Escort One-year Bond Securities Investment Fund. Under this round of financial opening-up, this institution is the second newly established wholly foreign-owned Public Offering of Fund approved to start business after BlackRock Fund. The following small series brings Lubomai, the first product of foreign public offering debt base, and I hope you like it.
Lubomai, the first product of foreign public offering debt.
After several sharp shocks in the bond market, including foreign investment in Public Offering of Fund, how will the institution lay out the domestic bond market this year? In the previous two years, "fixed income+"was popular, but the equity part of "+"did not increase the income, but increased the product fluctuation. How can we achieve real "stability+"instead of "fluctuation+"?
In this regard, CBN exclusively interviewed Ru Ping, deputy general manager of Lubomai Fund, and Zhou Ping, general manager of quantitative investment department of Lubomai Fund. In their view, the future interest rate bonds may be in a range fluctuation pattern, and the core of "fixed income+"is to control risks. As long-term foreign capital is expected to gradually return to the China stock market, there will be opportunities for growth stocks and value stocks this year.
"Fixed Income+"or "Steady+"
Asset allocation remains the focus of "fixed income plus". Zhou Ping said: "The core of adopting the risk parity model is to make the contribution of different assets to portfolio risk consistent. Its core is to allocate low-risk assets and low-risk assets. When the risk of a certain kind of assets gradually increases, the allocation model will actively reduce the allocation ratio of such assets, and when the risk of such assets gradually decreases, the allocation model will increase the allocation ratio of such assets. Determining the proportion of shares and debts with a scientific model is the key to ensuring that the combination crosses the bulls and bears. "
How to deal with the rights and interests of "+"is the focus of attention. Zhou Ping said that "fixed income+"does not simply increase the exposure of several stocks. "The products issued by Lubomai Fund this time are not aimed at other stock products, but bonds. The core is to control risks and steadily surpass bond yields. This goal is not so easy to achieve. In the past 12, the CSI 800 total income index even underperformed bonds, which was much more risky. "
In his view, "steady income+"needs "steady+"instead of "big opening+""Our stock part consists of two quantitative strategies (dividend and growth), each holding 45 to 50 shares, but there will be some overlapping stocks in the two strategies, and the total number of shares held is about 80 to 90."
Ru Ping said that for the bond part, the highest proportion of credit bonds will not exceed half, and only high-quality bonds will be selected, and no income will be obtained through credit sinking, and no credit default risk will be assumed. The overall portfolio will maintain a high liquidity, which is convenient for active adjustment and response to market fluctuations.
Increase interest rate bonds when overshooting, and temporarily avoid real estate bonds to invest in bonds.
Specific to the bond strategy, at present, the yield of China's 10-year government bonds is 2.929%. In the eyes of most institutions, with the economic recovery, it is difficult to actively look at the bond market. On June 5,438+10, the scale of custody of major securities of overseas institutions decreased by106.6 billion yuan (an increase of 5,765.438+billion yuan last month), the largest decline since March 2022. However, Ru Ping believes that interest rate bonds are more likely to be in a range fluctuation pattern.
"At present, major institutions predict that the GDP growth rate of China will be in the range of 5%~5.6% this year. If China's potential economic growth rate is 5%, where is the interest rate center? From the historical data, basically the central region is 2.95%, slightly higher than the current level. If the economic recovery exceeds expectations, the growth rate will reach 5.5%, the interest rate center will be around 3. 15%, and the highest may reach 3.4%. " He said that it is indeed expected that the interest rate center will go up, but the range is very limited. Once overshooted, there will be opportunities to add positions, so "interval operation" is still the main line.
In Ru Ping's view, because China's medium and long-term economic growth and slow decline in population base are the general trend, unlike stocks, the price of interest rate bonds will still be restored in the medium term with high probability after oversold.
Compared with the unsatisfactory interest rate bonds, the recent trend of credit bonds is positive. However, Ru Ping said that he still does not hold exposed real estate bonds and urban investment bonds. The "three arrows" support policy is offered, and the real estate industry is expected to stabilize. However, it remains to be seen whether the sales end can stabilize. The organization expects that leading real estate enterprises with significant credit advantages and excellent brands will eventually benefit. In addition, the price increase of real estate bonds of real estate enterprises has been large, and there is limited room for further growth.
"At present, the investment in real estate bonds is more based on the holding-to-maturity strategy of the main credit qualification, and the space for trading strategy is already very small. However, compared with the improvement of fundamentals, the current prices of some weakly qualified entities are overvalued, so we believe that the attractiveness of the layout is still insufficient. " Ru Ping said.
As far as urban investment bonds are concerned, the areas represented by Zunyi still face greater debt pressure after the extension of bank loans. The repayment of principal and interest of bonds still needs government coordination, and some institutions do not expect to rule out the possibility of coordinated extension of non-public offering bonds. However, the mainstream view is that there is no systemic risk in the context of economic recovery, and urban investment bonds in some areas have allocation value.
Ru Ping said that even high-quality urban investment bonds are not attractive at present, and there is a risk of being "affected" by risky events. In contrast, the industrial bonds of some central enterprises and state-owned enterprises have more advantages.
"Previously, the market expected the SGX to break, which led to the re-pricing of the urban investment bond market. At the beginning of last year, financial management lacked assets, and city investment only paid for the blessing of faith. For better or worse, the spread of urban investment bonds has been pushed to a very low position, laying the groundwork for the redemption tide caused by poor net financial management of banks in the second half of last year. Under the background of expanding domestic demand this year, the city investment platform is still an important part of the government to increase leverage and expand credit, and there will be no rapid and comprehensive city investment credit crisis. However, the risk of regional, phased and sub-variety extension negotiations has increased, which may lead to a callback of high-quality urban investment bonds. " Ru Ping said.
Both value stocks and growth stocks have opportunities.
Since the beginning of the year, foreign capital has poured into the bond market in China, with a cumulative net inflow of more than 654.38+050 billion yuan. However, the market has fluctuated in recent years, and the future allocation of international institutions has also attracted much attention.
Zhou Ping believes that long-term foreign investment is still expected to gradually return to the China stock market, and there will be opportunities for growth stocks and value stocks this year. As far as value stocks are concerned, especially the traditional industry leaders of state-owned enterprises with high dividends, the absolute income opportunities are very good. At present, the dividend yield of CSI dividend index exceeds 7%, which is the highest 5% in the past decade, and its investment value is outstanding.
"At present, the ultra-low valuation of such traditional state-owned enterprise leaders is not the result of the deterioration of fundamentals, but reflects the preferences of investors for a long time in the past. In fact, the fundamentals of such enterprises are sound, and dividends are also rising year by year, but the profit growth rate is not high. In the context of reshaping the valuation system of state-owned enterprises, the valuation of such enterprises may be partially repaired this year. The increase in valuation and high dividend yield mean that such value stocks have considerable opportunities this year. " Zhou Ping said.
Standing at the current point in time, Zhou Ping believes that there are four investment opportunities in the A-share market. The first is health care. Last year, the plate was affected by factors such as concentrated mining and epidemic situation, and its valuation was at the bottom. Now it faces greater investment opportunities. Followed by advanced manufacturing and innovative technology, this sector belongs to the direction of policy encouragement. At the same time, after a long period of accumulation, China enterprises have made breakthroughs in some fields, such as new energy and new materials. Thirdly, under the background of strong recovery of real estate sales, the real estate industry chain will also exceed expectations. Finally, the low-valued state-owned shares represented by banks. This kind of variety has stable fundamentals, relatively good competition pattern, stable dividend yield, low valuation and controllable downside risks.