Under the general trend of global economic integration, facing the reality of greater downward pressure on the domestic economy, it is an inevitable choice to actively expand overseas markets and rely on other new economies to achieve their own economic development.
However, in the "shift period" when China's economy entered a new normal and its economic development changed from a high-speed growth period to a medium-speed growth period, no economy could shoulder the heavy responsibility of strong demand for mineral resources. The global economic growth rate has slowed down structurally, the American economy is still recovering and adjusting, and the economies of the euro zone and Southeast Asia are also facing the risk of turbulence. These unfavorable factors directly led to the continuous cooling of the global mining industry.
The trend of geological survey shows that the global mining activity index (PAI) has dropped to 4 1 by May of 201,reaching the lowest level in recent three years. The price of SNL metal index also almost fell to the lowest point in the past three years; The market value of mining industry has rebounded in the past six months, but it is far less than the same period last year. The global mining industry continues to show a cold trend with no signs of improvement.
Confidence is more important than gold. However, the current mining situation makes the heads of many mining companies and even some industry experts feel pessimistic. "Is the mining industry at its lowest point now?" And "when will the mining industry recover?" These problems are the best proof, and they have become the subject of communication among people in the industry on various occasions.
According to the trend analysis of geological survey, the current global mining situation is still grim, and the reasons mainly include the following aspects: First, it is affected by the cyclical fluctuation of the overall economic situation and downward pressure. This is an inherent law that is difficult to change. The second is to cause overcapacity and oversupply of mineral products. The high price of mineral products in previous years led to the expansion of production capacity and output in many mines, and the release of production capacity and the decline after the surge in demand led to oversupply. The third is human factors. Market economy is also a "confidence economy" to some extent. Lack of confidence and pessimistic expectations often bring false information about market supply and demand, causing large fluctuations in the market.
The price of mineral products is the weather vane of the mining market, which directly determines the future mining trend. But the current price of mineral products is not strong. It is understood that at present, the prices of important mineral products in the world are close to the average production cost, and the trend continues to differentiate. In the first half of 20 15, the spot price of LME gold fluctuated around 1200 USD/oz, which is also the marginal production cost of global gold producers at present. International iron ore prices have fallen sharply. By March, 20 15, the average price of domestic imported iron ore had dropped to 67.03 USD/ton, falling for 15 months. April 10 even fell to the lowest point, which was 46.84 USD/ton. Goldman Sachs analysts said that the iron ore price in 20 15 is expected to drop to $52 per ton, which is 18% lower than previously expected. Goldman Sachs' price forecast for the next two years is $44 and $40 per ton, respectively, which is about 30% lower than the previous forecast. According to the research report of Citigroup, the lowest price of iron ore will drop to $30/ton due to the declining demand in China and the contrarian expansion of many iron ore giants around the world. Citigroup predicts that the supply of iron ore will exceed 1 100 tons in 20 15 years, of which 68 million tons of overcapacity is caused by Rio Tinto. This will inevitably lead to a continuous decline in iron ore prices. However, the prices of copper, nickel and tin continued the downward trend since 20 1 1 and continued to fall sharply.
As for coal, another major mining industry, the prospect is equally bleak, coal prices are still hovering at a low level, and the upward momentum is insufficient. Although the thermal coal market bottomed out for the first time in June this year, it was weak due to the lack of support from terminal demand. Although July and August are the traditional peak periods of coal consumption in summer, it is still difficult for industrial electricity demand to rebound obviously in the short term. Considering the increase of hydropower output and the substitution effect of clean energy, it is expected that the domestic market will be in a long bottom shock process in the later period.
The global mining industry is getting colder, and people in the industry are not optimistic about the short-term mining situation, which directly leads to the decline in mergers and acquisitions of global energy minerals and solid minerals companies. According to the report released by Wood McKinsey & Company, in the first four months of 20 15, the global M&A transaction volume of oil and gas dropped sharply. From June to April, the average number of transactions per month was about 20, compared with 30-50 at the end of last year. Almost all monthly oil and gas transactions are below $654.38+00 billion, a sharp drop compared with $20 billion in February last year. However, in April, Shell spent more than $80 billion to acquire BG, setting a number of records and setting a new high of global monthly transaction amount 15.
From the perspective of global mining mergers and acquisitions, according to SNL statistics, there were 24 global mergers and acquisitions in the first quarter of 20 15, which was lower than 43 in the fourth quarter and 52 in the third quarter of 20 14. The total amount was USD 4.67 billion, which was basically the same as that in the fourth quarter of 20 14. As in previous years, M&A's mining activities in the first half of this year are still mainly concentrated on a few minerals such as gold and copper. For example, MubadalaDevelopment Company bought AUXCanada Company for about $2 billion. AUXCanada is a gold mine service company, and its assets mainly include LaBodega gold mine in Colombia.
