1 Why did Japan maintain social stability after the bursting of the real estate bubble? After the mid-1980s, under the pressure of the United States, the yen was forced to appreciate sharply, which had a negative impact on Japan's foreign exports. In order to prevent the economic downturn, the Japanese government has repeatedly lowered the official interest rate. Under the background of the appreciation of the yen and loose monetary policy, coupled with the Japanese government's long-term over-protection of banks, loopholes in financial supervision, imperfect information disclosure system, weakened bank risk awareness, a large amount of funds were released and flowed to the stock market and real estate market, pushing up stock prices and land prices, and the real estate bubble gradually formed. In just a few years, the market value of land price in Tokyo has risen to the equivalent of the land price in the whole United States, which shows that the land price in Japan has soared to the point of almost absurdity during this period. However, the bubble will eventually burst, but when you are in the bubble, you will often be tempted by impetuousness and luxury, thus losing your way. As alan greenspan, former chairman of the US Federal Reserve Board of Directors, said, "Only when the bubble bursts will you realize its existence." 1On March 27th, 990, the Ministry of Finance issued the notice of Total Real Estate Financing of Financial Institutions, and began to restrict real estate financing. The implementation of this measure was later called the "fire engine" of the bursting of Japan's real estate bubble. Subsequently, Japan's major banks began to drastically reduce the scale of real estate-related loans, raise loan interest rates, and began to levy land taxes. These measures have had an effect on curbing the rise in housing prices, and Japan's real estate bubble has burst. 199 1 year later, the land prices in several metropolitan areas in Japan began to drop significantly, and now the house prices in Japan are less than half of those in the bubble period. Great economic success after the war led to a lack of vigilance against bubbles. Most people think that the "land myth" will last until the mid-1980s. Japan has never experienced a bubble economy, and it lacks awareness and vigilance. The great economic success after the war greatly boosted Japan's self-confidence. For the rapid expansion of assets in the late 1980s, many Japanese people formed an illusion that it was "the arrival of a brand-new era". This is why during the real estate bubble, no one in the Japanese government and media publicly expressed their concern about the bursting of the bubble, but what people saw and heard were more encouraging news such as "land appreciation", "bank collapse" and "Mitsubishi's acquisition of Rockefeller Center in the United States". Most people also believe that Japan's strong economic strength and scarce land resources will support the continuation of the "land myth". In this intoxicated atmosphere, coupled with the inflection point of Japanese housing prices in June, 1990, the investment, export and domestic sales of manufacturing equipment are still active. Neither the government nor the people realized that the real estate bubble began to burst, and even more unexpectedly, the Japanese economy entered the "lost twenty years" from then on. Many people think that the decline in land prices is only temporary, at least not so big. Banks hold this hope and shelve the bad debts that have already appeared. In addition to believing in "land appreciation", there is another reason to support this idea: Japan is an export-oriented economy, and in order to promote exports, the government will issue more money to depress the exchange rate of the yen. With the gradual return of the exchange rate of the Japanese yen against the US dollar, Japan's economy will maintain steady growth, and house prices will also pick up, and there is a possibility of an increase. Therefore, in the early days when Japan's real estate bubble burst and land prices fell, not many people were eager to sell real estate, and the society as a whole was in a stable normal state. When people gradually turned from hope to despair in the real estate market, there was no big wave and turmoil in the whole Japanese society. If Japanese citizens have been digesting the fact of falling land prices at the beginning of the bubble burst, hoping for the rebound of the real estate market, then after the second quarter of 199 1, Japan's real economy turned into depression, the number of unemployed people in China increased, and the value of stocks and houses held by the people shrank sharply, and people gradually turned to despair of the real estate market. First of all, Japan is a country ruled by law and an honest society, and its citizens generally have a strong sense of contract. Children have been educated by their families and schools since childhood, so they should abide by the law and keep their promises. In Japan, when conducting real estate transactions, the seller will clearly explain all kinds of risks and their consequences in advance. If the buyer is willing to bear such risks and responsibilities, it is possible for both parties to sign a contract. In this way, buyers and sellers have a full understanding of their rights, risks and responsibilities. Once a contract is signed, it is natural to abide by it. If there are problems and disputes after the transaction, you can resort to relevant laws and punish all kinds of breach of contract accordingly. Secondly, the impact of falling house prices on ordinary wage earners