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Will China Merchants Industrial Bond A lose money?
I will.

The probability of long-term loss of bond funds is very low, but it is not an absolute guarantee. The biggest risk here is the risk of default. If the bonds with heavy positions in the bond fund default, the consequences will be quite serious.

If the bond defaults, it may lose everything, but the bond fund itself has low returns. This part of the loss is undoubtedly very difficult to earn back with other principal, so bond funds are not sure to make a loss.

Interest rates also have a certain impact on bond funds, but they are all short-term.