First, the main news of the day focused on

1) International news

Federal Reserve Chairman Powell is "hawking": he will still raise interest rates substantially to fight inflation. Speaking at the annual meeting of global central banks in Jackson Hole, Powell said that the Fed will continue to take "strong" measures to fight inflation, but warned that strong interest rate hikes will bring "pain" to American families and businesses. Powell said that although the Fed has raised interest rates four times in a row, with a total increase of 2.25 percentage points, "there is no room to stop or pause" and reducing inflation to 2% remains the key goal of the Fed. Until the inflation problem is solved, people should not expect the Fed to dial back quickly. History strongly warns against relaxing the policy prematurely. The market expects that the Fed's September policy meeting will raise interest rates by 5 basis points or 75 basis points.

2) Domestic news

Premier the State Council sent a congratulatory letter to Pujiang Innovation Forum in 222: China will base itself on its own resource endowment, adhere to the principle of establishing first and then breaking, and make overall planning, give full play to the supporting and leading role of scientific and technological innovation, promote energy consumption, supply, technology and system revolution, ensure energy supply, and promote carbon neutrality in peak carbon dioxide emissions in an orderly manner.

3) Industry News

In the first seven months of this year, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size in China reached 4,892.95 billion yuan, down 1.1% year-on-year. In terms of industries, the mining industry continued to support the profit growth of industrial enterprises, and the profits of the automobile industry rebounded rapidly. The data shows that in July, the profit of the automobile manufacturing industry increased by 77.8% year-on-year, making it one of the fastest-growing industries.

II. Daily earnings of external markets

III. Early comments on major varieties

1) Financial

Stock index

Stock index: US stocks fell sharply, and A shares fluctuated and retreated in the last trading day. The turnover of the two cities was 929.19 billion yuan, with a net inflow of capital of 5.15 billion yuan. On August 25, the financing balance decreased by 3.73 billion yuan to 152.99 billion yuan. Due to weak economic data and strengthened policies, the central bank lowered the MLF and OMO interest rates in August. From a technical point of view, the trend of each index is still weak, mainly due to the expected weakening of future economic fundamentals. Since the adjustment range of SSE 5 and CSI 3 indexes has been greater than that of CSI 5 and CSI 1 since July, it is not ruled out that heavyweights may strengthen in stages in the future. On the whole, we believe that the indexes are still dominated by range shocks, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term.

national debt

national debt: it rose slightly, and the yield of 1-year active bonds rose by .32bp to 2.66%. Last week, the central bank's open market completely hedged the due funds, and the short-term Shibor went up, and the funds were converged. After the interest rate cut landed, the funds were no longer loose. Outbreaks continue to recur all over the country, and the the State Council executive meeting deployed 19 successive policies and measures to stabilize the economy, including adding 3 billion yuan of policy development tools and 5 billion yuan of special debts within the limit, so as to strengthen the foundation of economic recovery and development. The chairman of the Federal Reserve said that it will still raise interest rates substantially, and reducing inflation to 2% is still a key goal, and the yield of US bonds has rebounded slightly. At present, the yield of 1-year treasury bonds has been at a historical low level. With the continuous introduction of stable economic policies, LPR has been lowered many times, the financing cost of the real economy has been continuously reduced, and the effect of wide credit will gradually appear. It is expected that there will be limited room for the future price of treasury bonds to continue to rise, and there is adjustment pressure. In operation, it is recommended to wait and see for the time being or try to empty the warehouse.

2) Refining

crude oil

crude oil: The possibility of further interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve will curb oil prices. Powell warned on Friday that Americans will enter a painful period of slow economic growth and possible rising unemployment rate as the Federal Reserve raises interest rates to fight inflation at a high level in 28. This speech told people in his most straightforward language so far the challenges that the US economy will face. Like Saudi Arabia, UAE has become the latest OPEC member to support "cutting oil production". Earlier, Richard Itoua, the rotating chairman of OPEC and Congo's oil minister, said that Saudi Arabia's new production reduction idea "is consistent with our views and goals. However, the premise of OPEC's production reduction will be the return of Iranian production capacity. Short-term oil prices are mainly weak downward.

methanol

methanol: methanol rose by .81% at night. This week, the average start-up load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 71.6%, up 3.17 percentage points from last week. This week, the restart of the China Coal Plant was extended, and the rest did not change much. The domestic CTO/MTO plant started to rebound as a whole. As of August 25th, the start-up load of domestic methanol plant was 62.85%, which was 1.8 percentage points lower than last week and 7.3 percentage points lower than the same period last year. Overall, the methanol inventory in coastal areas was 961,7 tons, down 49,5 tons from last week, with a decrease of 4.9% and a year-on-year increase of .3%. The available supply of methanol in the whole coastal area is estimated to be around 294, tons. It is estimated that from August 26th to September 11th, the volume of imported goods from coastal areas will be 498,3-5, tons.

