the expansion of China's import and export surplus of goods trade is influenced by both subjective and objective factors. From the subjective factors: First, China is in a specific historical development period, and the productivity has been greatly improved, but the consumption demand needs to be further expanded; Second, the global manufacturing industry has shifted to China, forming a manufacturing system with complete categories and strong supporting capabilities, and the import demand for general products has weakened; Third, the Chinese government promotes the development of the export industry and supports the import substitution industry to become mature; Fourth, in order to protect relatively weak industries, the state has carried out trade protection to a certain extent in terms of tariff barriers. From the objective factors: First, the world economic growth momentum is good and the external demand is strong, which drives China's export growth; Second, the growth of domestic investment has slowed down, and the price increase of resource products such as oil in the international market has affected imports, but it has driven exports; Third, some developed countries have imposed multiple restrictions on China's technology exports, further expanding China's trade surplus; Fourth, China's RMB exchange rate is undervalued.

keywords: demand for trade surplus of goods in balance of payments RMB exchange rate

In the first half of p>25, China's national economy developed rapidly, foreign trade grew rapidly, and foreign direct investment maintained a large scale. The current account surplus of the balance of payments was $67.3 billion, the capital and financial account surplus was $38.3 billion, and the balance of the country's foreign exchange reserves was $711 billion at the end of June. In the first half of the year, the current account surplus was $67.3 billion, an increase of 81%. The increase in the current account surplus is mainly due to the sharp increase in the trade surplus of goods. In the first half of the year, China's trade in goods continued to maintain a rapid growth trend. According to the balance of payments, the total import and export value of goods trade was US$ 63.7 billion, a year-on-year increase of 24%. Among them, exports were 342.5 billion US dollars and imports were 288.2 billion US dollars, up by 33% and 14% respectively; The trade surplus of goods was $54.2 billion, an increase of 82.3%.

the expansion of import and export surplus of goods trade is influenced by both subjective and objective factors.

From the subjective factors:

First, China is in a specific historical development period, with a substantial increase in productivity, but consumer demand needs to be further expanded.

since the reform and opening-up 28 years ago, China's economy has been growing rapidly, with an average GDP growth rate of 9.6%. Some experts estimate that it will maintain a high growth rate of around 7% by 22. China's economy has become the leader of the global economy, mainly because the reform and opening up has greatly stimulated economic vitality and liberated social productive forces. Reform and opening up are like two giant wheels that automatically slide forward, which greatly improve China's productivity and promote China's rapid economic growth. On the other hand, the substantial increase in productivity has not caused the synchronous growth of China's consumer demand. Due to the widening income distribution gap in China, the average social consumption tendency has been reduced. Theoretically speaking, different income classes have different consumption tendencies, with high-income earners having lower marginal consumption tendencies and low-income earners having higher ones. According to the statistics of the National Bureau of Statistics, the income gap between residents has gradually widened in the past two decades, and the average degree of income distribution has declined. However, increasing residents' income and establishing an effective social security system are the fundamental guarantee for the long-term stable growth of consumption. Therefore, raising the income level of residents, especially the middle and low income classes, and narrowing the income gap among all classes can improve the average consumption tendency of the whole society, thus further expanding consumer demand.

Second, the global manufacturing industry has shifted to China, forming a manufacturing system with complete categories and strong supporting capacity, and the import demand for general products has weakened.

multinational companies move part of their production or services overseas, which leads to lower labor costs, lower taxes and lower other costs borne by enterprises. One of the effects of this kind of transnational outsourcing is that the comparative advantage pattern of countries has been reorganized, and there is also a time lag in the reorganization, that is, labor-intensive production and services are usually outsourced first to countries such as China and India with lower labor costs. Developed countries feel the pressure and turn to create higher-grade products or services in order to create new employment opportunities and new export advantages. However, this process often lags behind for a period of time, thus forming a time difference. At this stage, the trade imbalance will expand. However, a processing trade base dominated by foreign-funded enterprises has been formed in China, and the supply chain has been continuously extended and the added value has been continuously improved. However, the substantial increase in production and sales of foreign direct investment in China partially replaced China's imports, forming a manufacturing system with complete categories and strong supporting capacity, which weakened the import demand for general products. There are many products with foreign brands and designs in China market, but a considerable part of them have been produced in China by foreign direct investment.

thirdly, the Chinese government has promoted the development of export industry and supported the import substitution industry.

The current huge current account and capital account surplus are also related to China's existing foreign investment and foreign trade policies. The basic framework of China's existing foreign trade and foreign investment policies was formed in the early stage of reform and opening up. In the early 198s, China was a typical "double gap" developing economy lacking both capital and foreign exchange. In order to earn more foreign exchange and overcome the bottleneck of foreign exchange gap on China's economic development, the China government began to adopt export tax rebate and other policies in 1985 to encourage exports. Stimulated by these policies, China's foreign trade grew very fast, with an average annual growth rate of 17% from 1978 to 25, more than twice the growth rate of 8% in the same period of the world, and the foreign trade increased 68 times in 27 years. On the other hand, China government supports domestic companies to upgrade their industrial structure, which leads to a large number of import substitution. Import substitution industry is the support direction of Chinese government's industrial policy. Although the scientific and technological foundation of China's manufacturing industry has been weak, and the process of industrial upgrading is arduous and long-term, it will be a long-term phenomenon to realize local upgrading through import substitution. The support of active industrial policy is not short-term, and it can bring "industrial policy dividend effect" in a long period of time. Recently, with foreign companies in China, especially in the field of electronics industry, more and more parts are purchased from domestic suppliers, resulting in a large number of import substitutions.

fourth, the state protects some relatively weak industries to a certain extent in terms of tariff barriers.

