1, US dollar interest rate hike expectation
Although the Federal Reserve recently announced that it would raise interest rates by 75 basis points at one time in 1 1 years, keeping the federal interest rate between 1.5 and 1.75%, the inflation rate in the United States remains high. According to the latest data, the inflation rate in the United States reached 8.6% in that month, while the expected target of the Federal Reserve was 2%.
In order to curb the overheating of the economy, the market thinks that the Fed is likely to keep raising interest rates. Some experts predict that the US federal interest rate may reach around 4%. According to this forecast, there is still a lot of room for the US dollar to raise interest rates, which has a great impact on the international futures market and suppressed the rise of crude oil prices.
2. The situation of the war between Russia and Ukraine is unknown.
After the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian war, the market was initially expected to end in about three months, but it has lasted for nearly half a year and there is still no sign of ending.
With the intensification of geopolitical conflicts, the sanctions imposed by the United States and the European Union on Russia have spread from energy to products such as gold. Many countries in the European Union refused to buy Russian oil and natural gas, while the United States secretly bought cheap crude oil from www.cszy.net, Russia, which also put pressure on crude oil producers such as the Middle East and released domestic crude oil reserves, which had a certain impact on the international crude oil market supply.
The United States uses the influence of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict to control the price of crude oil, thus maintaining the control of the dollar over oil, and to some extent protecting the hegemonic position of the dollar, and crude oil will also fluctuate with the trend of the dollar.
3. The COVID-19 epidemic has affected the global economic recovery.
Although all countries in the world are trying to get rid of the impact of the COVID-19 epidemic, so far, COVID-19 is still the biggest obstacle to the global economic recovery, and the constant variation of the virus has brought a shadow to the global economic recovery. A new variety of Omicron strain BA.2.75 was found in 8 countries including India, Japan and the United States. This ever-changing virus heats up the market risk aversion and affects the global economic recovery.
According to statistics, the global economic losses caused by COVID-19 epidemic and COVID-19 epidemic are 5.8 trillion to 8.8 trillion US dollars, equivalent to 6.4% to 9.7% of global GDP. The COVID-19 epidemic has cost the world 255 million jobs and 20.5 million years of life expectancy.
The COVID-19 epidemic has affected the global economic recovery and posed a long-term constraint on oil demand. When other factors are superimposed, it will have a negative impact on crude oil prices.
In short, at first, the rise in oil prices was closely related to the global economic stimulus plan. In the case of weak economic recovery, it is difficult to maintain economic prosperity simply by printing money. The US dollar interest rate hike, combined with the COVID-19 epidemic and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, made the already high oil price lose its support, and it is reasonable for the international crude oil price to fall below the 100 mark.