The first cycle of US interest rate hike:1988.3-1989.5;
Background of interest rate hike: rising inflation; The benchmark interest rate was raised from 6.5% to 9.8 125%, and the stock market crash of 1987 led the Federal Reserve to adopt an emergency policy of cutting interest rates to rescue the market. Due to the timely rescue of the market, the stock market decline had little impact on the economy, inflation continued to rise from 1988, and the Federal Reserve began to raise interest rates in response. The interest rate finally rose to 9.75%, which was 1989. This round of austerity slowed down economic growth, followed by the rise in oil prices, and the uncertainty related to the first Gulf War, which began in August 1990, seriously affected economic activities and made monetary policy loose.
In the first round of interest rate hike, crude oil bottomed out at 15 USD in that month, and in the following month, the price of crude oil rose rapidly from 15 USD/barrel to 18 USD/barrel. During the whole interest rate hike cycle, the price was the highest at1April 20, 1989, reaching 25 USD/barrel, an increase.
The second cycle of US dollar interest rate hike:1994.2-1995.2;
Background of interest rate hike: inflation panic; The benchmark interest rate was raised from 3.25% to 6%. 1990- 199 1 After the economic recession, although the economic growth rate increased, the unemployment rate remained high. Falling inflation led the Federal Reserve to continue to cut interest rates to 3%. By 1994, the economic recovery was rekindled, and the bond market was worried about the resurgence of inflation. The yield of 10-year bonds rose from just over 5% to 8%, and the Federal Reserve raised the interest rate from 3% to 6%, thus controlling inflation and the bond yield dropped sharply. The flatter yield curve of American bonds prompted investors to seek higher overseas returns, so a large amount of funds flowed into Asian emerging markets until the Asian financial crisis broke out in 1997.
In the month of the second interest rate hike, crude oil bottomed out at $65,438 +03.8. In the following month, the price of crude oil rose rapidly from 13.9 USD/barrel to 20.98 USD/barrel, and the highest interest rate hike cycle reached 26.98 USD/barrel, an increase of over 90%.
The third cycle of US dollar interest rate hike:1999.6-2000.5;
Background of interest rate hike: Internet bubble; The benchmark interest rate was raised from 4.75% to 6.5%, GDP 1999 increased strongly, and the unemployment rate dropped to 4%. After the interest rate was lowered by 75 basis points to cope with the Asian financial crisis, the Internet boom at that time led to the growth of IT investment and the tendency of overheating economy. The Federal Reserve once again introduced austerity policies, raising interest rates from 4.75% to 6.5% six times. After the Internet bubble and Nasdaq bubble burst in 2000, the economy fell into recession again, and the aftermath of the 9 1 1 incident made the situation worse. The Fed stopped the process of raising interest rates, and began the process of continuously and substantially lowering interest rates at the beginning of the following year.
In the third round of interest rate hike, crude oil bottomed out at 16.32 USD in that month, and in the following 65438+May, the price of crude oil rose rapidly from 16.32 USD/barrel to 37 USD/barrel, with an increase of 120%.
The fourth interest rate hike cycle of the US dollar: June 2004-July 2006;
Background of interest rate hike: real estate bubble; The benchmark interest rate was raised from 65,438+0% to 5.25%. After the stock market bubble, the sharp drop in the interest rate of the Federal Reserve stimulated the real estate bubble in the United States. In the second half of 2003, the economy recovered strongly, and the rapid growth of demand led to the rise of inflation and core inflation. In 2004, the Federal Reserve began to tighten its policy, raising interest rates by 25 basis points 17 times in a row, and the federal funds rate reached 5.25% in June 2006. After the Fed raised interest rates continuously, another bubble, the American real estate bubble, was punctured, which became the fuse of the financial crisis, and the Fed began to cut interest rates again.
In the month of the fourth interest rate hike, crude oil bottomed out at $35.3, and in the following 24 months, the price of crude oil continued to rise, from $35.3/barrel to $78/barrel, with an increase of 1 18%.
In the past three decades, crude oil has risen by 358% in the four interest rate hike cycles of the US dollar. The fifth interest rate hike cycle of the US dollar in the next 30 years is approaching, and the intervention point of medium-term trading opportunities has been highlighted. Oriental Huineng Research Department leads high-end customers to lay out the fifth largest profit opportunity in 30 years. The opportunity is waiting. When the opportunity comes, it is more important to seize it.