According to a study by Zhao Jinhui, a professor at the National Development Research Institute of Peking University, if China does not raise the retirement age, by 2050, the younger generation will need to spend 4 1% of their income to support the elderly. Under the current pay-as-you-go system, endowment insurance has become a tug-of-war between two generations. With the deterioration of the system dependency ratio, if the elderly are unwilling to make more contributions, such as reducing pensions or delaying retirement, then young people will have to bear a higher "tax rate" for old-age care. Delaying retirement is very important to alleviate the influence of aging and reduce the economic burden of young workers. Debate on delaying retirement: If you can't support yourself, it means that others have to bear the corresponding pension costs, and even if this cost is paid in the form of pension, under the current pay-as-you-go pension system, it still means that young people have to bear the passed-on pension costs. In this sense, it is an indisputable fact that young people have to bear the "tax rate" of providing for the aged whether they like it or not, whether they admit it or not. As for not lowering the pension or delaying retirement, young people will have to bear higher and higher "pension tax", which is by no means shocking, just replacing the familiar "old-age dependency ratio" with a new expression. The dependency ratio of the elderly decreased from 2065438+4.9 in 2000 to 1.4 in 2050. It is not surprising that the increasingly top-heavy dependency ratio has turned into an increasingly heavy "pension tax" on the shoulders of young people. However, compared with the slightly distant dependency ratio, it is really easier to feel the same after being converted into "pension tax". After all, all taxes have to be pulled up painfully. When maintaining the same pension or retirement age means that young people have to bear more and more heavy "pension tax" for this, it will inevitably divide the surging public opinion in support of delaying retirement. Young people are counting on their fingers, and delaying retirement may reduce the pressure and may turn to support delaying retirement. The concept of "pension tax" is expected to win more supporters for pension policy changes such as delayed retirement, thus making delayed retirement more reasonable and reducing resistance. Regarding the remarks about "delaying retirement to reduce the burden on young people", it should be admitted that how to achieve the balance of dependency ratio is indeed a very difficult problem for any aging society, and delaying retirement age is likely to be a last resort. In this respect, the most typical one is Japan, where a lot of service jobs are not reserved for handsome guys and beautiful women, but are held by grandparents for a long time. If these old people retire on time, go home to play with their grandchildren and stop serving the people, the impact on Japan's economy and society can naturally be imagined. I am afraid that the younger generation in Japan will not only bear the embarrassing burden of "pension tax", but also face the economic recession aggravated by the sharp decline in labor force. It's no exaggeration to call it worse. However, the benefits of delaying retirement are not difficult to enumerate. In addition to reducing the burden on young people and reducing the impact of the fading demographic dividend, there is even evidence that continuing to work is even conducive to alleviating aging and maintaining health. However, none of these can actually be reasons for delaying retirement, not to mention it is not difficult to find the opposite argument. What is even more unavoidable is that delaying retirement itself is a violation of the contractual relationship of the retirement system. Even if the original retirement age commitment is unsustainable due to various objective factors, there should be no liability for breach of contract. Delayed retirement must also have an acceptable compensation mechanism, and it must not be unilaterally breached because of increasing the burden of "pension tax" for young people. As for "delaying retirement to reduce the burden on young people", in fact, any policy adjustment should have a sense of compensation for the injured party, which is not only the embodiment of the contractual spirit of the policy side, but also the credibility of the policy and even the government. Who should bear the "pension tax" more? In fact, the road to "delayed retirement" is endless. Instead of expressing care for calves untimely, it is better to explore the possibility of using state-owned enterprise dividends to sit in pension accounts to fill past deficits, so that the "pension tax" will not be passed down from generation to generation and realize self-responsibility.

