Since the beginning of this year, China's economy has maintained a stable operation, and the national economy has continued to develop in the expected direction of macro-control. Mainly manifested in: investment, consumption and exports have grown steadily, and domestic demand support has increased; Industry is growing steadily, and the agricultural production situation is improving; Fiscal revenue and expenditure grew rapidly, money and credit were adjusted steadily, and the main driving force of economic growth gradually changed from policy stimulus to independent growth in an orderly manner; Employment and residents' income continued to increase, and people's lives further improved. These circumstances show that the central government's decision-making and deployment of economic work this year is correct and effective. We should correctly understand the achievements, see the favorable conditions and positive factors for development, and further strengthen our confidence in doing a good job in economic work.
At present, the domestic and international environment is still extremely complicated, and there are still many unstable and uncertain factors. From an international perspective, the economies of major economies have resumed growth, but the unemployment rate is still at a high level, the fiscal deficits of some countries are high, and the hidden dangers of sovereign debt crisis in some countries have not been eliminated; The exchange rate fluctuations of major currencies have intensified, and the prices of bulk commodities such as grain and oil in the international market have been rising; Inflationary pressure is spreading from emerging economies to developed economies. The world economy has not yet embarked on the track of normal growth, and now there are two variables. First, the political turmoil in West Asia and North Africa keeps pushing up energy prices, which has a dual impact on world economic growth and inflation. Second, Japan's earthquake, tsunami and nuclear radiation disasters will seriously affect Japan's economy in the short term and will inevitably affect the process of world economic recovery. From the domestic point of view, although there are many favorable conditions for development and high enthusiasm for development in all aspects, there are also many challenges. Except for some long-standing institutional and structural problems, some prominent contradictions in economic operation have not been alleviated obviously, mainly because prices have risen rapidly, inflation expectations have increased, real estate market transaction volume has shrunk, housing prices in most cities are still rising, and macro-control is still facing greater pressure. We should keep a clear head, enhance our sense of urgency, fully estimate the complexity and severity of the situation we are facing, observe calmly and calmly, be prepared to deal with all kinds of difficulties and risks, persist in handling the relationship between maintaining stable and rapid economic development, adjusting economic structure and managing inflation expectations, further consolidate the good momentum of economic development, ensure the realization of this year's economic and social development goals, and make a good start for the Twelfth Five-Year Plan.
Second, earnestly implement a prudent monetary policy.
Implementing a prudent monetary policy is an important decision made by the central government after comprehensively analyzing the situation at home and abroad, and it is the direction that macro-control must adhere to. The key is to grasp the strength and rhythm of regulation. Since the beginning of this year, we have raised the deposit reserve ratio three times and the benchmark interest rate for deposits and loans twice. At present, the growth rate of broad money is approaching the control target, but the results need to be consolidated and strengthened, and the overall environment for implementing a prudent monetary policy has not changed. First, the inter-bank market interest rate remains low. Compared with the normal level and reasonable demand, liquidity in the banking system is still abundant. Second, the surplus of settlement and sale of foreign exchange is at a high level, which leads to a large number of passive delivery of base money. In the second quarter, the central bank bills and repurchase maturities are large, and there is still hedging liquidity pressure. Third, imported inflationary pressures and inflation expectations remain strong. Therefore, it is necessary to maintain the continuity and stability of macroeconomic policies and improve their pertinence, flexibility and effectiveness. First, handle the relationship between controlling the total amount of money and improving the structure. Manage the general gate of liquidity, maintain a reasonable scale and rhythm of social financing, comprehensively use various price and quantity tools such as open market operation, deposit reserve ratio and interest rate, further improve the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism, enhance the flexibility of RMB exchange rate, and eliminate the monetary conditions of inflation. At the same time, efforts should be made to optimize the structure, guide commercial banks to increase credit support for key areas and weak links, especially small and medium-sized enterprises, rationally adjust the ratio of medium-and long-term loans to short-term loans, and prevent short-term loans from being used for a long time, crowding out liquidity and causing tight working capital for enterprises. It is necessary to increase the proportion of direct financing, give full play to the role of financing tools such as stocks, bonds and industrial funds, strengthen support for the real economy, and better meet diversified investment and financing needs. Second, properly handle the relationship between promoting economic growth and curbing inflation. At present, the growth rate and employment are at a reasonable level, and stabilizing prices and managing inflation expectations are the key and first. Of course, it is necessary to fully estimate the lag effect of monetary policy, improve the forward-looking policy, and avoid the excessive negative impact of policy superposition on the real economy in the next stage.
