In September 2008, the Federal Reserve began to expand its balance sheet. The Federal Reserve adopts quantitative easing policy for two purposes. First, buy securities in the market in order to "start" the banking system; The second is to undertake some financial intermediary functions that the private sector is unwilling to undertake. From March 20065438 to March 2006, the Bank of Japan implemented the quantitative easing policy, and its balance sheet accounted for about 22% of the country's GDP from about 13%. Due to the fundamental differences between the financial systems of the United States and Japan, the size of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet is much smaller than that of the Bank of Japan-before the crisis, the ratio of the former's balance sheet to US GDP was only about 6%. By June+10 in 5438, the balance sheet of the Federal Reserve had expanded to more than 8% of the GDP of the United States, an increase of 35% over that before the crisis.

The key to correctly evaluate the impact of the Fed's "printing money" on inflation lies in observing the changes of the broad money aggregate and the "money multiplier".

The reason for the serious deviation between the base money and broad money supply in the United States lies in the sharp decline of the "money multiplier". The collapse of the money multiplier reflects that the ability and willingness of American banks and other financial institutions to undertake the function of capital intermediary have shrunk dramatically since the crisis. At present, the currency multiplier in the United States has fallen much more seriously than that in Japan: in Japan, the currency multiplier has dropped from about 10 times of the balance sheet to about 6.5 times of the lowest point, with a drop of 35%; In the United States, in the past two months alone, the currency multiplier has dropped from more than 9 to around 7, a drop of 22%.

Since 2008, the world's four major central banks have injected 6 trillion dollars of liquidity, but it seems certain that they will continue to open the printing press for many years, and the relationship between the once highly independent central banks and the government may change. After experiencing another wave of financial and banking pressure in the euro zone and the stagnation of employment in the United States, rich economies are getting deeper and deeper in the debt quagmire, and everyone turns their eyes back to the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, the Bank of England and the Bank of Japan, waiting for them to turn the tide again.

To be sure, quantitative easing measures will once again return to the discussion scope of the upcoming four central bank policy meetings. In the past four years, the four central banks have increased the money supply by expanding their balance sheets and buying government bonds mainly from domestic banks. So far, the creation of electronic money-whether it is directly created by the United States and Britain through the purchase of government bonds or by the European Central Bank through cheap long-term loans-can not even make up for the gap left by commercial banks in reorganizing their own assets and reducing the scale of loans. It's almost like investors think that quantitative easing will come anyway. Gary Baker of Bank of America Merrill Lynch said.

According to the latest monthly survey of 260 fund managers by Bank of America Merrill Lynch, three-quarters of the respondents expect the European Central Bank to conduct liquidity operations again before 10. Almost half of the respondents expect the Fed to inject liquidity again in the same period.

20 12 Japan

The Bank of Japan once again increased the scale of asset purchases in 20 12 years. Moderate members of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) said on Monday that the Bank of England should not only buy more government bonds, but also lend to small businesses.

In 2006 54 38+0-2006, in response to the continuous decline of domestic economy and investment recession, the Bank of Japan injected liquidity into the banking system by buying a large number of public bonds and long-term bonds at extremely low interest rates, so that the interest rate remained close to zero. By injecting liquidity into the banking system, banks are forced to lend at lower loan interest rates, thus increasing the money supply of the entire economic system and promoting investment and the recovery of the national economy. This is completely different from the interest rate leverage regulation of the central bank under normal circumstances.

Many scholars believe that it was the Bank of Japan's decisive quantitative easing policy (a measure to actively increase the money supply) that enabled Japan's economy to recover in 2006. Since then, "quantitative easing" has attracted much attention as a means for the central bank to contain the economic crisis and stimulate economic recovery.

20 13 USA

Every move of the Federal Reserve always affects the fluctuation of gold price. 20 13 In September, the Federal Reserve announced that it would keep the current loose monetary policy unchanged and not cut the scale of the third round of quantitative easing monetary policy (QE3) for the time being. This unexpected resolution caused the price of gold to rise sharply. However, Brad, a Fed official, later said that QE may be reduced at 5438+00 in June, which led to a sharp drop in gold and silver prices at the same time.

The Federal Reserve said the day before yesterday that it needs to further observe the performance of the US economy, and it will maintain the existing monetary policy stimulus until the US job market improves substantially. The Federal Reserve issued a statement pointing out that since July, the US economy has sustained moderate growth and the job market has shown signs of improvement. However, the unemployment rate remains high, household consumption and investment in fixed assets of enterprises have rebounded, the recovery momentum of the property market has been consolidated, and long-term inflation expectations have remained stable. However, the mortgage interest rate in the United States has continued to rise recently, and the US fiscal policy has dragged down economic growth.

Previously, it was widely expected that the Fed would begin to reduce the size of QE at this meeting. The unexpected decision of the Federal Reserve made the price of gold rise sharply. After the announcement of this decision, the gold price in new york rose by 4.7% at the close of September 19, the highest closing price since September 9.

But then, Fed official Brad said yesterday that the decision not to reduce QE was "unwilling to make". Depending on economic data, the Fed may reduce QE in June+10, 5438. On this news, new york gold futures price closed down 2.7% to $ .332.50 per ounce/kloc-0 and silver fell 6.4% to $ .80 per ounce. Gold rose 1.8% in this week's trading. The United States continues to implement the quantitative easing policy by expanding the base money supply, which is essentially collecting seigniorage from the world. This policy not only supports the policy of expanding fiscal expenditure and maintaining deficit in the United States, but also leads to the continuous depreciation of the US dollar, the sharp rise in global primary product prices and the sharp decline in the market value of US foreign debt.

1, quantitative easing raised a lot of seigniorage for the United States. In view of the status of the US dollar as a national currency, the Federal Reserve implemented quantitative easing by issuing the base currency, which is essentially collecting seigniorage from the world.

2。 Quantitative easing has provided important support for the United States to expand its fiscal expenditure. Except that the third round of quantitative easing is to buy mortgage-backed securities, the other three rounds of quantitative easing policies implemented by the Federal Reserve are to buy government bonds to support the US government in maintaining its fiscal deficit policy and expanding its fiscal expenditure.

3。 Quantitative easing led to a sharp depreciation of the US dollar and a rise in global prices, which led to a sharp decline in US foreign debt. The second major impact of the Federal Reserve's quantitative easing policy is the sharp depreciation of the US dollar and the sharp rise in global commodity prices.

This policy not only increased the issuance of base currency, levied seigniorage, supported the government to expand fiscal expenditure, but also played an important role in promoting the economic recovery of the United States.

The quantitative easing policy of the Federal Reserve, while increasing the issuance of base money, collecting seigniorage and supporting the government to expand fiscal expenditure, has played an important role in promoting the economic recovery of the United States. Since the first round of quantitative easing is a reasonable measure to deal with the financial crisis, and the third and fourth rounds of quantitative easing have just begun, we will focus on analyzing the comprehensive impact of the second round of quantitative easing on US economic growth.

The liquidity injected by quantitative easing policy has also significantly increased the growth rate of bank credit and money supply. The depreciation of the US dollar caused by the quantitative easing policy of the Federal Reserve not only has a direct impact on the global economy through the increase in the price of primary products in the international market and the decline in the value of US debt, but also has an impact on the economic growth of other countries by affecting the import and export of the United States.