In the face of more and more overdue trust projects, doubts about the risk control of trust companies are constantly emerging. Does this mean that real estate trust, as one of the main businesses of trust, will never return? What is the meaning behind strict supervision?
In the eyes of many people in the industry, the recent frequent redemption crisis of real estate trusts is more related to the market environment and policy fundamentals. The real estate industry has experienced several rounds of policy regulation, and most trust companies can basically grasp the risk control conditions. As a supplementary means of financing, the strictly regulated real estate trust is more in line with stabilizing housing prices and expectations, and appropriately controlling the growth pace. In addition, as the trust enters the critical period of transformation, the stock real estate business is also expected to become one of the important foothold.
Real estate trust dilemma
Real estate trust is the main business of trust companies, and clear guarantee and mortgage have become their favorite key advantages.
In the case that the housing sales market continues to cool down, whether the collateral continues to be sufficient and whether the disposal time is too long has also become the "heart disease" of most investors who have experienced overdue real estate trust projects. Some investors have clearly expressed such concerns to reporters.
According to industry insiders, at present, housing enterprises are generally facing a situation of tightening financing. Some housing enterprises are short of cash flow, unable to repay their previous trust loans, and some are even on the verge of bankruptcy. In addition, the absolute scale of trust maturity this year is still at the highest level in history, and the distribution of maturity shows the law of low before and high after, which may accelerate the risk exposure in the real estate sector.
Wang Hua (pseudonym), a staff member of a third-party organization, told reporters that real estate developers generally use their own projects as collateral for financing, but in the case of default, it often takes some time to dispose of and realize the collateral, and may also face discounts.
"There are more and more projects in which trusts are in the disposal period and postponed." Wang Hua told reporters with emotion that in many cases, a company defaulted with more than a dozen institutions, including many trust companies.
Yan Yuejin, research director of the think tank center of Yiju Research Institute, said in an interview with the reporter of International Finance News that most of the risks of real estate trust projects are related to the housing sales market. If the sales market is good, the problem is generally easy to solve; On the contrary, if the market continues to cool down, it will often lead to more problems.
"Especially for projects linked to business and office, if the project is not completed and the rental return rate is low, the financier can't get some supplementary funds, which will have an impact on the project payment, so it is necessary to be alert to related risks." Yan Yuejin added.
So, how to resolve the risk projects related to real estate trust?
Li Hua (pseudonym), an employee of a trust company, said in an interview that from the perspective of a trust company, in most cases, there is no question of whether someone will take over the mortgage loan of overdue real estate trust projects, and the key lies in the price. At the stage of strict supervision, the market generally lacks liquidity, assets are difficult to sell, and the probability of discount is high.
"For trust companies, once the discount is strong, they will face problems that cannot be cleaned up." Li Hua added.
However, Li Hua also told reporters that from the perspective of ordinary fixed-income products, trust can basically be understood as a product that can be redeemed or has potential redemption expectations. "Even if some projects are delayed for a long time, it does not mean that investors will suffer if they are not disposed of in the end. Maybe the problem will be solved slowly in the next few years. "
"Generally speaking, the industry risk exposure is not very large." Li Hua further stated that the trust has always performed the duties of manager regardless of the project situation.
Various means of risk control
From the process of communicating with investors, the reporter noticed that in the face of more and more overdue trust projects, doubts about the risk control of trust companies are constantly emerging.
In fact, many people in the trust industry told reporters that the recent frequent redemption crisis is more related to the market environment and policy fundamentals.
Liao, an analyst of Lejin Functional Trust, said in an interview that the exposure of trust project risks has a great relationship with the whole economic environment. In essence, trust or the whole financial industry belongs to the risk management industry.
"Finance has to deal with all walks of life, so risks will also be concentrated in the financial industry." Liao further told reporters that in this case, it is particularly important to manage, control and resolve risks.
