Strategy: Actively grasp the structural investment opportunities of the stock market in an environment with abundant liquidity-February gold stock monthly report.
Core view
The stock market is full of liquidity, and the market sentiment will not be too weak. Structural differentiation continues the global currency overshooting environment. With the trend of China residents' assets transforming into investment, the A-share market has abundant funds, which makes the market do more. However, it should be noted that abundant liquidity does not bring about a general increase, but a continuous structural differentiation. The market is still in the stage of high fluctuation, high differentiation and high valuation, and only the value of high-quality assets can be continuously improved.
Actively grasp the deterministic opportunity of the industry boom brought by the policy.
202 1 is a crucial year for China's economic transformation and upgrading, and it is of great significance to start the Tenth Five-Year Plan well. It is suggested that industries that conform to the long-term prosperity trend of technology upgrading or consumption upgrading, such as new energy, high-end manufacturing and consumer services, should be actively laid out along the tone of the Tenth Five-Year Plan and the Central Economic Work Conference.
In the short term, we should pay attention to risk factors such as repeated epidemics, large market fluctuations and performance disclosure.
202 1 February Recommended Main Line
Risk warning
1) The risk of a shift in easing and stimulus policies; 2) The risk that the vaccine progress in COVID-19 will not reach the expected level; 3) The risk of intensification of Sino-US contradictions.
Macroscopically, the profits of the middle and upper reaches of industry go up, while the profits of sophisticated products go down —— Comments on the profits of industrial enterprises in May 438+February.
Core view
The overseas demand is relatively strong, which drives the profit upward, the production growth rate upward, the inventory increases slightly, the terminal demand is sufficient, the orders are equally sufficient, and the profits will continue to rise in the future. This month's profit is in line with the data. In June, 5438+February, exports reached a new high, but domestic demand declined slightly. External demand is stronger than domestic demand, and overseas demand boosts China's production under the epidemic.
Output and prices rise at the same time, pushing up profits.
The monthly growth rate of industrial profits in China is still high, the income curve of enterprises is upward, and the ex-factory products of industrial enterprises are increasing. In June 5438+February, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 7.3%, and the PMI production index reached 54.2% in June 5438+February, so the production of enterprises was relatively strong. The ex-factory price of products rose rapidly in February, which boosted profits. In June 5438+February, the PPI of industrial finished products was -0.4% year-on-year and 1. 1% quarter-on-quarter.
Mid-stream profits rose rapidly
During the period of 65438+February, the performance of the midstream industry was more prominent, and the profits of upstream and downstream continued to repair. Economic recovery depends on higher demand, which directly drives the profits of downstream industries, and industry rotation has extended to the upper and middle reaches.
The upstream benefited from the upward price of products, the midstream benefited from the increase of orders, and the profit of downstream labor-intensive products decreased.
Commodity prices rose, and the profits of ferrous metal mining, oil and coal processing, oil and gas mining, non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industries recovered best in June 5438+February. The recovery of the middle and upper reaches of the industry is also considerable, and the profits of the black industry have obviously recovered. The profit growth rate of equipment and chemical fiber manufacturing industry also increased year-on-year, and the return of COVID-19 is beneficial to pharmaceutical manufacturing industry. The profit growth rate of downstream labor-intensive commodity industries slowed down, and the profits of textiles and clothing, leather, fur and feathers declined. The profit of rubber and plastic products industry, which has been performing well since the epidemic, has declined slightly, which needs continuous observation. The profit of the automobile industry unexpectedly fell in June 5438+February, and the heat of the automobile industry declined slightly.
Due to the spring festival stocking, the inventory of finished products increased slightly.
The inventory of finished products has increased slightly, and the inventory may fluctuate. In 65438+February, the inventory of finished products went up, probably because of the preparation for the Spring Festival and the strong demand for terminals, so the inventory of finished products may remain at this level.
Industrial profits will continue to rise slowly.
The monthly growth rate of industrial profits increased significantly in 65438+February: (1) In 65438+February, the income of enterprises was good and the demand was still strong; (2) The rising trend of commodity prices leads to higher profits. China's economy is still in the recovery stage, and industrial production is expected to remain strong. Profit growth rate is lagging data, and it is estimated that 1 quarter profit will remain upward. The upward trend of industrial profits is expected to stop in the second quarter of 2002/kloc-0.
2020 is still the best profit repair in the middle reaches.
In 2020, due to the recovery of production, the profit growth rate of raw materials industry and equipment industry is the fastest. Due to the shortage of supply, the price of iron ore has risen rapidly, and the profit of non-ferrous metals has risen with the ferrous metal industry. The paper-making, chemical raw materials and chemical products industries with partial cycle have a good profit performance. The rise of these industries has driven the upward trend of equipment profits.
Petrochemical: Industry performance is expected to improve periodically, and fund positions will increase substantially.
Core view
In 2020, China's crude oil demand will increase by 5.7 1% year-on-year, and its dependence on foreign countries will reach a record high.
On the whole, in 2020, China processed 674 million tons of crude oil, a year-on-year increase of 3.44%; Output 1.95 billion tons, positive growth for two consecutive years, with a year-on-year increase of 2.04%; Imported crude oil was 542 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 7.25%; The apparent consumption of crude oil was 736 million tons, up 5.71%year-on-year; The dependence on foreign countries reached 73.5%, 0.95 percentage points higher than the previous year and a record high. In 2020, the apparent demand for refined oil in China decreased by 6.58% year-on-year, with a negative growth for three consecutive years.
In 2020, China's refined oil output was 336,543.8 billion tons, down 8.06% year-on-year; The export of refined oil was 45.73 million tons, down17.39% year-on-year; Apparent consumption of refined oil was 290 million tons, down 6.58% year-on-year. Among them, the apparent consumption of gasoline, kerosene and diesel oil changed by -7. 17%,-14.72% and -3.9 1% respectively. Because the domestic refined oil market is saturated, the proportion of refined oil production is gradually decreasing, and more people turn to producing chemicals.
Oil prices rose slightly in June 5438+ 10, and it is expected that February will be dominated by narrow fluctuations.
Stimulated by Saudi Arabia's announcement that it will actively implement unilateral production reduction of 654.38+0,000 barrels per day in February and March, oil prices ushered in a slight increase at 654.38+ 10. As of165438 on October 27th, Brent and WTI oil prices reached 55.8 1 USD and 52.85/USD respectively, an increase of more than 7% compared with the beginning of the year. Considering that the current oil price has already reflected the comprehensive impact of the new round of blockade caused by the COVID-19 epidemic and the unilateral production reduction of Saudi Arabia, it is expected that the oil price will mainly fluctuate within a narrow range in the next few weeks. However, in the medium and long term, as the demand for crude oil brought by vaccination in COVID-19 continues to improve, the supply and demand of crude oil are expected to improve marginally and the price is expected to rise.
The performance of the industry is better than the overall market, ranking third in the secondary sub-industry of 109.
Year-to-date, the yield of petrochemical industry is 19.80%, which is better than the broader market, and ranks third in the secondary sub-industry of 109. As of June 27th, 65438+/kloc-0, the overall valuation of the petrochemical sector (PE(TTM)) was about 21.59x. With the quarterly improvement of performance, the industry valuation level gradually returned to a reasonable level.
Capital proposal
Risk warning
The risk of falling oil prices, the risk of falling product spreads, and the risk that the income is less than expected.