Shangqiu Shangqiu personal net grain 17 0.96 yuan/kg Xinxiang fengqiu county Zhao Shujun net grain 16 1.005 yuan/kg.
Xinzheng city, Zhengzhou, VVVV 15 1.02 yuan/kg of corn wool sold in Ningling County, Shangqiu 16 0.96 yuan/kg.
Hujingliang in Fugou County, Zhoukou 18 1.04 yuan/kg. Xinxiang fengqiu county Wang Yunfang net grain 16 1.005 yuan/kg.
Xinxiang Huojia County Huowu Grain Reserve Xiaozhuang Net Grain 15.5 0.98 Yuan/kg Puyang Taiqian County Huatai Grain and Oil Net Grain 16 0.95 Yuan/kg.
Zhoukou Dancheng Caixin Sugar Co., Ltd. net grain 14 1.05 yuan/kg Zhoukou Dancheng Jindan lactic acid net grain 16 1.035 yuan/kg.
Net grain of Dou Zhonglei in Huaiyang County, Zhoukou 18 0.99 yuan/kg Net grain of Nanyang Tianguan Formation 14 0.96 yuan/kg.
Net grain of Cao Kuojun's grain purchasing department in qingfeng county, Puyang 14 1.00 yuan/kg Pingdingshan corn wagon grain 15 0.945 yuan/kg.
Net grain of Cheng Xinzhi purchasing station in Shangcai County, Zhumadian 15 0.95 yuan/kg. Jade wool grain sold in Ningling County, Shangqiu 16 0.96 yuan/kg.
Grain gross 15 0.965 yuan/kg in Xiaozhuang grain retail department of Huojia County, Xinxiang; The total grain output of Zhang Xuejun in Huaiyang County of Zhoukou is16 0.94 yuan/kg.
The total grain output of Suiyang District of Shangqiu City in Zhou Dynasty 16 0.95 yuan/kg Zhumadian, Suiping County, Henan Province, and the net grain output of China Grain Storage Agricultural and Rural Service Agency 15 0.95 yuan/kg.
Fugou county in Zhoukou sells coarse grains of corn 15 0.93 yuan/kg, and grain merchants in Luyi county in Zhoukou sell coarse grains 15 0.935 yuan/kg.
Xuchang Xuchang personal net grain 15 0.96 yuan/kg Zhumadian Xiping County sells corn but does not deliver it to the car 0.955 gross grain 15 0.955 yuan/kg.
Net Grain of Dou Mingliang Grain Collection Point in Puyang County, Puyang City 15 0.98 Yuan/kg Zhoukou Net Grain of Henan Grain Storage, Agriculture, Countryside and Farmers Service Agency 16 0.95 Yuan/kg.
Individual gross grain in runan county, Zhumadian 15 0.935 yuan/kg net corn grain in Zhengyang County, Zhumadian 15 0.96 yuan/kg.
Net corn grain 15 0.96 yuan/kg in Zhengyang County, Zhumadian. The net grain of high-quality corn sold in Xiping County, Zhumadian 15 0.96 yuan/kg.
Zhumadian Zhumadian sells net corn grain 15 0.96 yuan/kg Zhoukou Taikang county Sitong personal total grain 17 0.94 yuan/kg.
Net grain of Yuqing Grain Store in Xiayi County, Shangqiu 16 0.96 yuan/kg. The net corn grain 15 0.96 yuan/kg in Zhengyang County, Zhumadian.
Personal net grain in Xihua County, Zhoukou 14 0.94 yuan/kg Nanyang tanghe county 14 0.96 yuan/kg.
Net grain of Nanyang Tianguan Group 14 0.98 yuan/kg. The total grain output of individuals in Suiyang District of Shangqiu City 14 0.96 yuan/kg.
Nanyang tanghe county personal net grain 15 0.95 yuan/kg Nanyang tanghe county personal net grain 14 0.94 yuan/kg.
Net grain of Henan Grain Management Department in Yanling County, Xuchang 16 0.98 yuan/kg.
Net Grain of wen county East Corn Purchase Point in Jiaozuo 15 0.96 Yuan/kg. Net grain of Yuqing Grain Store in Xiayi County, Shangqiu 17 0.96 yuan/kg.
Gross corn grain 16 0.945 yuan/kg net corn grain 15 0.98 yuan/kg in Lvtan, Fugou County, Zhoukou City.
Xinxiang county's personal clean grain 15 1.0 1 yuan/kg Zhoukou Luyi county's Cao purchase price 16 0.94 yuan/kg.
Cao's purchase price in Zhoukou Luyi County is 17 0.945 yuan/kg of coarse grains and 14 0.98 yuan/kg of net grain of Nanyang Tianguan Group.
