Zinc Finance

What new changes have taken place in the investment environment in 219?

The slogan "Live" at Vanke's autumn meeting in 218 indicates that the winter of real estate has arrived, which has caused many people's anxiety. Accelerating the withdrawal of funds and shrinking the front line have become the primary goals of major housing enterprises. In fact, not only the real estate industry, Ren Zhengfei also said at Huawei's 218 strategy meeting: "Living is Huawei's highest strategy."

With the slogan of "live", there is a wave of layoffs of major enterprises, from Meituan and JD.COM of Internet companies to Greentown and Country Garden of real estate companies. In 218, at least 16 companies were laid off and the recruitment scale was reduced.

in fact, the financial industry should be the first to feel the cold winter of 218. "Capital winter" has long been a high-frequency word in the venture capital circle. The monetary environment is tightening, financial supervision is becoming stricter, the Sino-US trade war is unresolved, and the credit crisis caused by frequent thunderstorms in the P2P industry is particularly obvious in 218. At present, this trend seems to be difficult to find a turning point in 219.

in such an investment environment, from the perspective of capital, the industry is more cautious, and the level of debt financing and financing cost is no longer as decisive as it used to be, and equity funds PE and VC are not as "waves" to buy the track as in the era of mass entrepreneurship and innovation.

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how do you judge the capital market in 219?

in 219, steady growth remains the primary goal of economic development. From the specific macro indicators, borrowing the economist Shao Yu's point of view, the boundary of relevant policy formulation is "defending 678", that is, GDP growth rate "guaranteeing 6", RMB exchange rate "guaranteeing 7" and M2 growth rate "guaranteeing 8". The RMB exchange rate will be affected by interest rate spread in the short term, inflation in the medium term and labor productivity in the long term. Against the background of the complicated international situation, protecting the exchange rate means protecting confidence. In addition, it remains to be seen whether the foreign exchange reserves of 3 trillion will hold.

In terms of liquidity, M2 will return to the normal track. And through appropriate policy guidance, guide the credit flow to the private enterprise sector and the real economy, so as to ensure the relative stability of finance, economy and asset prices.

In 219, the A-share market, which is facing the bottom of valuation, may have overseas capital inflows, and some themes such as science and technology innovation board and 5G may bring new impetus to the whole market, so I think investors with higher risk appetite can slowly lay out A-shares.

With regard to the fixed income market, at present, the domestic inflation pressure is downward, the Federal Reserve is at the end of raising interest rates, the Bank of China tends to be loose in monetary policy, and it has started a comprehensive RRR cut at the beginning of the new year, so the probability of a targeted downward adjustment of market interest rates in the future has increased. Therefore, locking in some high-quality fixed income products now will help to counter the downward trend of future market interest rates.

With regard to the floating market, the secondary market will be more active than the primary market. At present, the policy supports the secondary market actively. The secondary market is in a historical position of valuation, and the loose monetary policy will bring about liquidity improvement, so the stock market will benefit and rebound as a whole. However, the profit of the stock market is still declining, so the shock will be aggravated during the financial report disclosure period. The primary market will lag behind and show signs of recovery, and the M&A market will take the lead in the primary market because of the policy support.

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what suggestions do you have on asset allocation for the three types of investors: conservative, conservative and radical?

Starting from the new asset management regulations, the first step for asset management institutions is to identify investors. As practitioners, we should help investors to identify what kind of investment style or investment preference and risk preference he has; In the second step, we can match the customer with his suitable assets.

At a deeper level, since the financial reform, a series of policies have caused investors to face many difficulties, and 219 is even more confusing. There are too many variables and influencing factors. What will happen to the Sino-US trade war? Can private enterprises in the real economy get rid of the dilemma of credit contraction, including whether market-oriented reform can reshape the business environment? These are all very uncertain.

At the same time, we think that the Matthew effect may be intensified in 219. Many central enterprises and large enterprises can get money from banks or capital, but more small and medium-sized enterprises still can't get financing. Therefore, from the perspective of big investment strategy, we still advise investors to look at the big trend and choose some physical industries with industrial upgrading, because it is a very big strategy for the whole country to get rid of the virtual reality now, and investors still put more money on some assets that can be understood or have a clearer logic.

for conservative investors, it may be more suitable to choose some relatively stable channels, such as trust funds, but the core logic of investment is: the underlying assets can be clearly seen and understood, who the money is invested in, what the money is used for, and what to pay back in the end. This logic is very clear in some industries.

for relatively radical customers, we suggest allocating some secondary markets, including some overseas investments. In fact, we think that the current situation of China's capital market, the valuation of the secondary market is already very low. Even if you invest in some PE projects, you might as well invest in the secondary market, because the prices of some industries in the secondary market have been upside down, which may be cheaper than the price of a PE you invest in, and the relative risk is even lower. Of course, this should be based on the real risk preference and financial situation of customers.

for stable customers, the core logic is that investors should invest in assets with transparent bottom and clear repayment logic.

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in addition, some real estate projects, consumer finance, supply chain finance, and some upgraded and transformed industries are all opportunities that we feel. As long as we find the core enterprises, we can invest and cooperate for a long time.

At the same time, there are opportunities in technology industry and consumer service industry. The technology category mainly includes electronics, components, software and information services, while the consumer service industry mainly includes media, tourism, commerce and leisure services. However, the choice of counterparties should be thoroughly analyzed.

Generally speaking, the opportunity lies in finding that in 219, science and technology innovation board will provide policy catalysts and improve liquidity, which will obviously promote the growth of small and medium-sized stocks. A professional team in Shengshi Yongan will constantly optimize its selection according to the rapid changes in the market.

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between investment income and investment safety, how do investors often choose? What kind of advice will Shengshi Yongan give?

The income is directly proportional to the high probability of risk, and excluding some opportunistic investments may win high income. This may be human greed. Or many customers are lucky, or the institutions chosen by customers or financial management may not be so professional.

As mentioned above, investors should first make self-judgment on their risk preference. For a conservative or relatively stable customer, we still insist that 1% yield is a threshold. Unless it is a customized product, I think we need to be very cautious about the yield of more than 1% in the current market. I think the yield of private equity products within 1% is relatively reasonable.

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where are the development opportunities of asset management institutions in the next stage?

in my opinion, the development trend of asset management may tend to be more refined, and it is possible to choose several industrial directions and then do it in depth, fine and thorough.

For example, we have abandoned the investment logic of "casting a net and buying a track" in many institutions in the early years. Now we basically choose a small number of partners, make heavy punches and concentrate resources, and then focus on several industries or enterprises through in-depth and long-term cooperation to provide more support for these industries and enterprises, which will share more profits and investment opportunities brought about by growth. I think this may be the next few asset management opportunities.