Look at this.
The margin of stock index futures has increased, the handling fees have increased, and the tragic self-inflicted damage of stock index futures is shocking. What should we do? Now the management is closing the capital allocation port again, and the domestic stock index futures have existed in name only! Retail investors have been blocked from the GSI futures!
An announcement was issued on September 2, announcing four more measures to curb excessive speculation in stock index futures, including a single product and a single-day opening trading volume of more than 10 lots. "Abnormal trading behavior; the margin standard for non-hedging position transactions is increased to 40%, and the margin standard for hedging position transactions is increased to 20%; the intra-day trading fee is increased to 23/10,000 of the closing transaction amount ; Strengthen the management of long-term untraded accounts in the stock index futures market.
To what extent is this shock?
Although it has been taken repeatedly before, this news was released on the eve of the Victory Day holiday, which still shocked the entire market. Market participants have stated that "stock index futures have no trading value" and "the function of stock index futures has basically disappeared." Many articles reviewed the topic of "commemorating stock index futures". Professionals generally believe that it is the recent bombardment of public opinion on the futures index by experts, scholars, and stock investors that has forced the regulators to engage in "self-harm" behavior. So how serious are these measures and how shocking are they? Fund Manager will give a brief analysis here:
First of all, there is a "10-lot" limit. Regardless of whether you open long or short orders every day, it will be considered a violation after opening 10 lots. When the first move was made on August 25, the number was "600 hands"; when the second move was made on August 28, the number was "100 hands." This shows that the intensity is unimaginable. It is common for a stock investor to buy 10 lots of stocks every day, let alone the futures market. This move basically bids farewell to programmatic and high-frequency trading in stock index futures. For larger institutions, in addition to unlimited hedging, the 10-lot limit makes trading on index futures basically meaningless.
Secondly, 40% margin is extremely rare in the history of world futures. Calculated based on the closing price of CSI 300 stock index futures of 2965 points and the 40% margin, the first-hand margin is around 360,000. The margin in previous normal periods was 10%. The money that could be used to make 4 lots can now only be made 1 lot, and the cost of capital has increased fourfold. Those investors who have just raised enough to open an account of 500,000 can only enter the market for one lot. In addition, the hedging margin has been raised to 20%, and the cost of institutional hedging has also been greatly increased.
Third, there is a handling fee of 23/10,000 for closing the current position on the same day. "The same day today" is commonly known as "T+0". A rough estimate is that the one-time handling fee for "T+0" is more than 2,000 yuan! Even investors who only do one hand may be daunted by such terrifying handling fees. The handling fee before August 26 is 0.23/10,000, and the handling fee after August 26 is 1.15/10,000. You can understand the intensity of 23/10,000. One point of the CSI 300 stock index futures is 300 yuan. Investors must get 8 index points right before "T+0" can make money. As a result, a sharp decline in intraday trading is almost inevitable.
Fourth, if someone wants to avoid it by opening more accounts, then "strengthening the management of long-term untraded accounts in the stock index futures market" will also plug this loophole.
To sum up, readers must have noticed that even if you are only a qualified investor, you already feel that futures are "impossible to do". After the futures market opens next Monday, you should no longer have to worry about "curtailing speculation." In this sense, China’s stock index futures, which ranked first in the world this year, are actually “obsolete”. The most likely outcome is that futures prices will gradually become a small variety with only sporadic transactions.
From a rational point of view, no exchange in the world can make such an incredible act of "self-harm". So, what kind of pressure forced the world's number one breed to reach such a situation?
The fierce "public opinion war" against the futures index
The sharp decline since June 15 has become a turning point in the fate of the futures index. After the futures index was listed on April 16, 2010, after five years of development, the CSI 300 stock index futures has basically become a large variety with a daily trading volume of 1-2 million lots and a daily holding volume of about 200,000 lots, which is used to measure the maturity of the futures index. The transaction-to-position ratio is also around 5:1, which has gradually moved closer to a mature market. However, the occurrence of the stock market crash triggered overwhelming criticism of futures, among which the voices of non-industry experts such as Liu Shuwei, Ye Tan, and Yi Xianrong were the loudest. Of course, there are also counterattacks from scholars such as Ba Shusong. Among them, Ba Shusong's "Stock Index Futures Should Be Blamed or Vigorously Developed" is the representative one, which demonstrates that "the stock index futures market has always maintained its own long-short balance and has not exerted any influence on the stock market. According to statistics, from June 15 to July 31, 2015, the average daily net selling pressure absorbed by stock index futures was approximately 258,000 lots, with a contract face value of nearly 360 billion yuan, which is equivalent to "This has alleviated the 360 ??billion yuan selling pressure in the spot market." However, after the release of this study, it still attracted fierce attacks from netizens.
That is to say, starting from the end of June, due to the closure of securities lending channels and the suspension of a large number of individual stocks, the "discount" of the futures index relative to the spot increased significantly, and the market accusations that the futures index led to the decline gradually increased.