In 2020, my country's pensions have achieved "16 consecutive increases." This pension increase is mainly for the elderly who retired before December 31, 2019, and the elderly who retired this year did not enjoy the pension increase. So this type of pension increase What people are most concerned about now is whether pensions can achieve 17 consecutive increases in 2021?

I think it will continue to increase, but the adjustment ratio may be reduced, for the following four reasons: First, look at prices. According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, the CPI in the first three quarters of 2020 increased by 3.3% compared with the same period last year.

An important macroeconomic indicator of changes in the price level of "consumer goods and services" related to life. The increase in CPI means that our prices are rising, and it also means that the purchasing power of our currency is decreasing. What 100 yuan could buy before

Things may cost 103 yuan now. As prices rise, the wages of retired people should also rise simultaneously to ensure the current quality of life.

Second, when adjusting pensions for retired people, we should also refer to the annual salary income level based on income. In 2019, the per capita disposable income of national residents was 30,733 yuan. After deducting price factors, the actual year-on-year increase was 5.8%. The pension adjustment level in 2020 is

5%, there is not much difference between the two.

In the first three quarters of 2020, the per capita disposable income of residents across the country was 23,781 yuan, an actual year-on-year increase of 0.6% after deducting price factors. Compared with the end of last year, the wage increase has dropped significantly. This is mainly due to the impact of the epidemic at the beginning of this year.

Companies cannot hold on and collapse, and many people are unemployed, laid off, and have their salaries reduced, resulting in a decline in the average social wage, low salary increases for employees, and a decrease in pension adjustments for retirees. Therefore, I think pensions in 2021

The increase will not exceed 5%.

Third, in order to cope with the impact of the epidemic, the state has exempted and exempted three social insurance contributions: enterprise pension, work-related injury, and unemployment. Many people are worried that this will drain their family wealth and affect the normal payment of pensions in the future.

However, according to the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security, the total income of pension insurance funds in the first three quarters of this year was 2.1 trillion yuan, the total expenditure was 2.8 trillion yuan, and the cumulative balance of the fund was 4.5 trillion yuan.

From the perspective of capital reserves, it can fully ensure that pensions are paid out on time in the future and provide support for pension increases.

Fourth, looking at the policy, there have been three new changes in social security this year: First, employees during the probation period must pay social security, which will help increase the insurance participation rate and enrich the pension insurance fund account; second, the tax bureau collects social security fees uniformly, and the tax bureau

With the real salary data of employees in hand, after the tax bureau collects social security, it can not only solve the long-standing problem of false payment, but also urge enterprises to pay social security on time and ensure the liquidity of pension insurance funds; third, by the end of 2020,

To fully realize provincial-level co-ordination of pension insurance, the next step is national co-ordination, and the efficiency of pension mobilization will be further improved.

All these measures provide ample possibility for pension increases next year.

But the increase may be lower than this year's 5%.

So after the 17th consecutive pension increase, who can get more increases?

I think there are four types of people: First, people who have paid contributions for a long time. In order to encourage employees to pay more, the state will provide more pensions to people who have paid contributions for a long time.

The second is the elderly retirees. The older they get, the less capable they are of working and their own resistance. They are more likely to get sick, and their expenditure on medical treatment and medicine increases. In order to care for the elderly, the state will also give more pensions to elderly retirees.

pension.

The third is retirees in hard-to-reach areas. In order to attract more outstanding talents, hard-to-reach areas will have additional subsidies for both current employees and retired people.

The fourth is people with high pensions. Our country’s pensions follow the principle of paying more and getting more, paying more and getting more. Therefore, these people with high pensions have paid for a long time and have a high payment base. From the perspective of fairness, they should also

More pension increases for them.