Asphalt

Asphalt: The main contract of asphalt 2212 continued diving on Friday, and closed at 3,889 yuan per ton at night, with a slight decrease of 2 yuan/ton with an amplitude of .91%. Last week, the National People's Congress decided to adjust the balance of more than 3 billion policy financial bonds and 5 billion special bonds, and the finance continued to exert its strength. Recently, crude oil has fluctuated greatly, but at present, the main pricing logic has returned to domestic fundamentals. From August 19th to August 26th, the average spot price of domestic producers in Shandong province dropped from 4,483 yuan/ton to 4,439 yuan/ton. During the period, the price dropped by .99%, while the price rose by 4.1% month-on-month and 3.6% year-on-year. On the supply side, from the operating rate of the refinery provided by Baichuan, after the profit of the refinery began to rise, the operating rate also increased obviously from the bottom. The latest research predicts that the operating rate of the refinery will increase greatly in early September. On the demand side, the high price of asphalt still suppresses speculative demand, and the market has some differences on the landing speed of securities and bonds. Follow-up observation on whether the recent Russian-Ukrainian conflict continues to escalate and whether there is any incremental policy in infrastructure. In operation, it is recommended to appropriately short 2212 and increase 236 contracts, and remain cautious as a whole.

pulp

pulp: the main contract of pulp rose and fell on Friday night. In July, domestic pulp imports continued to decline, and the short-term supply side still had some support. The newly published quotation of the outer disk of softwood pulp has been lowered, the support of the cost side has weakened, and the space for the downward price of pulp has gradually opened up. The acceptance of high-priced raw materials in domestic downstream is low, and the profit of finished paper remains at a very low level. Under the macro-weakening background, the market demand of pulp is not expected to be too optimistic, but the short-term tight supply pattern has not changed, and the pulp price range fluctuates mainly, ranging from 62 to 67.

rubber

rubber: last week, the trend of rubber fell, the raw material glue was relatively strongly affected by rainfall, futures were weak, and the decline was obvious. The spread between futures and cash contracts. Under the background of global economic recession, overseas demand is expected to be weak, and domestic demand has not yet improved. If the supply side continues to be smooth and the price is not supported by effective fundamentals, it is expected to remain weak.

polyolefin

polyolefin (LL, PP): linear LL, partly raised by 5 for Sinopec, and stable for PetroChina. Coal chemical industry 774 reached the source, and the transaction rebounded. Drawing PP, Sinopec is stable and PetroChina is stable. 785 Tongda source, the transaction is average. On Friday, polyolefin futures continued to rebound. Fundamental Angle Since August, polyolefin supply has contracted, terminal operating rate has started to pick up, and upstream inventory has improved. In recent months, the delivery is approaching, and the rebound of far-month contracts is still subject to macro expectations and fluctuations in spot prices in recent months. However, under the consumption stimulus policy, macro expectations and physical demand have improved, and the current rebound of polyolefin January contract futures is expected to continue.

polyester

polyester: PTA oscillates weakly, while MEG oscillates and rebounds. At the cost end, the price of crude oil in the United States rebounded, mainly fluctuating widely, and the start-up load of downstream polyester plants remained low, and the demand was further weakened. In industry, PTA started to pick up, but there are still many maintenance devices; The reduction of ethylene glycol supply will boost the price, and there may be a restart device later. The downstream polyester started to work steadily, the market consumption demand was still poor, and the production and sales were insufficient. In terms of inventory, PTA continued to go to the warehouse, and MEG port went to the warehouse slightly. On the whole, the downstream consumption is insufficient, paying attention to the change of cost end and polyester demand.

3) black

steel

steel: at the end of August, the impact of overseas interest rate hike rhythm on the October 1th contract will gradually give way to the performance of domestic supply and demand in the prosperous season. The sharp drop in the total amount of new construction during the year restricts the absolute height of thread demand, and the elasticity of thread table demand will be limited during the year. When the supply elasticity is greater than the demand, it is difficult for finished products to get out of the positive feedback of the trend of price and profit increase during the year. However, in the short term, under the time window when profits are compressed and demand is facing seasonal replenishment, it is possible to change from supply-led to demand-led, and prices also have some support in the process. Thread 1 contract rebound drive still exists, but the space may be limited.

iron ore

iron ore: the price of night trading dropped slightly. Fundamentally speaking, the contraction of iron ore supply end is expected to be strong, while steel mills resume production quickly, and the output of hot metal is expected to run at a high level, and the accumulation of imported iron ore ports is expected to be lower than expected. On the face of it, the current valuation is relatively reasonable. The previous price rebound is mainly to repair two points: one is the collapse of the industry's own emotions, and the other is the weakening of macro expectations, and these two negative factors are difficult to be traded again. Compared with the same period last year, the iron ore crash was caused by the macro and fundamental vibration of the disk under the background of high valuation. However, the domestic economic recovery and steady growth are expected to accelerate in the second half of this year, and the market price is expected to show a strong trend.

