With 20 12, the fund is all red, and the enthusiasm of investors to invest in funds is once again ignited. However, it is increasingly difficult to invest in the Millennium era. 20 13 how should investors make capital investment? A few days ago, Guo Jin Securities (600 109, Stock Bar) released the 20 13 fund investment strategy report, giving investors some guidance for the new year. Equity funds: using style and market rhythm, it is suggested that the asset allocation of fund portfolio should remain neutral throughout the year. Judging from the rhythm of fund portfolio allocation, we can take the initiative and strengthen the offensive in the short term. From the perspective of fund style allocation, the report of Guo Jin Securities, a 20 13 cycle style fund, pointed out that the bottleneck of economic growth and monetary constraints in 20 13 will not be significantly improved, and the opening of a new round of reform is expected to become an important factor affecting the market. From a global perspective, the index valuation advantage of A shares is obvious, especially the valuation of blue chips is at a historical low level, which provides strong support for the market. The 20 13 trend market is difficult to deduce, and the reform dividend is expected to lead the structural market during the market shock throughout the year. Judging from the rhythm of the market, in the first quarter, when the economy stabilizes in the short term and the expectation of system reform is vague, the market still has the opportunity to repair upwards. After that, the market will find new support, and the substantive promotion of reform and the change of liquidity will play a decisive role. Based on the above judgment, it is suggested that investors should focus on neutral portfolio asset allocation throughout the year, and actively managed stock funds can pay attention to varieties with outstanding medium and long-term management ability and strong performance sustainability. During the year, combined with policy dynamic adjustment, liquidity changes, investor sentiment, etc. Considering the regression and valuation difference of market style assets, it is more offensive to adjust the stage portfolio elasticity from the perspective of style rather than position. Judging from the rhythm of fund portfolio allocation, we can be aggressive in the short term. At the same time, it takes a certain process to consider the release of market structural valuation risk. Strategically, focus on increasing the investment ratio of cyclical and value funds, and provide the allocation characteristics of both offensive and defensive. With the release of the substantial reform bonus in the second half of the year, it can be supplemented from the perspective of flexible and theme funds in the middle and late period to adapt to structural opportunities. In the complex market environment of 20 13, active investment funds can take the initiative to attack, especially by further selecting funds to build a portfolio, and funds with strong investment management ability still have a greater chance to obtain excess returns. In the selection of active funds, on the one hand, we choose managers with outstanding investment ability from the perspective of fund managers, on the other hand, we pay attention to funds with sustainable performance from the perspective of products. Investing in active index funds can be used as an important tool to supplement the style. Especially under the background that active funds tend to invest in small and medium-sized growth, the more transparent characteristics of index funds make it more efficient to grasp the cycle and value style. From the perspective of fund style allocation, investors are advised to focus on cyclical style funds, especially in the short and medium term. In the seasonal peak season in the first half of the economic cycle and the stage when structural valuation needs to be released, cyclical style funds can be over-allocated. While paying attention to some active funds with prominent cyclical style and strong investment ability, index funds can be used to supplement the style. From the perspective of the whole year, the consumption growth style funds are more intensively cultivated from the perspective of sub-sectors or individual stocks, giving priority to the funds in the industry direction where the prosperity can be maintained and the funds with outstanding stock selection ability from the bottom up. We should carefully select stocks throughout the year, and intensive cultivation of real growth stocks is an important source for the fund to obtain better returns. Especially in the context of the increasingly significant differentiation of individual stocks, managers can have a stronger grasp based on their full understanding of individual stocks. According to the report of Guo Jin Securities, even in the past year, funds with flexible operation style were more dominant, but we can see that this flexibility did not show a low retention rate of heavy stocks. Flexibility and moderate retention rate seem contradictory, but they are not contrary to reality. Therefore, in the selection of specific products, it mainly combines the historical average retention of heavy stocks and the index of stock selection ability to screen; In terms of operation style, if appropriate active and flexible operation can continue to grasp the market rhythm, it can still continue its advantages. For funds with a preference of "medium and long-term holding", it is also expected to cross the economic cycle with the help of the growth of individual stocks. Fixed-income funds: debtors withdraw, and bond funds are reserved cautiously: the portfolio is carefully allocated, with moderate risk level as the main factor. Guo Jin Securities pointed out that the economic growth model driven by the increase or decrease of total resources in the past is unsustainable, and the