Xiping County in Zhumadian welcomes net grain from grain merchants in Henan Province 15 0.96 yuan/kg, and gross grain from Caozhangtao Grain Purchase and Sale Station in Luyi County in Zhoukou 16 0.95 yuan/kg.
Net grain of Tianguan Group in Nanyang City 14 0.98 yuan/kg, coarse grain of suiping county in Zhumadian, Laban Xiao 15 0.96 yuan/kg.
Gross grain 16 0.96 yuan/kg of Daqiang Grain and Oil Business Department in Neihuang County, Anyang, and net grain 14 0.98 yuan/kg of Cao Kuojun Grain Store in qingfeng county, Puyang.
Xinxiang Yanjin Hongda Grain and Oil Trading Company's net grain 15 0.96 yuan/kg Shangqiu Xiayi County Xiayi net grain 17 0.98 yuan/kg.
The corn sold in Xiping County of Zhumadian is not delivered to the car. Net grain 16 0.94 yuan/kg. Second, the future corn price trend forecast:
In the early stage, under the background of the implementation of quantitative easing monetary policy in major economies around the world and rising inflation expectations in China, American corn was once pushed up to the 600-cent mark, and even with the help of themes such as reduced production in the United States and farmers' reluctance to sell in China, corn hit record highs. The high price has caused subtle changes in the relationship between supply and demand of corn at home and abroad. Under the pressure of continuous warming of regulatory policies and increasing market supply, even the corn market outlook is expected to continue the road of "reducing fever". On the macro level, in order to curb the flood of market liquidity, especially after the second quantitative easing policy was introduced in the United States, China faced the risk of a large inflow of international hot money, and the central bank successively introduced a series of austerity policies. While implementing the policy of tightening monetary policy, the State Council first deployed "four measures" and then introduced "Article 16" to stabilize prices and curb inflation. As soon as China's four articles were released, commodity prices fell, and even corn hit a daily limit. Article 16 of China's "Standardizing the Order of Agricultural Products Management and Deep Processing" specifically mentions that corn deep processing enterprises should be thoroughly cleaned up and those that violate regulations should be shut down. Although the impact of this regulation on large companies is relatively limited, as a variety criticized by name, the psychological pressure on the market and speculative funds is self-evident. At the micro level, in the middle of 5438+ 10, the Notice of General Office of the State Council on Doing a Good Job in Autumn Grain Purchase and Current Grain Market Regulation was issued to all relevant enterprises and institutions. 1654381October 4th, the State Grain Administration issued the Circular on the Supervision and Inspection of Autumn Grain Purchase in 20 10, which made it clear that "enterprises directly under the Central Grain Reserve shall not engage in other business activities other than those directly related to the rotation of reserve throughput, and shall be ordered to make corrections, given a warning and reported to relevant state departments in time." At the same time, several large state-owned enterprises and some southern feed production and processing enterprises in Zhongzitou reduced their subsidies for purchasing corn in Northeast China by half. 1 1 day, the State Grain Administration issued a document again, saying that it intends to introduce COFCO, Hualiang Group, China China Textile Group, Heilongjiang Provincial Land Reclamation Bureau and other enterprises into the field of central grain reserve storage. Decentralized grain storage leads to diversified competition in purchasing and storage. Although the increase in buyers may push up food prices, competition has given farmers more choices, and at the same time, the supervision stick has swung to grain storage and storage, further proving the government's determination to regulate and control. In addition, due to the difficulty in purchasing new corn in domestic producing areas and rising prices, domestic grain-using enterprises once turned their attention back to the auction market, and the results of inter-provincial corn auctions rebounded sharply in the week of the 9th. However, on June 5438+06, when Zhou Guojia's relevant departments suddenly revised the rules of inter-provincial corn transfer transactions and restricted the qualifications of enterprises participating in the bidding and the number of acquisitions, the transaction rate of inter-provincial corn transfer plummeted, and the regulation effect appeared. Due to the lack of new supporting news and the release of systemic risks near the end of the year, the market took profits and the phenomenon of funds leaving the market became more obvious. Judging from CFTC fund positions, as of the week of 165438+ 10/6, speculative funds have reduced their long positions for two weeks in a row, and the net long positions of the fund have shown a decreasing trend, and the proportion of net long positions in the total positions of the fund has dropped significantly, which is expected to further decrease. At present, profit-taking has successfully pulled the price up and down by nearly 15% from the 27-month high reached at the beginning of this month.