"Even in the same business, different financial institutions will have their own risk control standards." Liao further told reporters that from the perspective of the entire asset management industry, trust can basically be regarded as the field with the highest degree of perfection and maturity in relevant procedures.
"The complexity of counterparties requires the trust to have a variety of risk control measures. Generally speaking, in terms of transaction structure, some system designs are relatively innovative. " Liao added.
Li Hua told reporters that from the perspective of real estate trust business, the current risk control measures mainly include list system, pledge, fund supervision and post-investment management. "Collateral is the main factor of tendency, but it is not the decisive factor. Not all collateral qualifications are good, but it is still necessary to combine the levels of various risk control logics, and the general risk grasp determines the weight of collateral. "
"Overall, after the rapid development of the real estate industry, housing enterprises have entered the stage of accelerated differentiation from staking. The understanding of the industry and the choice of partners have become one of the core links in the risk control of trust companies' real estate business. " Li Hua told reporters.
In addition, compared with previous rounds of regulation, this round of policy regulation has some differences.
Liao told reporters that from the previous rounds of regulation, the real estate industry as a whole is still rising sharply, so the realization time of related pledges may not be long, and the price is relatively considerable. However, under the background of strict regulation and expected real estate tax collection, the upward trend of the whole industry is not particularly obvious. In addition, combined with the multiple policy influences such as the gradual withdrawal of shed reform policy, third-and fourth-tier cities will also be significantly affected. "How to deal with the projects that have been invested in the early stage of the trust is actually more critical."
"The real estate industry has experienced several rounds of policy regulation. Most trust companies can basically grasp the risk control conditions, and the logic of doing business has often gone through many rounds of argumentation. " Liao stressed.
Significantly reduced in scale
In the second half of the year, the scale of real estate trust has shrunk. According to the data of Beneficiary Trust Network, the scale of collective trust in June was 10675 1 billion yuan, which was about 4 1% lower than that in the same period last year. Among them, 265.438+38.3 billion yuan was invested in real estate, a sharp drop of nearly 68% compared with 66.049 billion yuan in the same period last year.
In fact, since the second half of 20 19, the scale of trust issuance in the real estate sector has shown an obvious downward trend.
Specifically, the data of usufructuary trust shows that among the trusts invested in the real estate sector issued from 2065438+200910-June, the monthly scale in five months was above 80 billion yuan, and even exceeded 100 billion yuan in June; July-165438+ 10, the monthly scale is below 80 billion yuan.
At the same time, china trustee association data show that by the end of the third quarter of 20 19, the balance of trust funds invested in real estate was 2.78 trillion yuan, a decrease of14,806.7 billion yuan from the second quarter and a decrease of 5.05% from the previous quarter. This is the first time since the fourth quarter of 20 15 that there has been a negative growth in new scale.
Li Hua told reporters that the real estate trust was hot in the first half of this year, but it faced strict supervision in the second half of this year, which was in stark contrast.
In May, the China Banking Regulatory Commission issued the Notice on Consolidating the Achievements of Combating Chaos and Promoting Compliance Construction (hereinafter referred to as the Notice).
According to the requirements of the Notice, it is forbidden to provide financing directly to real estate development projects with incomplete "four certificates", unqualified qualifications of developers or their controlling shareholders, and insufficient capital, or provide financing in disguised form through "equity investment+shareholder loans", "equity investment+subscription of bad debts", accounts receivable, and income rights of specific assets; Provide financing for real estate enterprises to pay the land transfer price directly or in disguised form, and provide working capital loans for real estate enterprises directly or in disguised form.
Subsequently, under the background of "living without speculation", real estate trust experienced "relay" regulation.
In July, the person in charge of the relevant departments of the China Banking Regulatory Commission said that in order to strengthen the risk prevention and control in the field of real estate trust, the China Banking Regulatory Commission issued an interview warning to some trust companies whose real estate trust business has grown too fast and increased too much recently, requiring these trust companies to control their business growth and improve their risk management and control level. Then, the news of balance control of trust company's real estate trust business came out.