economic growth will gradually change from "increment" to "stock" optimization model. Under the "stock" optimization model, the marginal contribution of the increase and decrease of the total liquidity to the bond market will be weakened, and the monetary policy will continue to maintain a moderate style. Therefore, the judgment of the bond market trend in the next stage will be more based on fundamental analysis. Combined with the judgment that the release of production pressure and the improvement of inventory income will only be seen in the second half of 20 13, the continuous adjustment of the bond market will not be supported before the bottom of the economy in the medium term, but the gradual emergence of the pressure of stock-debt conversion in the second half of the year will still be negative, and the trend throughout the year is likely to show a volatile pattern. Based on this, investors are advised to carefully allocate bond fund portfolios, give priority to moderate risk levels, and choose funds with high winning rate or strong downside risk control ability in volatile markets, such as Bank of China Zengli (163806, Fund Bar), E Fund Enhanced Return, South Dolly (2002102, Fund Bar), Penghua Putian, Guangfa Qiang and so on. In view of the fact that it is difficult for interest rate bonds to have an obvious trend, and the current high valuation premium of credit bonds also limits the downside of yield, Guo Jin Securities judges that the holding value of 20 13 bond market will be more important than band trading, and suggests that short-term investors pay attention to products with more medium and low-rated bonds and pay attention to risk control, such as Guangfa Strong Bond, Nuoan Bond (320004, Fund Bar), Yifangda Enhanced Return, Penghua Putian and Tianzhizhong. In addition, convertible bond investment and new share subscription will also significantly affect the mutual income level between bond funds. Investing in bond funds should not only pay attention to the overall investment and research strength of fund managers and even fixed income teams, but also the equity investment management ability of fund companies can not be ignored. Monetary fund: it can be used as a liquidity management tool and a substitute for improving demand deposits. The positioning of low-risk and low-yield money funds emphasizes providing investors with short-term idle funds, rather than excessively pursuing short-term high returns. Looking at the future 1-2 months, the income of the Monetary Fund is expected to remain at the first line of 3.5%. The historical law also shows that the end of the year and the beginning of the year are usually the stage of higher income of the money fund, but its long-term income trend will not change. For investors who have idle funds temporarily, it can be used as an upgraded substitute for demand deposits. In terms of variety selection, investors are advised to focus on Bosera cash, Huaxia cash, South Zengli, Guangfa currency and Fangda currency. In addition, high-liquidity products that break through the redemption bottleneck, such as Tianfu Express and Huabao Tianyi ETF, play a significant role in improving the efficiency of the use of existing funds and can be focused on. Short-term financial management debt base: the relative value will be improved. At the end of 20 12, the weekly average annualized income of wealth management debt base has been rising due to the phased tightening of funds. Although it does not have a relative advantage compared with the money fund after considering the liquidity factors comprehensively, in the long run, the relative value of the short-term wealth management debt base will be improved in the process of the return of the money fund to a reasonable level, and a wider investment scope, a higher repurchase ratio limit and the characteristics of quasi-closed operation will all help it obtain higher returns. In view of the fact that wealth management debt-based income mainly comes from bank agreement deposits, and the interest rate level of bank agreement deposits is closely related to the bargaining power of fund companies, considering the investment ability of fund companies in fixed-income assets and the scale of fund products, investors are advised to choose products with corresponding cycles according to their preference for idle funds, and can focus on products owned by managers such as ICBC Credit Suisse, China Construction Bank, Bank of China, China Merchants, Harvest and Guo Fu. QDII funds: mature and emerging, with balanced allocation in portfolio allocation, and overall allocation between mature markets and emerging markets. In 20 13, the world economy is expected to rebound slightly compared with 20 12, and global liquidity will continue to be maintained; Under the assumption that the market situation is stable, Guo Jin Securities suggests that investors can maintain the overall allocation of QDII funds between mature markets (mainly US stocks) and emerging markets (mainly Hong Kong stocks), and dynamically adjust the proportion according to the economic situation. With the introduction of specific measures to avoid the "fiscal cliff" plan, US stocks will be a better investment choice in the first two quarters. Emerging markets still have valuation advantages; The trend of "hot money inflow" in the Hong Kong market will not be reversed for the time being. However, after the return of value since the fourth quarter of last year, it is necessary to guard against the possible callback risk in the first quarter of this year. For commodity funds, Guo Jin Securities believes that crude oil and precious metals (gold) have poor annual risk returns, so it may be difficult to find obvious trend investment opportunities. Investors are advised to focus on short-term investments and pay attention to the rebound opportunities of commodities such as gold and crude oil after a possible sharp correction.