There are no eggs under the nest. The continuous decline in the global mining situation and the sharp decline in the number of mining mergers and acquisitions have also directly affected the enthusiasm of China mining enterprises for mergers and acquisitions. It is understood that although the market value of many overseas mining enterprises has seriously shrunk, and some of them are insolvent, the enthusiasm of China mining enterprises to "go global" for bargain-hunting mergers and acquisitions is not high, because of their lack of funds, difficulties in financing, lack of confidence in the mining market and fear of taking risks easily.
Winter approaches spring.
When winter comes, spring is not far away. Like the four seasons, the mining industry in China will surely usher in its own spring in the cold winter.
"The global mining industry, including China Mining, is currently in the stage of rational return, but in the long run, China Mining still has many development opportunities." Luan Zhengming, director of the Natural Resources Law Committee of the Beijing Lawyers Association and chief partner of Beijing Youren Law Firm, believes that the industrialization of many developing countries in Africa and Central Asia has not been completed, and a lot of infrastructure needs to be built. China's mineral resources, including rare earth, tungsten, molybdenum and graphite, have incomparable advantages. In the next few years, China's mining industry will surely usher in new development opportunities.
The trend of geological survey points out that the development situation of mining companies is still very difficult. As stated in the research report "20 15 Mining Trend Tracking" released by Deloitte in the first half of this year, the main challenges facing the global mining industry are unstable mineral market prices, geopolitical turmoil, rising costs, declining ore grade and general lack of financing channels. However, in the long run, driven by the prevalence of the Internet economy, the great adjustment of the global manufacturing pattern and the new round of infrastructure construction boom, the global economy will finally usher in a new period of development opportunities. In this sense, the global mining industry may not be far away.
"With the rise of a new round of infrastructure investment boom, the global mining industry is expected to get out of the downturn in the next two to three years." The trend of geological survey shows that from the overall development of the global economy, all major economies are launching their own economic revitalization plans, including the "Belt and Road Initiative" that China is rapidly promoting, the Asian Infrastructure Investment and Development Bank, and the Silk Road Fund. Infrastructure interconnection is the core of the Belt and Road Initiative. According to the general infrastructure construction cycle of 2 to 4 years, the domestic investment in the Belt and Road in 20 15 may be around 300 billion to 400 billion yuan, which is expected to boost GDP growth by 0.2 to 0.3 percentage points. Relevant statistics show that the "Belt and Road Initiative" will cover 4.4 billion people, and the GDP will exceed 20 trillion US dollars, accounting for 63% and 29% of the world respectively. With the implementation of the Belt and Road Initiative, the trend of low investment may be reversed, and the fourth investment boom of China economy is about to kick off. At the same time, Europe and Japan are also launching infrastructure investment or assistance programs. There are indications that, driven by the new round of global infrastructure investment boom and the rapid development of emerging economies such as India and Indonesia, the global mining industry is likely to usher in new development opportunities in the next two to three years, but it is unlikely to reach or exceed the peak of the last round.
"In the next few years, although the world is expected to form a new round of infrastructure construction boom, its speed and depth are likely to be less than that of China in the previous decade, and the prosperity of mineral resources is unlikely to reach the peak of previous years." The dynamic geological survey specifically points out that it is necessary to highlight the geological survey of energy resources, speed up the structural adjustment of geological survey, strengthen the investigation and evaluation of resources such as oil and gas, shale gas and natural gas hydrate, strengthen the investigation and evaluation of strategic mineral resources closely related to new industrialization, and strengthen the development of urban geology, environmental geology, ecological geology, land quality geological survey and other related fields closely related to new urbanization.
"Geological Survey Trends" also specifically reminds that the price of mineral assets is close to the bottom, but the acquisition of overseas mineral assets still needs to be cautious. On the one hand, in the current external environment, the market liquidity is not plentiful, and the capital cost required for mergers and acquisitions is high; On the other hand, the current mining industry is at a relatively low level, which does not mean that the mining industry will rebound soon. After overseas high-quality assets are copied to the end, they need a lot of money to maintain and need to make long-term investment planning. Moreover, the assets spun off by large companies are not necessarily high-quality assets, which need to be carefully screened, and mergers and acquisitions need to be cautious. It is suggested to strengthen the search and screening of overseas high-quality mineral assets and the comprehensive economic evaluation of geological resources to reduce the risk of overseas mergers and acquisitions.
"At present, the global mining assets are seriously shrinking, which is not only a favorable opportunity for the optimization and integration of the global mining market, but also an excellent opportunity for China enterprises to' go global' and bargain-hunting mergers and acquisitions. But it also faces many risks and must be cautious. " In this regard, Wang Jiahua gave a suggestion: "China enterprises participating in overseas mergers and acquisitions must gather together to warm up, strengthen alliances, give full play to team advantages such as capital, technology and management, select mature projects, take into account short-term and medium-and long-term projects, and proceed in stages."