221 will be a year of sharp increase in asset prices.

Looking back at 22, doubling the price of steel will have little effect on you, and doubling the price of coal will have little effect on you, but if the price of oil doubles, do you think it is a little expensive to drive and refuel? If a friend bought gold and earned a lot of money, what would it feel like if you didn't buy it?

in p>221, the pressure of inflation is not great, but the pressure of rising asset prices is great.

First of all, from the perspective of raw materials, the prices of industrial basic materials, including oil, nonferrous metals, steel and coal, have risen sharply.

although asset prices have soared, the inflation price level has not rebounded strongly, which is the biggest problem.

The inflation level is not high, reflecting that the upstream demand is not active enough, and the rising asset price will reduce the profits in the middle reaches of the industrial chain. This is not a good sign.

the us dollar is the basis of global financial market pricing. since August 22, the yield of 1-year us bonds has started to rise moderately from a minimum of about .5%. Since January this year, the yield of US bonds has accelerated, rising rapidly from .9% to 1.6%. Although the target interest rate range of the federal funds is still maintained at -.25%, the market's concerns about policy tightening can already cause huge fluctuations in the market.

Behind the soaring yield of US bonds is the rising inflation caused by the massive stimulus policy and the recovery of the economy from the virus attack in 22. Since April 22, the core PCE in the United States has bottomed out and increased from .9% to 1.5%. In addition, the number of non-agricultural employees reached 379, in February, far exceeding the expectation of 19.8, and it was the first time in the past three months that it exceeded the expected value. Moreover, Biden's 1.9 trillion stimulus plan has also raised inflation expectations.

However, with the inflation level approaching the target position of the Federal Reserve, the expectation of raising interest rates will become an important factor to disturb the market. Since February, the US dollar index has risen significantly. Although it is impossible to judge the sustainability of the trend, from a technical point of view, the unilateral downward trend has ended with a high probability. As the US dollar index shows signs of turning around, the unilateral trend of the RMB may change.

Summary: On the one hand, as the US dollar index shows signs of turning around, the unilateral trend of RMB may change. On the other hand, the domestic economic recovery has not exceeded the expected marginal increase. The economic recovery is general, and it is difficult for funds to flow into the real economy, which is likely to flow into various assets to push up prices. For individuals, you must choose the right assets, otherwise, the probability of shrinking the money bag is high.