Third, do everything possible to keep the overall price level basically stable.
This is the primary and most urgent task of macro-control this year. Since last year, the pressure of inflation expectation in China has been increasing, especially after the fourth quarter, prices have risen rapidly, which has become the most prominent contradiction in economic operation. The central government has always attached great importance to inflation. As early as the fourth quarter of 2009, we proposed that correctly handling the relationship between maintaining stable and rapid economic development, adjusting economic structure and managing inflation expectations is the core of macroeconomic regulation and control. Last year, we adopted a series of targeted policies and measures in time to control the annual increase in consumer prices at 3.3%. On the basis of rapid economic growth, it is not easy to keep the overall price level basically stable. Judging from the situation in the first quarter, the pressure of rising prices is still relatively large.
The reasons for this round of price increase are complicated, and many factors that promote price increase are still intensifying. We must not take it lightly. First, the imported inflationary pressure is still increasing. Affected by abundant global liquidity, the weakening of the US dollar, the turmoil in West Asia and North Africa, and the earthquake disaster in Japan, international commodity prices have continued to rise. At present, the international commodity futures price index has exceeded the level before the international financial crisis. Crude oil futures prices climbed to the highest point in two and a half years. Especially in the context of loose global liquidity and active speculation, the financialization characteristics of bulk commodities are enhanced, and the prices are not completely determined by the relationship between supply and demand. Affected by the sharp rise in international commodity prices, the prices of energy and raw materials in China are rising, and the pressure of transmission to the downstream is increasing. Second, the upward pressure on structural prices such as food and housing is still relatively high. Third, the increase in factor costs has increased. The continuous increase of labor wages and interest rates this year has increased the cost of enterprises, and the impact on the overall price level cannot be underestimated.
At present, China's overall price level is still in a controllable range. Since the beginning of this year, the price increase has been influenced more by the hikes than by the new price increase factors, which are mainly food and housing prices, and are generally structural increases. China's grain production has increased for seven consecutive years, and its stock is abundant. At present, wheat seedlings are growing well, and summer grain is expected to get a bumper harvest. The overall supply of major industrial products exceeds demand, and the import growth rate is relatively fast. There are many advantages in stabilizing prices. We should strengthen our confidence in doing a good job in price work.
