This is the first time since February 2020 that the balance of mortgage supplementary loans has increased net, and the extent far exceeds expectations, which has aroused great concern in the market.
PSL English is pledge supplementary loan, namely mortgage supplementary loan, which is the financial support provided by the central bank to the three major policy banks in China.
For this round of PSL investment, CITIC Securities (600030) believes that PSL is likely to be used to support the national special loan of 200 billion yuan for Baojiaolou.
The central bank will instruct the China Development Bank and the Agricultural Development Bank of China to arrange 200 billion yuan of national special loans to support the Baojiaolou within the existing loan quota, so as to help the project to speed up the resumption of work and ensure the completion and delivery.
It is understood that the average completion rate of unfinished residential building installation is about 90%, and the 200 billion yuan special PSL for ground floor protection is expected to activate 1 trillion yuan stock building.
Li, chief researcher of the Housing Policy Research Center of Guangdong Urban Planning Institute, believes that it is an innovative and distinctive monetary policy tool during the last round of large-scale monetary resettlement. The basic logic is that CDB issues PSL loans, injects the funds invested in the compensation and resettlement of shed reform projects, and the local government sells the land, and repays PSL after the demolition is completed, forming a closed loop of funds "investment-application-repayment".
Since then, this mode of directional injection of money has caused the purchasing power of houses to be created out of thin air, such as pushing up the cost of shed reform and speeding up the progress of shed reform (relocated households can get money and then rush into the property market), which led to the rise of house prices in the later period. Finally, on 20 19, the central bank began to significantly reduce PSL.
Recently, PSL has started again. The fundamental reason is that during the promotion of Jie Bao Tower, the promotion of Jie Bao Tower is not smooth or slow due to the reluctance of market funds, the tight capital chain of developers, the limited amount of special loans and bail-out funds, and strict access conditions (such as the balance of project funds). This is a logic with the slow progress of shed reform caused by insufficient funds in the new round of shed reform on 20 14. Therefore, it is necessary to inject high-credit funds from many parties. In addition to special loans, local bail-out funds and PSL of policy banks, it can signal that funds will enter the market with state-owned credit. In addition to increasing the amount of start-up funds, state-owned credit can also be injected.
On the one hand, restarting PSL can activate the entry of market funds, on the other hand, it can also boost the confidence of upstream and downstream, including the confidence of construction units, suppliers, property buyers and small owners who have already bought houses. Of course, PSL, like a special loan, must be repaid with interest. The difference is that special loans are put in by CDB and others on behalf of the Ministry of Finance, and incorporated into local government debts, which are undertaken, used and repaid by state-owned enterprises or platforms, while PSL is an independent investment behavior of policy banks such as CDB. Although it is attributed to policy and publicity, it is still necessary to maintain a low profit.
Therefore, although PSL opens the floodgates and releases water, the screening of projects is still relatively strict and cannot be optimistic. However, when it is superimposed with special loans, it can produce greater credit enhancement and boost market confidence. Of course, as a market-oriented enterprise, CDB has its own advantages in project screening and risk identification compared with the special loans promoted by the Ministry of Finance, which can promote some projects that may not be promoted by special loans.
Li said that, in short, the construction of Baojiao has entered a critical stage, and its strength is constantly increasing. However, it is necessary to protect the rights and interests of small owners and stabilize the property market, but it is also necessary to implement the principles of marketization, legalization and sustainable business investment, avoid moral hazard and help developers lie flat. Therefore, the main responsibility of enterprise self-help is still the first. Special loans, bail-out funds, PSL, etc. Only on the premise of successful recovery of funds, help the project to revitalize and turn over funds.
Qiangqiang Yulong wan
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Reference price: the reference average price is 4580 yuan/㎡.
Address: intersection of Changde Avenue and Jindan Road (north of Changde Avenue and west of Jindan Road)
Property telephone number: 400-8 19-6590 to 04 17.
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