Footprints of Endeavour: Comments on Oriental Fortune Semi-annual Report

First, the financing balance reached 654.38+09.6 billion yuan, an increase of 2.6 billion yuan over the first quarter, an increase of 3.7 billion yuan over the beginning of the year, a year-on-year increase of 53%, and a net increase of 65.438+0 times over the end of 2065.438+07. This is a steady stream of cash income, which is the guarantee of Cai Dong's profit growth.

Second, the scale of consignment funds increased substantially, with 568.3 billion yuan of consignment funds completed in the first half of the year, an increase of 84% year-on-year; Among them, active treasure increased by 82.5% year-on-year, and sales of non-monetary funds increased by 85.2% year-on-year. According to the current market situation, the growth of consignment funds may be further accelerated in the second half of the year.

Third, the profit rate of the consignment fund has improved. In the first half of the year, the scale of the consignment fund increased by 84%, and the income increased by 102%, indicating that the commission rate of the consignment fund increased, that is to say, the price of the commission charged by Cai Dong to the fund company increased, and the consignment fund entered the stage of rising in volume and price.

As I mentioned in my previous column, we can't ignore the high flexibility of Tian Tian Fund. When the bull market comes, the agency fund business may be the most flexible business. According to the business trend this year, the scale of fund consignment in Cai Dong may reach 1 trillion, which is the only scale in the bull market in 20 15 years. At that time, the market value of Cai Dong, which only engaged in the agency fund business, reached a height of 200 billion.

Generally speaking, this semi-annual report is in line with expectations and very satisfactory. Interestingly, the semi-annual report shows that Cai Dong did lose money in stock trading in the first half of the year. What the hell is this?

The first is about the recent trend of Cai Dong's share price. Recently, Cai Dong's share price trend is weaker than the market and brokerage stocks, and there are signs of high consolidation and shipment from the turnover rate. Of course, this is just my own immature technical judgment. From the perspective of individual shareholding, I tend to hold it for a long time, ignoring the current decline. If it is a new fund, I suggest opening positions gradually. If it is a large-scale opening price, I suggest it is about 65.438+05 billion.

The second is about the valuation of Cai Dong. In fact, if we follow it for a long time, we can see that the valuation of Cai Dong is no longer cheap, almost no less than 50 times PE. In other words, Cai Dong's share price rise in recent years mainly comes from the improvement of performance, not the improvement of valuation. In 20 17, Cai Dong made a profit of 600 million, with a market value of about 50 billion. In 20 19, the profit of Cai Dong was1800 million, and the market value was about 100 billion. At present, the market value of Cai Dong is 200 billion, with a half-year profit of1800 million. In other words, Cai Dong earned three times as much money in the first half of 2020 as in the whole year of 20 17. In other words, all the growth of Cai Dong's market value comes from performance growth, and there is no component of valuation improvement.

As for the current 50 times PE valuation, is it expensive? To tell the truth, I can't answer either! But the problem is that I have been following Cai Dong for so many years, and the valuation has not been lower than 50 times for a long time. Every time the PE is lower than 50 times, it is a good time to buy.

The third is the regret about this semi-annual report. The only regret is that the size of the Cai Dong Fund has not been disclosed. As I mentioned in my previous column, Cai Dong Fund is of great significance to Cai Dong Wealth Management Company. If Cai Dong Fund can quickly become bigger and stronger, and get out of the development curve similar to that of Cai Dong Securities, Cai Dong's valuation system will reach a new level. I hope this year's annual report can disclose more information about Cai Dong Fund.

Finally, for stocks, my advice is to hold them firmly, don't try to make bands, and you can buy them on dips if you have funds.

I wish you a fortune!