The difference between "reorganization" and "being reorganized" also explains the direction of debt disposal of Brilliance. The existence of brilliance is still a high probability event, and the suspense is who will solve the problem.

Text/"Autobot" Huang

165438+1On October 20th, Shenyang Intermediate People's Court ruled to accept the creditor reorganization application of Brilliance Automobile Group Holding Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as Brilliance Automobile or Brilliance), which marked that this automobile enterprise officially entered the bankruptcy reorganization procedure.

Brilliance Auto was "declared bankrupt and reorganized". Although 10, a three-year private debt due on October 23, defaulted, public opinion carefully observed Brilliance's financial situation under a magnifying glass, but bankruptcy was still shocking. There is a simple reason. Brilliance is a state-owned enterprise, and BMW Brilliance is the shoulder of Shenyang tax revenue. According to the truth, it should be the "guarantee object", and the provincial SASAC should be able to guarantee it.

Brilliance debt default broke out in concentration.

Whether it can be guaranteed or not is probably a matter of will.

The principal and interest of this due debt are 1 100 million yuan and1400 million yuan, which is not much compared with the assets of Brilliance of 200 billion yuan and 50 billion yuan, but it is only the tip of the iceberg.

In fact, since the beginning of this year, Brilliance has defaulted on its debts and payables for many times, and has been included in the executor for many times. It reached 15 times in September alone.

Since July, the capital market has finally responded, and Brilliance bonds have plummeted, especially in August 12. This means that Brilliance can no longer raise funds by issuing bonds.

In August 13, Brilliance Hong Kong stocks plunged. Dagong and Oriental Jincheng downgraded Brilliance to A+ and AA-, with a negative outlook.

Brilliance capital chain is on the verge of fracture. Neither Jiangsu Trust nor Pacific Asset Management Company has received quarterly interest and due principal and interest paid by Brilliance.

Private placements are like this, and public offerings are also overcast. At present, it is not known how many shares of Brilliance's public debt have not exploded. However, after Brilliance went bankrupt, there was nothing the fund manager could do. Whether the floating loss will become a real loss depends on whether Brilliance can complete the restructuring through bond replacement. If not, we will wait in line for the distribution of creditor's rights, which is the worst result. Public offering and private placement rank lower in the priority order of creditor's rights.

Independent business drag

How is Brilliance's vehicle business? In the first half of this year, the revenue was 84.63 billion yuan and the net profit was 6.3/kloc-0.20 billion yuan. However, the profit attributable to the mother was-65.438+096 billion yuan, the debt was 65.438+0328 billion yuan, and the asset-liability ratio was 68.7%.

In the first half of the year, Brilliance China sold 365,438+086 vehicles and Jinbei sold 76,665,438+0 vehicles. BMW Brilliance sold 262,000 vehicles, 24 times the sum of the first two. Among them, the sales volume of China H3 was zero from June to August this year, and it was not until September that it sold 1 vehicle.

It is worth mentioning that Brilliance sold the 39. 1% equity of Jinbei to Renault at the price of1yuan in 20 17, and established a joint venture with the latter.

In 20 19, the sales volume contributed by three independent brands of Brilliance Auto was less than 30%, and BMW accounted for more than 70%. In terms of profit, Brilliance's annual profit was 6.3 billion yuan, and BMW contributed 7.6 billion yuan. Without the latter, Brilliance will lose 654.38+03 billion yuan.

In fact, from 20 1 1-20 18, BMW Brilliance contributed as much as 120% to the group's annual net profit. Brilliance's independent business lost money 10 years, with no improvement.

Brilliance can't climb up by itself on its own independent business like this. Compared with the profit and loss in financial statements, the exhaustion of cash flow is more fatal to Brilliance. The financial report shows that the cash flow of Brilliance Q2 in the fiscal quarter plummeted from 23.9 billion yuan to 5 billion yuan. Most public opinion does not recognize this figure, and the cash flow of Brilliance may now be only several hundred million yuan, or even less than 654.38+0 billion yuan. For an OEM with 350 suppliers, if there is only this cash in the account, it is equivalent to personal liquidity of only 100 yuan, and it may not even be able to afford a food stall.

This is why Brilliance's monetary fund is at a high level, but it can't pay the interest of 65.438+0.44 billion yuan.

Shareholders are ambiguous.

When Brilliance bonds fell in a mess in August, Brilliance employees did not panic. "The government won't look." The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of Liaoning Province and the Social Security Fund Council of Liaoning Province hold 80% and 20% shares of Brilliance respectively. Isn't it a solution that SASAC ordered the bank to lend brilliance?

Now is not 10 years ago, the central bank asked commercial banks to obey the risk control requirements of general banks and cut off from local governments.