Legal objectivity:

Recently, Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security announced that due to the huge pension insurance gap, China plans to gradually raise the legal retirement age to 65-delaying retirement age will increase the pension fund by 4 billion yuan every year and reduce the fund gap by 20 billion yuan. But therefore, "delayed retirement" is a "powerful medicine" to ease the balance of pensions, which not only can't cure the disease, but even brings inevitable side effects. From 65438 to 0997, the China Municipal Government formulated the Decision on Establishing a Unified Basic Old-age Insurance System for Enterprise Employees, and began to establish a unified basic old-age insurance system for urban enterprise employees throughout the country. However, 1998, half of the provinces and cities in China are unable to make ends meet. According to the data of child labor in the Ministry of Labor and Social Security, by the end of 2005, the empty account of China's pension funds had reached 800 billion yuan, and it was expanded by more than 654.38 billion yuan every year. By the end of 20 10, the national personal pension account should have assets of1959.6 billion yuan, but actually only 203.9 billion yuan, resulting in a gap of1755.7 billion yuan that needs to be repaid by the government. According to an estimate of the World Bank, from 200 1 to 2075, the pension gap in China may reach 9 trillion yuan. At present, the most optimistic estimate of China's pension gap is that the gap will reach 3 trillion yuan. From 2000 to 2008, the average CPI in China was 2.2%. Faced with the same inflation rate of 2.2%, the pension money has actually depreciated. At present, the only investment channels of social security five-insurance fund are depositing in banks and buying government bonds. The nominal rate of return of less than 2% is probably the lowest in the world. At present, the retirement ages of men and women in China are 60 and 55 respectively. If the retirement age of 65 is implemented from this year and raised by one year every three years, China's demographic dividend will last until 2027. During the period of 15, even excluding inflation, aging population and other factors that increase pension expenditure, the scale of empty accounts reached 2.72 trillion yuan. How can we fill this empty account with a yield of less than 2%? The big problem facing the old-age care system in China lies in the disparity in social security benefits between urban and rural areas, between regions, between government agencies and enterprises, and between different groups, and even some people have no protection. At the beginning of 20 10, Mercer released the global pension index, which covers the private and public pension systems of five continents 1 1 countries. After analyzing and comparing more than 40 indicators in three categories, China's index ranks second from the bottom, only better than Japanese. Mercer believes: "In a better pension system, social pension insurance should be able to cover more than 80% of the population, while China currently has only about 25%, even in cities with high coverage, such as Beijing and Shanghai, it is only about 50%." It is not only natural for the next generation to bear the burden of the previous generation, but also a common practice in all countries of the world. What we need to do is to solve the increasing burden brought by the aging population to the next generation. As Zheng Gongcheng, a professor at Renmin University of China, said: "As long as the national overall planning system is fully covered, the system can achieve its own balance of payments in the next 30 years or so, and the crisis of pension payment can be avoided." At present, 25 provinces and cities in China have achieved provincial-level overall planning, but this is only a book overall planning, not a substantive overall planning. In 20 10, the state plans to carry out pilot projects of new rural social endowment insurance in 320 counties. However, because the transition channel between the new rural insurance, the urban housing insurance and the basic old-age insurance for urban workers has not been completely opened, the participation rate of migrant workers has not been significantly improved. In this case, if retirement is delayed, the work of expanding the coverage of basic old-age insurance will be greatly affected. Delaying retirement age may make many people who are not covered by the system refuse to participate in insurance. The low coverage of endowment insurance naturally reduces the income of endowment insurance. National finance is the main person in charge of social security, but before the Twelfth Five-Year Plan, the financial expenditure on social security remained below 10% for many years, while the administrative expenditure in the same period was as high as 1/5. Compared with Japan and Canada, social security expenditure in the same period exceeded 30% of public finance, which was obviously too low. Therefore, reducing "three public consumption" and increasing "social security expenditure" should be the primary way to alleviate the problem of social security funds. What's more, the early state-owned enterprises generally took "low wages and no social security" as the cost, and the pension promised by the government was not fulfilled. Now, it is inevitable that the pressure on social security funds will continue to increase. The endless stream of social security cases across the country has also made public power constantly questioned. Since 1993, 890 million yuan of pension insurance in Guangzhou has been misappropriated and cannot be fully recovered; In June 2003, the staff of Taiyuan Finance Bureau misappropriated 86.09 million yuan of social security fund; In 2006, Zhu Junyi, the former director of Shanghai Labor and Social Security Bureau, illegally misappropriated the social security fund of 3.2 billion yuan. Comparatively speaking, the retirement age of the national insured is delayed by one year, and the pension fund is only increased by 4 billion yuan. At present, there are two parallel pension systems in China's "dual-track pension system". One is the retirement system of government agencies and institutions, in which individuals do not have to pay social security, but are paid by finance; The other is the "payment-type" overall planning system of social enterprise units, in which units and employees themselves pay 20% of the total wages according to the whole length of service. This inequality makes it increasingly difficult for the government to pay for civil servants' pensions. In 20 10, the government's financial transfer payment to retired civil servants was 21800 million yuan, accounting for 5.4% of GDP. In recent years, the huge inequality of retirement benefits has caused widespread dissatisfaction among the people. 