At the same time, according to media reports, the regulatory authorities have unified the issuance standards of real estate trust business, and the second-level qualification of real estate trust business will not be able to penetrate the two floors, which means that Sun Company with second-level qualification will not be able to carry out trust business loans.
Supervision continues to escalate. In August, the CBRC issued the Notice of the Trust Department of China Banking Regulatory Commission on Further Improving Trust Supervision in the Second Half of the Year (Trust Letter [2065438+09] No.64) (hereinafter referred to as "Document No.64") to the trust supervision offices of all banking regulatory bureaus, which conveyed the supervision priorities of the trust industry in the second half of the year.
In accordance with the requirements of Circular No.64, we will monitor the changes of real estate trust business on a monthly basis, and take timely measures such as regulatory interviews, on-site inspections, suspension of some or all businesses, and revocation of senior management qualifications, so as to resolutely curb the momentum of excessive growth and excessive accumulation of risks in real estate trusts.
Strict supervision has far-reaching significance.
Many trust practitioners told reporters that in fact, the supervision of real estate trusts is under a relatively large logical and thinking framework. So, what is the meaning of strict supervision?
Yuan Jiwei, a senior trust researcher, told reporters that real estate trusts are strictly regulated, but they are not completely prohibited. More importantly, in the case of excessive growth in the early stage, stabilize housing prices, stabilize expectations, and appropriately control the pace of growth. "After all, the real estate industry has a great influence on national economic growth and residents' wealth".
"Avoiding over-investment in one area is also one of the reasons, and there is a relatively high concentration risk." Yuan Jiwei further stated.
Liao told reporters that in 20 19, the regulation of real estate trusts was stronger than in previous years. In fact, such a policy is not only aimed at the trust field. In the whole real estate industry, trust can only be said to be a supplementary means of financing. "There is a reason to emphasize trust alone. Judging from the past situation, if banks tighten the financing of the real estate industry, if the trust is released again, the effectiveness of the policy will be weakened to some extent. "
Wang Cheng (pseudonym), a medium-sized trust practitioner, told reporters that the strictness of supervision can be said to be "unprecedented", which is also closely related to the current macroeconomic and financial market environment. In the risk-prone stage, it is necessary to carry out strict supervision, which is also conducive to the long-term stable development of the industry.
"Although in the short term, supervision will bring some pressure on the operating performance of trust companies, in the long run, strict supervision is necessary for the trust industry, the real estate industry and even the national macro-economy." Li Qi added.
Liao also told reporters that stricter supervision is of great significance to the development of the real estate industry itself and the stability of the financial system.
Specifically, if too many resources are invested in the real estate field, it will definitely squeeze the investment of other departments and hinder the long-term development of the real estate industry. According to the characteristics of the industry, the real estate is likely to develop for a long time on the basis of good development of other industries, otherwise it will be unstable and have an impact on the financial system.
Some analysts believe that in the long run, the real estate industry is still a field with room for development, but it has passed the period of rapid development and entered a relatively mature stage. The follow-up stock market will generate new business opportunities, and eventually the overall rate of return of the real estate industry will tend to be flat, but according to the characteristics of the industry, it will still be slightly higher than the rate of return of traditional industries.
In fact, many people in the trust industry told reporters that from the perspective of the scale of stock business, real estate trust may become the foothold of trust transformation.
Take REITs (Real Estate Trust and Investment Fund) as an example. Although the trust is still in the "dominant" primary real estate market, and the business volume of REITs is still very small, once it enters the real estate industry and enters the stage of stock game, the trust will actively intervene.
In view of the low rental return rate faced by REITs business at present, Liao Hekai believes that this situation may change in the future, and the essence of deleveraging lies in returning to the value of assets themselves.
On the other hand, from the perspective of trust itself, the biggest advantage lies in cross-market operation, and returning to the origin means not being limited to fund trust management. As an important part of China's family assets, real estate still has many opportunities from the perspective of the stock market.