Basically, the tight supply caused by the limited price support of corn in the United States has been digested by the market. USDA's monthly supply and demand report112011lowered the annual corn yield, output and carry-over inventory in the United States, and the decline exceeded market expectations. Due to the continuous increase in the price of corn in the United States in the early stage, and the fact that some major importing countries are currently facing a bumper harvest of corn, the corn supply is relatively sufficient and the import enthusiasm has weakened, resulting in the continued sluggish demand for corn exports in the United States. In addition, American ethanol faces the risk that the "mixed fuel tax relief measures" will expire on 65438+February 3 1. According to the forecast of the US Department of Agriculture, nearly 40% of the corn harvest this year will be used for ethanol production. If this tax reduction measure cannot be extended, the reduction of ethanol exports will directly affect the demand for corn. The tight domestic supply situation will be alleviated. In terms of supply, China's corn output in 2009 was about 654.38+0.55 billion tons, and the agency predicted that this year's corn output would be between 654.38+0.58 billion tons and 654.38+0.68 billion tons, an increase of 2%-8% compared with last year. 165438+ 10 The USDA supply and demand report raised the corn production in China by 2 million tons to1680,000 tons, which was at a historical high. The author learned from the investigation of corn in the northeast harvest period organized by Dashang in June+10, 5438 that both farmers and grain users reflected that the yield and quality of corn this year were better than last year, and it was a foregone conclusion to increase production. At present, the shortage of domestic supply is mainly due to farmers' reluctance to sell in the early stage, which makes the mobile grain source in the market limited. However, with the increase in prices, farmers' enthusiasm for selling grain is expected to gradually increase, and the increase in the amount of new grain on the market will gradually suppress the price of corn. In terms of spot, the wait-and-see attitude of spot traders has been enhanced due to the sharp drop in futures prices and the expected strengthening of state regulation. However, due to the poor weather conditions in Northeast China, the purchase price of corn is still stable and strong, and the overall price of corn in northern ports remains relatively firm. However, due to the auction and arrival of goods, the price of southern ports has weakened slightly. Recently, the weather in most parts of Shandong Province is good, and the purchase volume of enterprises has increased significantly. The purchase price of corn in local grain enterprises has generally fallen to control costs, and the procurement department still has plans to continue to reduce it in the near future. On the demand side, after the two festivals, the whole aquaculture market showed a trend of "pre-holiday decline and post-holiday slight increase", and the pig-grain ratio also broke the pattern of 12 weeks and remained at around 6.3: 1. The ratio of pig to grain once rose to the highest point of the year, 7. 12. However, due to the large increase in the previous period, the introduction of national price control measures also suppressed the pig price, and the pig-grain ratio fell from a high level. As of the week of 26th, the average pig-grain ratio was 6.99, which was 0. 13 lower than that of the previous week. At the same time, the profit of pig breeding has also declined slightly, and the short-term feed demand of corn price is difficult to predict. It is difficult for the surrounding markets to boost corn. Because the planting areas of corn and soybean are close, there is a long-term dispute over planting area between them. The reasonable price range of American beans/American corn is between 2.2 and 2.8, with an average of about 2.5. At present, the price has rebounded to around 2.3, which is in a reasonable range, but it is still below the average level, so it is difficult to boost the price of corn. Recently, China's regulatory policy, the Irish debt crisis and the tension on the Korean Peninsula have caused the risk aversion in the market to rise rapidly. At present, the dollar has stabilized at 80 points, and the rise of the dollar will obviously suppress commodity prices. Because of the heavy demand of American corn industry, it also determines its close relationship with crude oil price. However, with the strengthening of the US dollar and the rising floating reserves of global crude oil, it is difficult for crude oil to stabilize above $85, so the boost to corn is limited, and the United States' mixed fuel tax relief measures will expire soon, which will further weaken the demand for industrial corn. Outlook for the market outlook: At present, the US dollar has stabilized by 80 points. The Irish debt crisis and the tension on the Korean peninsula have caused the market risk aversion to rise rapidly. At the same time, China's CPI rose by 5438+065438+ 10 in June, which may hit a new high. The pressure of China government to implement austerity policy is still enormous. The central bank has issued a series of policies to show the government's determination to control inflation. China may enter the cycle of raising interest rates, and systemic risks will seriously drag down the commodity market, and the macro level will still be negative. In CBOT, high prices have curbed export sales, and the uncertainty of American ethanol policy has also covered the market. Weak demand will undoubtedly suppress prices. The report of USDA 165438+ 10 Lido has also been digested by the market. The CBOT corn futures market lacks new supporting news and will continue to be weak in the short term. Domestically, high prices have led some farmers to start selling their corn, and the listing of new corn will alleviate the current tight supply situation. Under the dual pressure of increasing new grain market and strengthening regulatory policies, it is expected that corn prices will continue to fall under pressure in the short term. Original address:/20101201/48327.html.