20 1 10, Huang, a representative of Guangzhou Municipal People's Congress, broke the news: department-level civil servants can get 7000-8000 yuan/month, and the monthly salary of enterprise managers is more than 1000 yuan, but the upper limit for retirement is 1700 yuan/month. Without solving the social security fairness and justice inside and outside the system, there is no solution to the problem of social security deficit. There is no accumulation of personal accounts without payment in the system, but pensions should be paid in the form of accumulation. Nobody pays the bill, which is a gap in itself. At the end of last century, a large number of state-owned enterprises declared bankruptcy due to poor management. During the three years from 1998 to 200 1, the number of employees in state-owned enterprises decreased from 2.86 million to 2.33 million, with a reduction rate of 24.4%, while the retired population increased from 1 1500 to1900,000. Most employees of state-owned enterprises try to retire as early as possible and enjoy pension benefits as early as possible. During the five years from 1999 to 2003, the number of early retirees reached 20% of the current retirees. However, among the new retirees in 12 big cities, nearly13 have retired early. Some people who retire early are in good health, but they often retire on the grounds of losing their ability to work; There are also some executives who retire early in the name of special types of work. For those who have retired or retired early and need to pay their own pensions, delaying retirement is really bad news. They have to pay more, but get less. Most scholars take the extension of life expectancy as one of the main bases when demonstrating the rationality of delaying retirement age in China. However, according to the data, the average life expectancy of the elderly over 60 years old in China increased from 1980 to 2000, but it is still far lower than that in developed countries. If the retirement age is pushed to 65, the average life expectancy of China people is 72, and they can only get seven years of old-age security after retirement. Suppose he works at the age of 25, according to the insurance standard of 40 years, the average premium is 3,000 yuan/year *40 years =120,000 yuan, and the guaranteed salary after retirement is 6,000 yuan/year *7 years = 42,000 yuan, resulting in a loss of 78,000 yuan out of thin air. On September 6th, 20 10, Shanghai issued the Trial Opinions on Resilience of Applying for Basic Pensions for Various Talents in Enterprises in this Municipality, and tried out the policy of "Flexible Retirement" to treat workers in different industries differently. Let some manual workers with tired work and low income get relief and enjoy early retirement. But for China at present, this policy will only involve a small scope. Because private enterprises employ people, there are few age restrictions. As long as it is useful to the enterprise, you can still go to work. Therefore, this policy involves very few people, such as state-owned enterprises. In the ranks of civil servants, institutions, state-owned enterprises and monopoly industries, most of them are contract workers at present, but there are often some "regular employees" who retire to the second line but enjoy privileges. Lack of necessary industry supervision and assessment system, delayed retirement provides convenient conditions for these privileged employees and other people with backgrounds to continue to enjoy the privilege for five years. It also provides an excellent reason for leaders to "love officials" and "love posts". Although the demographic dividend in China gradually disappeared from 20 12, aging does not mean that there is a shortage of labor in China. At present, the China market still needs people who have paid social security to continuously increase the payment period and reduce the collection period to fill the bottomless social security deficit. According to the data released by Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security, in 20 1 1 year, there were 122 1 10,000 new jobs in cities and towns, 5.53 million unemployed people re-employed, 0.8 million people with employment difficulties, and 4 1% registered unemployment rate in cities and towns. Assuming that the average retirement age in China is extended by five years, it may involve tens of millions of people every year. On the one hand, a large number of jobs cannot be vacated, on the other hand, it is difficult to solve them through new development jobs. This not only means a great waste of human resources, but also means the difficulty of pension accumulation in the future. In this way, when the young labor force enters old age, its pension problem will become a more difficult social problem to solve. Different from most countries that implement flexible delayed retirement system, at present, age is a very important threshold for many employers in China. "4050" groups generally encounter employment difficulties. In this regard, there is no special anti-employment discrimination law in China at present, and the definition of employment in the existing laws is too narrow-the provisions on employment discrimination in the Labor Law mainly include gender, religion, race, nationality, and even no provisions on age discrimination. The overall marketization of economy has fundamentally changed people's employment status and concept. Many people find it difficult to stay in a job, and unemployment and changing jobs are increasing. Delaying the retirement age makes it impossible to guarantee the fair employment rights of elderly employees. Unlike developed countries, which "get rich first, then get old", China, which is not yet rich, has rapidly entered an aging society. Wage earners who have worked hard for half their lives have a more urgent need for pensions, which are almost all sources of income, and are more sensitive to the issue of fairness. Before the relevant social security and labor relations are straightened out, rashly delaying retirement is likely to be the last straw to overwhelm hope. (Source: Huasheng Online Author: Ze Qing)