and low-income people is limited. Japanese people have to pay certain taxes when selling, holding and transferring real estate, such as real estate acquisition tax, stamp duty, fixed assets tax, ownership transfer registration tax and so on. If the house is left to children as property, gift tax and inheritance tax are also required. The tax cost and burden of buying a house has become an important factor that Japanese people need to weigh when buying a house. Therefore, ordinary wage earners and low-income people in Japan generally cannot afford to buy houses, and rich people will not hoard multiple houses for investment purposes. On the other hand, in Japan, many people live by renting houses, and it is also common for young people to get married and rent houses. Renters are often low-income. Falling land prices and house prices will also push down rents and let them rent cheaper houses. It should also be noted that before the formation of the bubble economy, Japan had established a relatively complete social security system for unemployment, medical care and old-age care, which could basically guarantee the basic livelihood of all people, which also helped to resist economic crises and emergencies and maintain social harmony and stability. Enlightenment from the bursting of the bubble: there is no "land myth" in the market economy, and house prices cannot rise or fall. The discussion about housing prices in China is very intense. There is no doubt that there is a bubble in China's real estate market. Its direct performance is that a large amount of funds have separated from the real economy and flowed into the real estate market, resulting in an abnormal rise in house prices, which has obviously exceeded the actual economic growth level and greatly exceeded the people's ability to pay. So, will China's real estate bubble burst as it did in the early 1990s? This is a controversial issue in recent two years. One view is that the level of urbanization in China is not high, land resources are limited, and house prices are naturally under pressure; Property buyers are mainly self-raised funds, and the scale of real estate loans is limited; There are many foreign capitals in China, so it is difficult for the United States to support the demand of RMB appreciation by 4. So China won't have a Japanese bubble burst. There is also a view that there are many similarities between China and Japan at that time, such as export-oriented economy, RMB appreciation and industrial structure transformation. China may have a real estate market crash like Japan's, or even more serious than Japan's. There is another point between the two. No matter what viewpoint it is, we can see from the arguments of these viewpoints that the reasons for the formation and bursting of bubbles are complex and diverse. Compared with Japan 20 years ago, China is facing a more complicated and changeable domestic and international environment. On the one hand, with the economic slowdown in Europe, America and Japan, rising trade protectionism and increasing pressure and expectation of RMB appreciation, China's economy is still growing rapidly. The existence of huge investment market and interest spread has certain attraction to hot money; On the other hand, with the deepening of economic internationalization, increasingly frequent cross-border capital flows, increasing speculative factors and slight turbulence in the international market, hot money may flood into emerging markets. Moreover, China has a vast territory and a large population. Although the rigid demand for housing in first-tier cities is gradually ebbing, the rigid demand in second-and third-tier cities is still strong. Therefore, the regulation of the real estate market can not be taken lightly, and the social problems that may be hidden can not be ignored. In this regard, the formation and bursting of Japan's real estate bubble may give us some reference and enlightenment. First, find out that the bubble is squeezed out in time, and don't wait until the bubble gets bigger before taking measures. This will only aggravate the pain after the bursting, let alone expect to remedy it afterwards. It is most important to nip in the bud; Second, actively guide surplus funds to be transformed into industrial capital, so that they can flow to the real economy and prevent the formation and expansion of bubbles from the source of funds; Third, while regulating the real estate market, we should strengthen risk education for investors. Real estate is not an ordinary mass consumer product, and it has high risks. There is no "land myth" in the market economy, and house prices can't just rise or fall. Fourth, popularize people's contractual awareness and warn investors that after buying any risky products, they can not only enjoy the benefits when the price rises, but also bear the risks and losses when the price falls. Once any transaction is signed, the contract must be fulfilled, and psychological education and guidance should be strengthened for investors who have suffered or may suffer losses; Fifth, improve and perfect China's real estate laws and regulations and tax system as soon as possible, speed up the construction of social security system, and build a harmonious and stable society. As the people of China, they also need to learn from the bursting of the Japanese real estate bubble. That is, after the bubble economy burst, the Japanese attitude towards life has changed to a certain extent. They no longer pursue luxury goods and high-end consumer goods as they did during the bubble economy, but are more pragmatic and like to buy genuine low-priced goods.