The State Council has made comprehensive arrangements to stabilize the overall price level from the aspects of controlling currency, developing production, ensuring supply, invigorating circulation and strengthening supervision. All localities and relevant departments must implement it to the letter. It is necessary to pay close attention to the influence of changes in the domestic and international economic environment on the price trend, find out the abnormal factors that lead to price fluctuations in time, take various measures to control the price increase within an affordable range, and resolutely prevent the price from rising too fast. At present, the most important thing is to do a good job in three aspects: First, do a good job in agriculture and grain production without relaxation. We should do our best to do a good job in spring agricultural production, strengthen field management in the middle and late stages of wheat, strengthen scientific guidance and services for spring sowing, guide farmers to grow enough crops for spring sowing, focus on early rice and other food production, do a good job in disaster prevention and mitigation and pest control, strengthen various guarantees for spring agricultural production, do a good job in the transportation and supply of production and agricultural means of production, ensure adequate supply of materials for spring ploughing and preparation, and strive to win a bumper harvest of grain and oil in summer. We will comprehensively strengthen the construction of agricultural infrastructure such as farmland water conservancy and enhance the ability of agriculture to resist natural disasters. Implement the central government's policies and measures to support agricultural production as soon as possible. Continue to implement the "rice bag" governor responsibility system and the "vegetable basket" mayor responsibility system, strengthen the construction of agricultural products circulation system, and ensure market supply. Second, continue to implement a prudent monetary policy and not provide monetary conditions for price increases. The third is to comprehensively strengthen price regulation and supervision. It is necessary to intensify price supervision and inspection, seriously investigate and deal with malicious speculation, collusion in price increases, price gouging and other illegal acts, and maintain normal market order. We should pay attention to the role of market mechanism, reduce circulation costs, promote a virtuous circle of production, supply and marketing, and avoid inhibiting production and supply. At the same time, strengthen the guidance of public opinion and strive to stabilize market expectations. [! - empirenews.page - ]
Fourth, consolidate and expand the effectiveness of real estate market regulation.
At present, all walks of life are very concerned about the trend of real estate prices. This is a major issue involving the vital interests of the people, healthy economic development and social harmony and stability. The central government's goal of strengthening real estate regulation and control is clear and its determination is firm. It should be noted that with the deepening of real estate regulation and control policies, the contradiction between supply and demand in the market has eased, unreasonable demand has been restrained to some extent, and the market has shown some signs of cooling down. This shows that the central government's policy on real estate regulation is correct. It should also be noted that the current market is still at a stalemate stage, and there is still a big gap between the price of ordinary commodity housing and the regulatory targets and the expectations of the masses. In particular, the situation that housing prices in some cities are too high and rising too fast has not fundamentally changed. In some places, the measures to implement the central control policies are not strong enough, and the overall control effect needs to be consolidated and strengthened.
The regulation of the real estate market should not only curb unreasonable demand, but also strive to increase market supply. On the one hand, we must earnestly do a good job in the construction of affordable housing. This year, the country will start to build 65.438+000 million sets of affordable housing, and the central government will spend 654.38+003 billion yuan for this purpose, but it is not enough to rely solely on the central government. Governments at all levels should earnestly shoulder their responsibilities, raise funds through multiple channels, effectively increase investment, and give priority to ensuring land supply. It is necessary to establish a management system for the construction, distribution, operation and withdrawal of affordable housing, avoid rent-seeking and black-box operation, and promote the long-term healthy operation of this system. On the other hand, efforts should be made to increase the supply of ordinary commodity housing, speed up the supply of land for ordinary commodity housing, urge developers to ensure the progress of housing construction in strict accordance with state regulations, launch all houses on schedule and clearly price them for sale, and severely investigate and punish those who violate the rules. The goal of real estate market regulation is to keep the total market supply and demand basically balanced, the structure and price basically reasonable, and always strictly control the demand for speculative investment housing. It is necessary to achieve a reasonable connection between long-term goals and short-term goals, taking into account both affordable housing and commercial housing, and avoiding paying attention to one thing and losing another.
The key to real estate regulation is implementation. At present, the market is waiting to see. If the policy can't really be implemented and become a mere formality, it will be difficult to reasonably guide the market expectations, it will be difficult to guide the developers to set reasonable prices, and it will be difficult for ordinary people to establish confidence. Our supervision will not meet the requirements, and eventually, the government will lose the trust of the people. Governments at all levels should faithfully implement the policies determined by the central authorities, strengthen their responsibilities, and ensure that the control measures are implemented and achieved practical results. It is necessary to decompose and implement the construction tasks of affordable housing and the arrangements for the start and completion of the project, so as to facilitate the supervision of the masses. Relevant departments should effectively strengthen supervision. We must adhere to the direction of regulation and control and not relax the intensity of regulation and control.
Verb (abbreviation of verb) promotes the steady and healthy development of foreign trade.
