With the outbreak of new energy vehicles, related industries have been pushed to the forefront together. This time, it is the charging track that walks in front of the stage.
A few days ago, the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration issued the "Implementation Opinions on Further Improving the Service Support Capacity of Charging and Replacing Infrastructure (Draft for Comment)" (hereinafter referred to as the draft). After the release of this document, the charging pile sector rose accordingly that day, which shows the market's sensitivity to this field.
On the same day when the document was released, a technical innovation conference on electric vehicle charging facilities was also held in Qingdao, and hundreds of front-line engineers and technicians from the industry started a pure technical discussion.
Over one trillion market scale
In April this year, new energy vehicles stood out at the Shanghai International Auto Show. According to the statistics of China Automobile Industry Association, the production and sales of new energy vehicles from January to April this year were 75, and 732,, up 2.6 times and 2.5 times respectively. As of March this year, the number of new energy vehicles in China was 5.51 million, accounting for 1.92% of the total number of vehicles. Among them, there are 4.49 million pure electric vehicles, accounting for 81.53% of the total new energy vehicles.
according to the plan, the sales of new energy vehicles will account for 2% in 225, pure electric vehicles will become the mainstream of newly sold vehicles, and vehicles in the public sector will be fully electrified.
the accompanying charging market space is also huge. In terms of the number of public charging piles, the data show that in 219, there were 516, in China, 255, in the European Union, 72, in the United States and 32, in Japan, with a global compound annual growth rate of 32%. The scale of China's charging industry ranked first in the world, accounting for more than half of the world's total.
according to the report "Global EV Outlook 219" released by IEA and the research by Ren Zeping of Evergrande research institute, by 23, the number of private charging piles in the world is expected to reach 128-245 million respectively, with a total charging power of 1,-1,8 GW and a total charging capacity of 48-82 TWh; The number of public charging piles is expected to reach 1-2 million, with a total charging power of 113-215GW and a total charging capacity of 7-124 TWh.
according to the global average, in 23, the average price of public * * * piles is 3,/set, the average price of private charging piles is 4,/set, the electricity fee is .5 yuan /kWh, and the service fee is .7 yuan /kWh. Therefore, in 23, the global charging pile scale is .81-1.58 trillion yuan, and the charging cost is .66-1.13 trillion yuan, which is about 1.1 * *.
the domestic market is the largest automobile market in the world, and because of different national conditions, the ratio of public piles to private piles is much higher than that in Europe and America, which is expected to account for 4% of the global charging pile market, so the domestic charging pile equipment and service market will reach 6 -1.8 trillion. At present, nearly 13 domestic charging equipment manufacturers have adopted it.
faced with such market space, China's industry has also made development plans. According to Technology Roadmap 2. for Energy-saving and New Energy Vehicles, the development of charging infrastructure is targeted by stages. In 225, there will be more than 13 million slow-charging ports (including self-owned piles and public * * * piles) and about 8, public * * fast-charging ports (including special fields). Ensure the annual power supply demand of 1 billion kW.h and support the charging of more than 2 million vehicles. Slow-charging piles in newly-built urban communities are built in a ratio of 1:1, and the wireless slow-charging reaches 6- 1kW, and pilot projects of high-power fast-charging cities are carried out; 3, quick-change stations have been built, and the technical standards for power exchange have been developed.
by 235, there will be more than 15 million slow-charging ports in China, with 1: 1 parking space for slow-charging ports and 1.46 million public * * fast-charging ports. Ensure the annual power supply demand of 5 billion kW.h, and support more than 15 million vehicles to charge and replace electricity.
At the same time, it is necessary to drive more than 3Km in 5 minutes with high power and fast charge, and the automatic quick change time will reach 1.5 minutes, so as to promote the new energy consumption by more than 1 billion kWh per year.
At the first China Electric Vehicle Charging Facility Technology Innovation Conference held on May 2th, Shao Zhehai, the former chief expert of Putian New Energy Co., Ltd., pointed out that there will be three major trends in the future development of charging facility technology. "First, to meet the needs of efficient service application in charging scenarios, with the full electrification of private cars, official cars, buses, commuter buses, taxis, network cars, light freight cars and some special vehicles, high-power charging, wireless charging and direct current charging, The second is to improve the efficiency of charging service, ensure the safety of charging, and realize the automatic charging experience. Intelligent technology and artificial intelligence will be widely used in the charging facility network. The third is the trend of efficient interaction and deep integration between charging infrastructure and electric energy, especially renewable energy. "
The dispute over the route of charging and replacing electricity
There are two development modes in the industry, one is charging, and the other is exchanging electricity through * * *.
in the charging direction, there are mainly TEX, Infineon, HKUST Intelligent, Autoxun, etc. In the power changing direction, there are mainly Zhongheng Electric, Xuji Electric, Beiqi Blue Valley, etc., and the dispute over the route of power supply solutions has become the focus.