In order to protect some relatively weak industries, such as insurance, automobile and so on, the country can have a stronger competitive condition at home and abroad after China's entry into WTO, so as to protect its trade in terms of tariff barriers to a certain extent. This makes foreign similar industries lose their competitiveness at home, which also reduces China's import demand to some extent. However, after 25, the protection policies of many industries and industries will be gradually abolished, and the competitiveness of some weak industries has not been fundamentally strengthened in recent years, such as agriculture, and some industries with comparative advantages, such as home appliances and textiles, are faced with problems such as how to open up the international market, improve the core competitiveness of products and enhance the independent innovation ability of enterprises.

From the objective factors:

First, the world economic growth momentum is good and the external demand is strong, which drives China's export growth.

from an international perspective, the world economy is growing steadily, and the International Monetary Fund predicts that the global economy will grow by 4.3% in 25, which is still at a high level; The prices of oil-based energy and raw materials in the international market will continue to operate at a high level due to the dual factors of demand and speculation; In order to curb the rise in oil prices and domestic inflationary pressures, the Federal Reserve continues to adopt a tight monetary policy and raise interest rates in small steps, so it is possible for the global economy to enter a rate hike cycle. Domestically, the domestic economy will maintain a rapid growth momentum in the second half of the year, and the state will further improve macro-control, consolidate the achievements of macro-control, and focus on expanding domestic demand, especially consumer demand; Accelerate the development of the capital market and steadily promote the shareholding system reform of state-owned commercial banks; Despite the inflationary pressure, it is generally within the controllable range, and the negative spread between local and foreign currencies may expand. Based on the above factors, both internal and external demand will increase strongly, which will not only stimulate the growth of exports, but also reduce some import demand.

Second, the growth of domestic investment has slowed down. The rising prices of oil and other resource products in the international market have affected imports, but promoted exports.

The characteristics of investment in China in the first half of p>25 are: the growth rate of investment in the primary industry is accelerated, and the growth rate of investment in the secondary and tertiary industries is slowed down; The growth rate of investment in key industries continued to slow down; The growth rate of investment in various registered types continued to decline; Investment in the eastern and western regions declined slightly, while investment in the central region increased slightly; The source of domestic loans declined slightly, and the growth rate of self-raised funds increased slightly; New projects continued to grow, but the number of new projects started in the month decreased compared with the previous month; The growth rate of real estate investment increased slightly. Although the international oil cost remains high, the China government has limited the rise of retail prices of major oil products. In this way, the oil price has only impacted the oil companies in China. In order to cope with the rising oil price, oil companies have reduced their oil supply to the domestic market and chose to export more refined oil products instead. At the same time, China government encourages these oil companies to reduce oil imports. Thus, from January to July, 25, China's crude oil imports only increased by 6%, while refined petroleum products exports soared by 46%.

Third, some developed countries imposed multiple restrictions on China's technology export, which further expanded China's trade surplus.

according to the principle of free trade based on comparative advantages, China has a great demand for overseas raw materials and technology-intensive products. However, some developed countries have imposed various restrictions on the export of high-tech equipment to China under the pretext of national security. After the dissolution of the Paris Coordinating Committee, the export control policies of some countries to China have not been relaxed, but have been strengthened, which will naturally increase the bilateral trade imbalance. In the early days, western developed countries mainly aimed at curbing the development of China's military power, and the restrictions were mainly aimed at military technology and products, which were full of cold war colors. With the continuous strengthening of China's national strength, the export restrictions of western developed countries to China have changed with equal emphasis on military and high technology. Western developed countries look at their exports to China from the strategic height of national competition and ensure their national strength by various control means. Since the 199s, the strict control measures implemented by the export control departments of developed countries in high-tech exports and project cooperation with China are also important reasons for the expansion of China's trade surplus in goods.

Fourth, China's RMB exchange rate is undervalued.

after 1994, China's trade balance showed a surplus year after year, which was in line with the exchange rate in 1994. The devaluation of RMB stimulated exports, but the nominal exchange rate of RMB basically did not change in the following years, and the real effective exchange rate still showed a trend of appreciation, but it still maintained a trade surplus. Although there have been different opinions about whether there is any actual connection between RMB appreciation and the trade surplus of goods, the low exchange rate has indeed helped China to increase its exports of goods to a certain extent.

under the influence of the above subjective and objective factors, it is predicted that China's balance of payments will still maintain a "double surplus" pattern, and foreign exchange reserves will grow rapidly. Among them, due to the large foreign trade surplus, current transfer and the increase of net inflow under income items, the current account will still maintain a large surplus, and the growth rate of capital and financial account surplus may slow down. Although the service trade will continue to be in deficit, the huge surplus of the goods trade is enough to drive the continuous surplus of the current account and further promote the steady improvement of China's economy.