Aren't state-owned shareholders going to save Brilliance? Not exactly.

In August this year, Liaoning Banking Regulatory Commission organized and led China Everbright Bank to set up Brilliance Debt Committee. It should be pointed out that this debt Committee is only responsible for bank claims. Public offerings and private placements (including trusts) are eagerly watching.

The Debt Committee has been paying close attention to Brilliance Finance and strictly controlling the entry and exit of capital. In May and July this year, Brilliance sold 600 million shares to Liaoning Jiaojiantou Group, realizing HK$ 3.28 billion. The latter currently holds 0/2% equity of Brilliance/KLOC.

The question is, how deep is Brilliance's problem?

In 20 18, the National Development and Reform Commission's reply to Brilliance Company's bonds mentioned that 10 billion yuan was raised, of which 6 billion yuan was used for production line renovation, new energy manufacturing and smart factories, and 4 billion yuan was used to supplement working capital. As a result, brilliance new energy qualification was cancelled on 20 18 1 1

Brilliance saw the trend of its own crisis earlier and more clearly than the outside world.

In September, Brilliance first "sank" the equity of Brilliance China, and established Liaoning Xinrui Automobile Industry Development Co., Ltd. between Brilliance Group and Brilliance with a registered capital of100000 yuan, which shows that it is a shell company.

Now that the bond has defaulted, investors could have frozen the equity of Brilliance China, but now they can only freeze the cutting-edge empty shell.

Then, on June 18+07, Brilliance changed the name and registered place of Shenhua Holdings, another listed company, from Shanghai to Shenyang. For the lawsuit against Brilliance for collection of creditor's rights, creditors can't choose Shanghai now, but go to Liaoning to sue. Obviously, uncontrollable factors have increased, and everyone understands the reasons.

These actions of Brilliance undoubtedly show the disposal attitude after breach of contract. As of June 1 1, Brilliance 13 bonds have expired or matured, totaling 162 billion yuan. In 20021and 2022, there are still 157 billion yuan bonds due or under repurchase pressure. These do not involve bank claims. Brilliance's debt is 654.38+0328 billion, and its short-term debt is not much. As long as banks are no longer forced to set up a unified debt Committee (not limited to banks) to balance the payment of suppliers, employees' wages and social security, there is still hope to get rid of the immediate predicament.

Liaoning SASAC has not formally come forward to integrate, so it seems that the bullet will have to fly for a while.

The fundamental problem is simple.

The slightly longer-term question is what to do next? Before 2022, 3.6 billion euros of funds for BMW to acquire a 25% stake in the joint venture company will arrive. It is reported that China asked BMW to pay in advance (unconfirmed). Actually, you don't have to guess. All major creditors are waiting for the money to offset their debts.

The deep-seated reasons of Brilliance's debt crisis are simple and clear.

This enterprise is inherently deficient, and the financial mess after Yang Rong left has not been completely solved. Qi Yumin was ordered at the critical moment to pull Brilliance back from the brink of crisis and continue to live. His independent business once improved, but it did not fundamentally solve the situation of insufficient independent ability.

Brilliance's independent business once counted on BMW to transport technology, and once imagined that BMW technology transfer could enhance the brand's gold content. However, the product strength has never been greatly improved, and it has been declining in the increasingly fierce competition.

Brilliance has taken the old path of many weak brands. However, the identity of state-owned enterprises and the signboard of BMW partners make its defeat even more striking.

As pointed out in the BMW statement, the default of Brilliance debt will not affect the operation of BMW Brilliance. Because the latter is financially healthy and has a financial firewall-the shares of BMW Brilliance Joint Venture Company are held by Shenyang Jinbei, which has nothing to do with Brilliance Auto, although both are subsidiaries of Brilliance Group.

Some people say that BMW even wants Brilliance to go bankrupt and turn the joint venture into a sole proprietorship. This is a misunderstanding of joint venture equity and debt. In fact, if nothing else, as long as the National Development and Reform Commission does not approve it, the shareholding ratio cannot be changed. This is not replaceable by capital operation.

Of course, after the completion of BMW's fixed increase, it will be even more unfavorable to Brilliance's prospects. However, the Shenyang Intermediate People's Court ruled that Brilliance has bankruptcy conditions, but at the same time it has the value and possibility of saving and the necessity and feasibility of "reorganization".

The difference between "reorganization" and "being reorganized" also explains the direction of debt disposal of Brilliance. The existence of brilliance is still a high probability event, and the suspense is who will solve the problem. (Text/"Autobot" Huang, part of the picture source network) Copyright statement This article is the exclusive original manuscript of Autobot, and the copyright belongs to Autobot.

This article comes from car home, the author of the car manufacturer, and does not represent car home's position.