Lan Zhibo, vice president of technology of Aodong New Energy Automobile Technology Co., Ltd. said, "Charging has a very basic related problem-time, charging time is in the travel link, and it is not a very matching thing at present, which takes a long time. The power exchange is not only "fast", but also makes up for the lack of charging and creates a full-scenario energy supply service solution for users. "
Lan Zhibo pointed out that using vehicles with high load rate requires high time, which is often referred to as operating vehicles, while private cars do not. However, when private cars need to be recharged, users still have a high demand for time and have a demand for efficient energy replenishment. "How to match the efficient charging energy supply method for users is a problem that the electric vehicle industry needs to seriously consider. Especially for high-load vehicles (operating vehicles), it is necessary to establish an efficient charging and recharging solution. "
Regarding * * * power exchange, Lan Zhibo said, "For users, * * * power exchange improves the convenience of car owners and is beneficial to users. For operators, * * * power exchange improves the commercialization of power exchange operation and is beneficial to sustainable operation. In addition, * * * power exchange reduces the total cost of social resources and is beneficial to society."
Yu Dexiang, chairman of TELECOM, who is mainly engaged in charging network business, said that the cost of replacing electricity is higher than that of charging, and it is difficult to form a commercial closed loop. "The cost is high. Users who pass it on to users will not pay the bill, but if they don't pass it on, they will not be profitable. Changing electricity also requires laying a large network, and the investment scale is much larger than charging. "
Yu Dexiang pointed out that in hot cities of electric vehicles, such as Beijing, a good charging station can recover its cost in two years, but for the convenience of customers, it will take at least 4-5 years to build a charging network for the city. "To build a good power exchange station, the best scenario takes 3-4 years to recover the cost, and it takes at least 6-8 years or even longer to build a power exchange network for a city and serve those dedicated tram exchanges." In addition, he believes that the difficulties in battery standardization and coordination with the power grid are the pain points of the power exchange track.
Aside from the commercial debate, from the policy point of view, charging and replacing electricity are all supported. In the 221 government work report, new facilities such as charging piles and replacing power stations are proposed. In the opinion draft released on May 2, it is proposed to optimize the financial and tax support policies for the construction of charging and replacing facilities, and strengthen the subsidy support and tax incentives for guaranteed charging and replacing facilities such as highways, towns and residential communities. At the same time, it is necessary to improve the ability of financial services, and include qualified charging and replacing facilities and supporting power grid construction and transformation investment into the support scope of new infrastructure special bonds and China Clean Development Mechanism Fund. Financial institutions such as China Development Bank provide long-term low-cost funds for the construction of charging and replacing facilities through various channels. Encourage insurance institutions to develop commercial insurance products suitable for charging and replacing facilities.
from the technical trend of the two, on the one hand, it is the trend of high power and fast charging. With the improvement of high-rate performance of the battery, the charging goal of Chaoji is that passenger cars can achieve a driving range of more than 3Km+ after 5 minutes of charging. On the other hand, it is the trend of * * * enjoyment of power exchange, and the quick exchange technology will tend to be mature. It is expected to be the first to be widely used in the field of rental/network car rental and heavy-duty vehicles, and ToC will be driven by ToB, forming an original power exchange platform and * * * enjoying the battery rental format.
Zhou Libo, director of the Comprehensive and Planning Division of the Standardization Management Center of China Electric Power Enterprise Federation, analyzed that from the comparison of the service capabilities of the power exchange station and the fast charging station, "Take the comparison of 6kw DC charging and power exchange in the same unit area as an example, the battery replacement mode is greater than 24-3 times/day/standard parking space, and the fast charging mode is greater than 6-8 times/day/standard parking space. Judging from the economic comparison of investment and construction, on the basis of the same service capacity, the cost of changing electricity to build a station is about 1.8-2 million yuan, and the cost of building a fast charging station is about 4,-5, yuan. "
Zhou Libo said that the industrialization promotion of battery replacement technology for electric vehicles (battery replacement) mainly lies in the business model. In the future, battery replacement technology will still be mainly applied to specific vehicles running in local areas, such as taxis, rentals, buses, etc. Considering the cascade utilization of batteries and the development of energy storage and energy Internet, there is still room for exploration.