coal coke

double coke: the price of night plate has dropped. In terms of coke, some steel mills control the arrival of goods and the middle speculative traders leave the market to wait and see, and the delivery rhythm of coke enterprises slows down, and the factory is slightly tired. In terms of coking coal, coking steel enterprises maintained on-demand procurement, new orders for coal mines decreased, and the transaction prices of some coals declined. On the demand side, the current scrap consumption is running at a low level. Driven by steady growth, it is estimated that the average output of hot metal in the second half of the year is expected to exceed 2.2 million tons. On the whole, the market is not pessimistic about the demand in the second half of the year, and it is expected that the market price will show a strong trend.

Mn-Si

Mn-Si: Last Friday, the contract of Mn-Si 1 fluctuated strongly, with the final income of 7424 yuan/ton. The market price in Jiangsu increased slightly by 3 yuan/ton to 745 yuan/ton. The price of manganese ore continues to decline. At present, the spot cost of the northern production area has fallen to around 73 yuan/ton, and the industry profit is relatively meager. The southern producing areas are still in a pattern of upside-down profits. Recently, some manufacturers have resumed production or planned to resume production, and the daily production level of manganese and silicon has rebounded. Terminal demand is still weak, there is little room for profit expansion of steel mills, it is difficult for crude steel output to increase significantly, and the increase of downstream demand of manganese and silicon may be limited. Recently, the market inventory has been digested slowly, and there is still pressure above the price of manganese and silicon.

ferrosilicon

ferrosilicon: Last Friday, the contract of ferrosilicon 1 rose strongly, and the final income was 8258 yuan/ton. Tianjin 72 ferrosilicon price is raised by 1 yuan/ton to 81 yuan/ton. Affected by the epidemic in Shaanxi, the price of charcoal rose by 1 yuan/ton, and the average production cost of ferrosilicon rose to about 765 yuan/ton. The profit of the industry is still acceptable, the manufacturers' willingness to resume production has increased, and the daily level of ferrosilicon has rebounded slightly. However, the terminal demand is still weak, there is little room for profit expansion of steel mills, and it is difficult for the demand for ferrosilicon to increase greatly. On the whole, the process of manufacturers' resumption of production will weaken the degree of destocking, and the height of price rebound still needs to be treated with caution.

thermal coal

thermal coal: a small amount of thermal coal 9 contract was sold overnight and closed at 81 yuan/ton. The 55K coal price of Qin Port is raised by 1 yuan/ton to 1,215 yuan/ton. Affected by the epidemic situation in the producing areas, coal production and shipment have declined recently, and the inventory of Beigang has continued to fall, which has supported coal prices. As the temperature drops, the daily consumption of power plants drops at a high level. However, at present, the hydropower output is insufficient, the substitution effect on thermal power is limited, and the demand for replenishment of power plants still exists when the absolute daily consumption is high. In the medium and long term, coal production and sales are expected to return to a high level under the policy of ensuring supply. The demand for chemical coal has limited support for the price, while the power plant has sufficient coal storage, and the upward pressure on coal prices in the market outlook may gradually increase.

4) metals

precious metals

precious metals: gold and silver continued to weaken on Friday. Powell continued to maintain hawkish remarks at the annual meeting of the central bank, saying that the federal funds rate will be kept at the terminal interest rate for a long time, which will suppress the expectation of future interest rate cuts. Recently, under the intensive hawkish speech of Fed officials, the market revised the original expectation of cutting interest rates next year. On the interest rate side, the implied expectation of CME federal funds rate to the policy interest rate at the end of the year and next year leveled off again. With the hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve and the widening spread between China and the United States, the US dollar continues to appreciate. Although inflation peaked in July, it is still at a high level. In the future, gold and silver need to see more evidence of inflation control. Gold and silver are dominated by short-term shocks, and the future is waiting for the guidance of employment and inflation data in August.

copper

copper: the price of copper dropped slightly at the weekend night, which was affected by the inflation control of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell. Powell made it clear on Friday that controlling inflation will be at the expense of economic slowdown. In the previous period, the inventory increased slightly to less than 4, tons, and LME inventory decreased slightly. After the early copper price dropped sharply, the global inventory not only did not increase, but declined, indicating that the demand in production and downstream was good. The Federal Reserve is still in the cycle of raising interest rates, and the global market is in the stage balance period of macro-negative and industrial bullish. On the one hand, the market is still worried that the Fed's future interest rate hike will lead to the slowdown of the US economy and the uncertainty of the future interest rate hike. On the other hand, there is a slight gap between supply and demand in the industrial chain. In the medium term, it may fluctuate widely and strongly, and it will still be supported by new energy demand in the long term. It is suggested to pay attention to the domestic epidemic situation, spot demand, downstream construction and inventory.