On April 12, before the United States, Britain and France launched military strikes on Syria, German Chancellor Merkel stated at a press conference with the President of Denmark that Germany would not participate in military operations, but would support any form of international anti-convention forces.

efforts to use weapons of mass destruction.

After the airstrike was carried out, she affirmed the actions of her allies, calling it "appropriate and necessary."

?As the European country most profoundly affected by the refugee crisis, Germany should be the most hopeful among NATO allies to resolve the Syrian issue as soon as possible.

At the same time, Germany and France are the two-wheel drive of the European Union and important allies of the United States and the United Kingdom. Logically speaking, they should take action. Therefore, Germany's standstill at this moment has multiple meanings: Germany believes that the best way to solve the Syrian problem is through politics.

Negotiation rather than force, which also shows Germany's recent changes in foreign and security policies.

In 2016, Merkel participated in the "International Conference on Supporting the Future of Syria and the Region" co-organized by the EU and the United Nations. Since the establishment of the German Federal Republic, close cooperation and mutual trust with European allies and the United States have been Germany's foreign policy.

two pillars.

After Trump came to power, he made strange and unpredictable moves, which made Germans who always pursue political stability very uncomfortable.

For example, there was no formal strategy or plan behind this air strike. Germany chose to sit on the sidelines for the time being.

When Merkel expressed her stance, she did not actually mean what she said.

When she stated that she would not participate in the military strike, she added, "This is not the final decision," leaving Germany with the possibility of joining the action later.

Henning Riecke, head of the U.S. and transatlantic relations program at the German Council on Foreign Relations, told The World that leaving such a space does not mean that Germany is subjectively willing to participate in military strikes, but is to prevent the situation in Syria from changing dramatically.

, and Trump’s uncertainty is the most likely trigger for change.

Map of the European Refugee Crisis Situation in 2015 Source: Wikipedia Under Trump’s “America First” value orientation, all policies are shot with the United States as the center, and the possibility of “friendly damage” is very high.

For example, the Sino-U.S. trade war has brought Germany along. Although through the efforts of the European Union, it has been temporarily excluded from the scope of steel and aluminum taxes, the U.S.'s immunity from the EU is only until May 1. After that, Germany and other EU countries still

Keep fighting for it.

Trump can use trade to coerce Germany into military cooperation.

Conversely, the United States' military asylum for NATO countries, including Germany, can also be used to demand economic concessions.

After he came to power, he has repeatedly accused Germany, openly and covertly, of failing to meet its commitment to increase defense spending to 2% of GDP, which has made Germany very uncomfortable.

Germany has also gradually realized that its military weakness is a shortcoming in the barrel of comprehensive national strength.

Relying on the protection of the United States means you can only be controlled by others. However, Trump does not believe in international multilateral cooperation. He has withdrawn from international organizations and multilateral agreements one after another since he came to power. He is also suspicious of NATO and often does not seek the opinions of allies before taking action.

, which has shaken the transatlantic relationship that has been solid for many years.

?Merkel once said a sentence in May last year, which will be quoted by the German media after every unexpected action of Trump. Its popularity is second only to the sentence "We can do it" in response to the refugee flow.

: “The days when we were completely dependent on others, to a certain extent, are gone forever.”

"Others" refers to the United States.

She was in a noisy beer tent in Munich, and the air was filled with the smell of alcohol. Compared with the speech under the Brandenburg Gate or the speech in the parliament hall, it seemed an understatement, more like a conversation between friends, but the meaning behind it

But it is epoch-making.

This was the German Chancellor's announcement that the strong partnership with the United States was coming to an end.

In the past half century, the United States has been the patron of Germany's homeland security and political ideas.

Free Syrian Army fighters Source: Scott Bobb Militarily, the German army’s equipment is outdated, the usability rate of important armaments such as tanks and fighter planes is half of the total, and the last submarine has completely “struck”.

During the Cold War, Germany had more than 2,000 main battle tanks, but now there are only about 250 tanks left, of which only 105 can be put into war immediately.

As the country of origin of the Leopard 2 tank, Germany is now criticized for being unable to meet the quantitative standards stipulated by NATO.

But so far, Germany has no plans to increase military investment. In the latest cabinet formation agreement, defense spending is not a focus.

And this, like the rejection of this military strike, has certain historical reasons.

Christian Hanelt, a security expert at the Bertelsmann Foundation, told the world that Germany has always been cautious in its overseas military operations.

After World War II, Germany's armament development was restricted and it was not allowed to fight alone overseas.

At the same time, Germany's dispatch of troops outside its borders requires a parliamentary decision, unlike the United States, Britain and France, which require direct approval from the top leaders.

Among the German people, the anti-war voice has always been relatively strong, and the same is true in the parliament. Whether it is to increase military spending or to go overseas, it is not easy to pass.