The discount of closed-end funds is a common phenomenon in the international market. It is generally believed that the discount is mainly affected by two factors: first, there will be impact costs in the process of realizing the fund assets; second, the unit net value is only a reference for trading and does not play a decisive role, and the fund will also be affected by the relationship between market supply and demand.
The continued downturn in the closed-end fund market has worried many people in the industry. Following June 4 1 65438+1October 27, the secondary market price of funds in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets fell below the face value of unit funds1yuan, and all listed closed-end funds fell below the integer mark of 0.90 yuan again.
At present, domestic closed-end funds mainly invest in stocks, so the decline of stock market is part of the reason for the decline of fund prices; The improvement of the discount rate of funds further leads to the poor performance of the secondary market of funds.
The discount method has disappeared.
According to the statistics of Tang, the financial product development group of CITIC Securities, in the nine trading weeks since September 13, the net value of 54 closed-end funds decreased by 4.238 billion yuan, or 5.32%; In the same period, their market value decreased by 65.438+69 billion yuan, a decrease of 9.43%. The weighted average discount rate of the Fund rose sharply from 4.64% on September 13 to 1 10.38% on October 22.
In the secondary market, the recent fund price trend is also significantly weaker than the overall market. Insiders pointed out that the Shanghai Stock Exchange Fund Index completely filled the gap in the "6.24" market on September 1 1, while the Shanghai Composite Index did not completely fill the gap in the "6.24" market until June 65438+1October 9. Recently, the fund index has dropped significantly faster than the broader market again: as of June 5438+065438+1October 55438+05, the Shanghai Composite Index is still around 1450, and there is still about 10% space from the low point at the beginning of the year 1339. However, the Shanghai Stock Exchange Fund Index has fallen to 1020.86, which is close to the low point at the beginning of the year 10 16.79. Shenzhen Component Index has even fallen below the low of 96 1.64 at the beginning of the year.
Fund discount rate was once regarded as an important reference index for observing the market by market participants familiar with the fund industry. When the discount rate of the 3 billion market reaches about 10%, the market tends to rebound. At the end of June 1 and June 2 1, the discount rate of large funds exceeded 10%, followed by the rebound at the beginning of the year and the "June 24" blowout. However, when a similar situation occurred again in June 65438+1October 65438+1October 0 1, the market just ushered in a sideways position for ten days, and then turned around and continued to fall without hesitation. The discount rate of the fund also continues to increase.
"Some essential changes have taken place in the current market, which has led to the invalidation of some existing laws." Mr Gou Dajin, head of macro research department of Qinghai Securities, pointed out. He believes that the Measures for the Administration of the Acquisition of Listed Companies and the QFII Interim Measures to be implemented soon will profoundly change the structure of market participants and bring fundamental changes to the market.
Romance of discount rate
The discount of closed-end funds is a common phenomenon in the international market. It is generally believed that the discount is mainly affected by two factors: first, the fund assets will have impact costs in the process of realization, for example, the original stock assets of 654.38 billion yuan will definitely be less than 654.38 billion yuan after the sale process is completed; Second, because the unit net value is only a reference for trading, it does not play a decisive role, so the fund will also be affected by the relationship between market supply and demand.
In China, the relative discount rate of small-cap funds is relatively low, while the relative discount rate of large-cap funds is relatively high. The usual explanation is that small-cap funds are "small in scale and easy to turn around", and the impact cost when selling assets is low; In addition, similar to small-cap stocks, small-cap stocks are more likely to be sought after by funds. Large-cap funds are just the opposite.
However, in the history of new fund transactions in China, funds are not always discounted. For a long time before the end of 1999, closed-end funds have been trading at an overall premium. Industry veterans said that this situation occurred because the market did not fully understand the connotation of the fund and there was irrational speculation on the fund. 1999 10, insurance companies considered as rational institutional investors were allowed to enter the fund market, which completely changed the structure of fund holders and ended the history that the fund price greatly exceeded the fund net value.
Since the beginning of 2000, the discount rate of closed-end funds has been rising all the way, with the highest exceeding 20%; From the end of 2000, the discount rate began to shrink, reaching about 0% in the middle of 200 1 and 10, and then fluctuated between 2% and 8% several times. Recently, it broke through 10%, setting a new high discount rate in a year and a half.
Shock city and market linkage
After the structure of fund holders changes, the relationship between the secondary market and the discount rates of funds in different markets is investigated, and it can be found that the relationship between them is extremely close and synchronous in the market of shock consolidation.
The calculation shows that from the end of 1999 to August 25, 2000, the stock market continued to rise after a round of correction, and the correlation between the weighted average discount rate of funds and the Shanghai Composite Index was -0.9296, which was highly negative.
From September 1 2000 to June 29, 2006, the stock index fluctuated upward, and the correlation between the weighted average discount rate of funds and the Shanghai Composite Index was 0.7307, which was significantly positive.
From 5,438+0 on July 6th, 2006 to 5,438+0, 10, 19 on July 6th, 2006, the market fell unilaterally for more than three months, and the correlation between the weighted average discount rate of funds and the Shanghai Composite Index became -0.4764, which was not obvious.
From 20011012 6 to last weekend (2002112122), the correlation between the weighted average discount rate of funds and the Shanghai stock exchange index was as high as 0.8/kloc-0.
The institutional holders of funds believe that the discount rate of funds will generally remain in the range of 2% to 15%, and it is impossible to run in the same direction for a long time like the stock market. In the above two stages, the market is characterized by the consolidation of stock indexes within a certain range. When the market rises, it is generally active, and the impact cost of fund assets is low, so the discount rate is correspondingly reduced. When the market falls, the trading volume usually shrinks, and the impact cost of fund assets is higher, so the discount rate increases. The level is far from reaching the upper and lower limits, so the discount rate of funds in the shock city can obviously fluctuate with the stock index.
In the unilateral upward or downward market, the market segmentation theory gives a certain explanation. Sun Ju of Southwest Securities Fund Evaluation Group pointed out from the perspective of capital that in the first stage of the previous bull market, the stock price generally rose. Because fund assets can't fully hold stocks, the net growth rate is lower than most stocks, so some funds switch from fund market to stock market. In the third stage of the decline, it is also because the fund's assets have not all bought stocks, and the net value decline is obviously lower than the overall market. Therefore, some funds that still have hope for the market outlook have moved to the "safe haven" of the fund to temporarily avoid risks.
An insurance company in Shanghai believes that the adjustment of the weighted average discount rate of funds is often too radical, similar to the adjustment of stock indexes. The first stage of decline is to continue the downward trend of the previous discount rate; Similarly, the rise in the third stage also continued the upward trend of the previous discount rate.
Bearer bearish
At present, the holders of many funds, especially large-cap funds, are mainly institutions. Hu, the research and evaluation center of Galaxy Securities Fund, believes that a group of long-term fund investors have gradually withdrawn from the closed-end fund market, which has led to an increase in the discount rate of funds. The reason why they are not optimistic is that the fund's policies are obviously inclined to open-end funds.
Insurance companies say that short-term bearish or uncertain trends will take a more conservative approach. When 1500 broke, a big insurance company suggested that "Si Qian" could not stay; When it falls below 1400, another insurance company thinks that the short-term 1300 will be broken. This bearish background will inevitably lead to the holders selling funds.
For the market outlook, market participants believe that since the fund discount rate has reached 20%, it should not be unexpected to approach or reach 15% this time; This situation is likely to be accompanied by further decline in the market. (