About 90% of China life insurance products are investment-oriented, and its policy cost is determined by the opportunity cost faced by potential customers. The deposit interest rate and the yield of deposit substitute products are the key factors that affect the financial consumption orientation of potential customers. The past development of life insurance industry can fully illustrate this point.
In the 10 years from 200 1 to 20 10,
A very important reason for the rapid development of life insurance industry is that under the interest rate control, life insurance companies have introduced dividend insurance and universal insurance with a yield higher than the deposit interest rate in the same period, which has played a role in diverting savings.
However, after 20 10, banks launched a large number of high-yield wealth management products through disguised marketization of deposit interest rates, and the advantages of life insurance products became inconspicuous. Life insurance companies not only encounter greater difficulties in competing with banks for savings resources, but also
But also face the pressure of banks, brokers, funds and other financial institutions to divert premiums.
The main competitor of life insurance companies is banks, and the impact of interest rate cuts on insurance liabilities mainly depends on the changes in bank deposit interest rates and the yield of bank wealth management products.
Although the deposit interest rate was lowered by 0.25 percentage point, it also raised the upper limit of the floating range of deposit interest rate. The People's Bank of China tried to promote the marketization of deposit interest rate by cutting interest rates and gradually liberalizing the upper limit of deposit interest rate.
Judging from the actual changes of bank deposit interest rate after the interest rate cut on 20 1 14 years122 October, although the interest rate ceiling was liberalized, only a few small and medium-sized banks rose to 1.2 times, led by Huaxia, Ping An, China Everbright and Beijing.
After floating to 1.2 times, it was lowered to 1. 15 times, and the big banks basically did not follow up. The downward adjustment of deposit interest rate this time and the rise of some small and medium-sized banks due to the pressure of storage absorption (at present, the annual deposit interest rates of Jiangsu Bank and Minsheng Bank have risen to 0.3 times of the benchmark interest rate of 65438+) will offset each other. After the interest rate cut, the overall deposit interest rate of the banking industry will drop slightly, but the extent is limited.
Bank wealth management products are a disguised manifestation of the marketization of deposit interest rates. Due to the high cost of capital in the overall market, the yield of bank wealth management products has not changed much since the last interest rate cut and the subsequent RRR cut. incision
By February 22nd, the expected annual yield of 1 year bank wealth management products is 5.4 1%. It is expected that this interest rate cut may not bring about a sharp drop in the yield level of bank wealth management products.
All in all, Ben
The second interest rate cut has limited impact on releasing underwriting pressure. 20 14, the industry's return on investment is 6.3%, the highest level in five years. Life insurance companies give universal insurance customers a higher settlement interest rate and pay dividends to dividend insurance customers, which makes
Life insurance products are more attractive in the competition with bank deposits and bank wealth management products. It is estimated that the return on investment in 20 14 years will support the life insurance industry to maintain a high growth trend.
The impact of this interest rate cut on investment is positive in the short term and negative in the medium and long term.
Cutting interest rates is a double-edged sword for investment. Interest rate cuts have different effects on existing assets and new assets, fixed interest rate assets and floating interest rate assets. After the interest rate cut, the price of stock assets will rise. For the new premiums retained in that year,
The return on assets and reinvested assets will go down; The price of fixed-rate assets will rise, while the yield of floating-rate assets will fall. At present, about 1% of insurance stock assets are trading financial assets, and 20% are available.
When selling financial assets, the interest rate goes down and the asset price goes up, which is conducive to the rebound of net assets. However, about 20% of new assets are added every year, and about 65,438+00% of assets are reinvested at maturity, and the reconfigured assets are facing a downward rate of return.
Stress.
As far as the impact of this interest rate cut on large-scale assets is concerned, from the perspective of bond assets, this interest rate cut once again confirms the loose direction of monetary policy. According to the current operation of the real economy, it is not ruled out that there will be many interest rate cuts and RRR cuts during the year. The bullish trend of the bond market has not been broken.
From the perspective of stock assets, in the interest rate reduction cycle, the downward trend of risk-free interest rate will generally improve the equity valuation, and the relaxation of monetary policy and abundant market liquidity will often form favorable support for the stock market. As far as this interest rate cut is concerned, because it has been expected by the market and the market has accumulated a large increase in the early stage, the interest rate cut is far less favorable to the stock market than last time.
From the perspective of non-standard assets, most of them are long-term debt investment plans, and the yield is generally linked to the benchmark interest rate of 5-year loans. Since 20 14, 1 1 interest rate cuts, financial institutions have generally benefited from loans.
The interest rate dropped from 7.33% in the third quarter of 20 14 to 6.92% in the fourth quarter, and the actual loan interest rate dropped by 0.4 percentage point, which was basically equivalent to the benchmark interest rate of one-year loans of financial institutions. This decline is expected.
Interest will reduce the planned yield of creditor's rights by about 0.25 percentage points.
To sum up, generally speaking, at the beginning of the interest rate reduction cycle, because the new investment assets with fixed income are less than the existing investment assets,
The interest rate cut will bring about a higher spread rate of return on existing assets than that of coupon rate with new assets, so it is more likely that the rate of return on insurance investment will rise. However, in the medium and long term, the stock of investment assets is gradually decreasing, accompanied by market gains.
The speed of decline, the decline in the rate of return on new investment assets will have a downward effect on the overall rate of return on investment, and the rate of return on insurance investment tends to decline.
This interest rate cut has a positive impact on the capital side.
The interest rate cut will help to improve the fair value of the existing bond investment assets of insurance companies, increase the capital reserve in the balance sheet, increase the net assets and improve the solvency of insurance companies. At the same time, it gives the insurance company more flexible space to adjust the profit of 20 15.
Further reading: How to buy insurance, which is good, and teach you how to avoid these "pits" of insurance.