Since the beginning of this year, import and export trade has maintained a rapid growth momentum, indicating that China's foreign trade has overcome the adverse effects of the international financial crisis and entered a normal development track. An important feature of foreign trade in the first quarter was that imports grew faster than exports, with a deficit of $6543.8+$200 million. The reason for this situation is that the import price of bulk commodities has soared, resulting in a substantial increase in imports. Of course, the decline in surplus caused by this deterioration in terms of trade is not what we hope.
Judging from the current situation, with the sustained recovery of the world economy, the overall external market tends to improve, and corporate orders have increased. However, the import and export situation is still complicated, and there are still many uncertain factors affecting export growth. In particular, the continuous sharp rise in raw material prices and labor wages will crowd out the profits of foreign trade enterprises to varying degrees, and small and medium-sized enterprises will face greater cost pressure.
In the case of a balanced import and export, our work should focus on maintaining the steady growth of foreign trade and optimizing the import and export structure. On the one hand, it is necessary to maintain the basic stability of foreign trade policies, continue to make good use of effective policies such as export credit insurance, export tax rebate and export credit, give full play to the driving role of "bringing in" and "going out" in expanding exports, pay special attention to improving the financing conditions of small and medium-sized foreign trade enterprises, and create a good environment for the stable development of foreign trade. On the other hand, it is necessary to accelerate the transformation of foreign trade development mode, adhere to science and technology to promote trade, win quality and diversify the market, actively promote the transformation and upgrading of processing trade, encourage enterprises to develop R&D design, independent brands and overseas marketing channels, strive for new advantages in participating in international competition and cooperation, and comprehensively improve the quality and efficiency of foreign trade. "Going out" is a long-term strategy, and we should continue to actively promote it, while paying attention to preventing risks and improving efficiency.
Sixth, actively promote the transformation of economic development mode.
The Twelfth Five-Year Plan period is a crucial period for China to accelerate the transformation of economic development mode. This year is the first year. In accordance with the central government's decision-making arrangements, we should conscientiously do some important things that lay the foundation and benefit the long-term. First, we must pay close attention to energy conservation and emission reduction. The "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" has clear objectives, and the objectives and tasks should be broken down. The shortage of energy resources in China is a long-term challenge. It is necessary to fight a tough battle and a protracted war. At present, there are repeated signs of energy conservation and emission reduction, which must not be ignored and allowed to drift. Relevant localities and departments should attach great importance to it and adopt more effective policies and measures to solve it as soon as possible. Second, we must accelerate structural adjustment and industrial transformation and upgrading. This is the strategic focus of improving the quality, efficiency and international competitiveness of economic growth. It is necessary to strengthen the technological transformation of enterprises, accelerate the elimination of backward production capacity, promote mergers and acquisitions of enterprises, improve industrial concentration, and comprehensively improve the level and competitiveness of manufacturing. Pay close attention to the formulation of standards, refine specific support policies, and accelerate the cultivation and development of strategic emerging industries. Effectively improve policies and measures, promote the great development of the service industry, and further improve the proportion and level of the service industry. Third, we must promptly establish a long-term mechanism to expand consumption. With the expiration of some policies to stimulate consumption, the nominal and real consumption growth rate slowed down in the first quarter of this year, but it still maintained a high growth rate. The key is to establish a long-term mechanism to expand consumption, deepen the reform of income distribution system and fiscal and taxation system, improve the social security system, ensure the improvement of people's livelihood, improve the consumption environment, and fundamentally enhance residents' consumption ability and willingness. Fourth, we should correctly handle the relationship between domestic demand and external demand. Adhere to the strategic policy of expanding domestic demand, strive to expand new space for domestic demand growth, foster new impetus for domestic demand growth, and promote the balanced economic development of China. We will continue to make good use of China's comparative advantages in international trade, accelerate our own development through the international market, promote domestic technological progress, enhance the competitiveness of industries and products, and narrow the gap with developed economies.