In the past few decades, the growth rate of money supply has been very strong. In 2, the total amount of M2 was about 12 trillion.

22 years have passed. Do you know what the money supply is now?

as shown in the figure below, by January 222, the total M2 reached 243 trillion.

in 22 years, the total M2 has increased by 22 times.

people who bought houses around 2, for example, in our small county, around 2, at that time, they could buy a house for 3, to 5, yuan. Now, a house is generally 5,1 yuan, and a house costs about 5, yuan. After 22 years, the number of houses in small county has increased more than ten times.

in provincial capitals and first-tier cities, the price increase is even higher and even more outrageous.

around 2, the housing price in Shanghai was like this, which was only 3, yuan, and it could be won for 3, yuan.

In Shanghai now, the average price is about 6, yuan.

In the past 22 years, house prices in most places have increased by more than 1 times, or even more than 2 times. The growth rate of house prices barely outperformed the growth rate of M2.

In the past few decades, a large part of the money released by M2 was absorbed by the "reservoir" of real estate, and then we looked at rice, flour and the like. Around 2, we could sell one or two yuan a catty. Twenty-two years later, the price of rice is still two or three yuan a catty, which has not even doubled.

In the past twenty years, although the money supply has increased by 22 times and the house price has risen sharply, everyone's salary has also increased many times, while the price of daily necessities to solve the problem of food and clothing has not increased much, so everyone feels that life is getting better and better, and they are getting richer and purchasing power is getting stronger.

But as we all know, the trend of housing prices depends on the population for a long time, and the number of newly-added people is declining. Most people in small places are flocking to provincial capital cities or first-tier cities, and then the population in many places has been flowing out or decreasing. After the population in most places is reduced, it is too difficult to reproduce the glory of housing prices 2 years ago.

Moreover, there are still policies to prevent housing speculation. Therefore, in the long run, it is estimated that it is difficult for the increase of housing prices to outperform the growth rate of M2, and it is not realistic to use real estate as a reservoir again.

But the printed money will always find a place. At this time, most people think of the stock market.

so, how many times has the market value of a shares increased in the past 2 years?

Some netizens can refer to the historical data in the post bar:

In 2, the total market value of A shares was about 4.8 trillion, and the closing price of the Shanghai Composite Index was 273;

by the end of 221, there were 4,615 listed companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, with a total market value of 91.6 trillion.

In the past 22 years, the total market value of A-shares has increased by 19 times, and the storage speed of A-share reservoirs is actually very close to the growth rate of M2.

However, there are too many new listed companies and too few delisted companies every year. For example, in 2, the number of listed companies in China was about 1,88, but now it is 4,662, and the number of listed companies has increased by 4.28 times.

Because the number of newly listed companies is too large, a large part of the market value is occupied after listing. Therefore, even though the Shanghai Composite Index was 2,73 at the end of 2, 22 years later, the Shanghai Composite Index was only 3,457, an increase of only a little more than half. This growth rate is far behind the M2 growth rate.

In the future, the stock market will still be a reservoir, and the growth rate of the total market value of A shares in the future is estimated to be the same as the growth rate of M2. However, because there are too many newly listed companies, it is estimated that it is still more difficult for the Shanghai Composite Index to outperform the growth rate of M2.

When people get richer and more fixed assets such as houses are almost allocated, as long as others don't go abroad, their assets will always find a place in China. Assets, in addition to fixed assets such as houses, are other financial assets. If money is to be invested in financial assets, it needs to flow into the capital market. The most common varieties in the capital market are stock market, bond market and foreign exchange market. And, of course, savings, too? Where to go, the growth rate is estimated to barely outperform the growth rate of M2.

As mentioned just now, the stock market will definitely continue to be a reservoir in the future, but due to the large number of newly listed companies, the index will rise slowly.

except the stock market, you can only go to the bond market and foreign exchange market. Of course, some people go to the foreign exchange market to exchange dollars, Europe and the United States and other foreign currencies, but in recent years, the RMB has actually appreciated. If the money from P2P went to exchange dollars in 218, it has not appreciated in the past three years. In fact, the US dollar has depreciated. If we want to exchange RMB now, we will actually lose money, not to mention the wasted capital cost in the past three years. If I had gone to exchange dollars in 2, I could only exchange 8 dollars for 1 dollar. At that time, if I had gone to exchange 8, dollars for 1, dollars, I could only exchange 63, RMB until now, which not only lost more than 1, yuan, but also lost 22 years of time cost.

after the stock market and foreign exchange market are removed, it is estimated that only the bond market will remain.

In domestic financing every year, the proportion of debt financing accounts for 9% of the total financing ratio. There must be a fundamental reason for the existence of this law. Moreover, like the zero substantive default of urban investment bonds in the past 29 years, the bond market in China is of course more popular.

In short, after China people become richer and richer, the capital market will definitely be the biggest reservoir in the future, and the role of A-shares as a reservoir will be more obvious than before. However, because too many new companies are listed and too few are delisted, most of the newly added market value will be shared, so the index will still rise slowly, and it will still be difficult to make money in the stock market. Few people play in the foreign exchange market, accounting for a small proportion. As a reservoir, the bond market will be an ideal pool. The overall default rate of domestic listed bonds is very low every year, which is generally around .2%. As for listed city investment bonds, the risk is even lower. . .

I'm the Buddha, a certified financial planner, with the qualifications of fund business and securities business, and I'm the author of the book Investment and Financial Management: Financial Thinking and Asset Portfolio Allocation Strategy, and a financial columnist.