Regarding the charging mode, she pointed out that high-power charging and wireless charging are the two major development directions of electric vehicle charging technology at present, and ChaoJi charging technology is the direction of high-power charging. At the same time, with the continuous development of automobile intelligence and networking, the demand for wireless charging will increase day by day.
The war of charging piles is not the story of * * * enjoying a bicycle.
"For the charging network, it includes electricity, energy, big data and other related majors. It is a new technology, cross-discipline, cross-industry, cross-enterprise and cross-category comprehensive discipline facing new industries. It is difficult for a single company to complete it independently and needs a big system to support it." Yu Dexiang said, "Many small companies think that they can make money by getting a charging pile, and they can do charging by getting a charging pile. They feel that there is no threshold for technology. This is all incomprehensible."
"The charging business must be made into a network. Without a network, you can't live. For example, if you are a PHS now, will someone use it? The charging network is like mobile and China Unicom. It serves the mobile phone. The mobile phone is moving and walks with people, so it must have a network, and the attributes of electric vehicles are the same. Electric vehicles are moving, as long as they move. Things have to have a network. " Yu Dexiang said, "As long as there is a network, it will not be a small business. It must become a service for almost all businesses to survive."
"At the same time, many people think of the charging network as a consumer Internet platform, which is also wrong." Yu Dexiang said that the charging network is an information technology facility that links people, cars, batteries and energy. It is not the same as the traditional charging pile is just a one-way physical charging plug. On this system, there are huge interactions between people and vehicles and devices every day. "It is an industrial Internet thinking to make a charging network. The data of the industrial Internet grows, while the consumer Internet is a' cloud' floating in the sky. It is impossible to make an industrial Internet with Internet thinking.
Yu Dexiang believes that the concentration of the charging industry will become higher and higher. "Without the accumulation of time and technology, it is difficult for the closed loop of the entire industrial chain to become the head if it runs less than 1%."
Safety and endurance are the pain points
running all the way, what is the pain point from the user's point of view?
Chen Xiaonan, head of the charging technology branch of State Grid Electric Vehicle Service Co., Ltd., pointed out that at present, battery fire accidents of electric vehicles happen occasionally, which has a certain negative impact on industrial development. For example, at the equipment level, people get an electric shock due to untimely operation and maintenance or improper user operation.
The "Car Burning Guarantee Service"
"The charging process and the static state after full charge are the main parts of fire accidents, which are mostly in the state of high charge." Ju Qiang, chief scientist of TEL, pointed out that it is most suitable for battery safety monitoring only during charging.
"Historical data also shows that 8% of auto-ignition accidents of new energy vehicles occurred during charging or one hour after full charging. This means that if the charging safety can be ensured, the spontaneous combustion accident of electric vehicles can be greatly reduced. " Ju Peng said.
in addition, industry research believes that there are still shortcomings in the planning of public charging facilities. Chen Xiaonan, head of State Grid electric vehicles, said that there are still shortcomings in the industry, such as imperfect planning guarantee mechanism, unbalanced regional development, mismatch between supply and demand, and low comprehensive utilization rate. The development of the charging industry is still a systematic project.
Another Trillion Market
Electric vehicle charging business is not the only target aimed at by head enterprises, and energy storage is another big market.
At present, under the goal of "carbon neutrality", energy storage will usher in a leap-forward development opportunity. According to the calculation of Everbright Securities, the energy storage demand space will be 3.9TWh from 22 to 23 and the energy storage investment market space will be 94 TWh from 22 to 26. In 23, the energy storage investment market space will be 1.3 trillion yuan.
Recently, the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration issued "Guiding Opinions on Accelerating the Development of New Energy Storage (Draft for Comment)", which defined the development goal of the energy storage industry for the first time. By 225, the installed capacity of new energy storage will reach more than 3 million kilowatts (3GW), setting the tone for the energy storage industry to develop from the initial stage of commercialization to scale.
In recent years, TEPCO, State Grid, BYD, etc. have all laid out in this field one after another. The common practice is to use the power battery of electric vehicles as the energy storage carrier to do comprehensive energy management.
for a special call focusing on charging business, it has abundant load-side resources such as electric vehicle charging piles, distributed energy storage, controllable loads, etc., and has its own aggregator platform, which can aggregate the dispersed controllable loads into a relatively large-scale "polymer", and the microgrid supported by the power grid is connected to photovoltaic and energy storage, so that energy can be balanced and absorbed locally within the microgrid.