Analysis of the current international situation in 2012

The international economic, political, and security situation in 2012 and the past 2011 was complicated. Developing countries represented by the BRIC countries emerged, and the world's multi-polarization process continued to accelerate. The international economy is recovering slowly and unevenly, and there are still many uncertainties. The international security situation is not optimistic. The security of the Korean Peninsula is not optimistic, war is raging in the Middle East, the Iranian nuclear issue cannot be effectively resolved, large-scale military conflicts in Africa, and territorial disputes between China and neighboring countries are intensifying. More than half of 2011 has passed, and we look forward to cooperation, peace, development, and greenness.

A brief look at several major countries: the United States is beyond its capabilities and has made strategic adjustments and returned to Southeast Asia with a high profile to contain China; the European Union and the Eurozone have been severely tested by the international financial crisis, and European leaders are trying their best to Fighting the crisis; Russia feels the shortcomings of the resource export-dependent economic structure and decides to increase diplomacy to serve economic modernization; Japan's economy was already sluggish, and after experiencing a magnitude 9 earthquake, the national economy suffered a heavy blow, and the government's credibility Decline; China's diplomacy is active and proactive, playing an increasingly important role in international economic recovery, global comprehensive governance, and regional stability. However, domestic CPI continues to rise and territorial disputes with neighboring countries have become the most important issues affecting China's development.

1. Emerging powers are exerting influence in various fields, and the world's multi-polar development process is accelerating

Developing countries in Asia, Africa, Latin America and other countries have generally maintained a strong momentum of development, especially China. , Russia, India, Brazil, South Africa and other countries, their international influence continues to increase, the international balance of power is further developing in a relatively balanced direction, and the world's multi-polar trend has become more obvious. The International Monetary Fund predicts that developing countries will account for 52% of global GDP in 2011, surpassing OECD member countries for the first time in history. Emerging powers represented by the BRIC countries are playing an increasingly important role in global economic and financial governance, climate change, and international and regional hotspot issues such as the Iranian nuclear issue and the North Korean nuclear issue. In the G20, emerging markets and developing countries account for half of the member countries. However, the West, led by the United States, still has a comparative advantage and still dominates the discourse in international politics, economy, military, science and technology.

In response to new changes in the international situation, major countries have adjusted their foreign strategies and policies, and their interactions have become more active. The forms of international relations are more diverse and their connotations more complex. The camps and boundaries between traditional countries tend to be blurred, and the combination of interests becomes more complex. Around issues such as climate change, nuclear security and non-proliferation, and international financial reform, countries have formed different alliances based on different interests. The actors in international relations have become more diversified and international power has become more dispersed. Ordinary people have an increasing influence on foreign affairs and international relations through information technologies such as the Internet and mobile phones.

2. The economy is recovering slowly amid adjustments and still faces many uncertain risks.

In 2010, both developed countries and emerging economies showed signs of economic recovery to varying degrees. But on the other hand, the expansionary policies implemented by various countries to stimulate economic growth have led to high government debt. According to data from the World Economic Forum, the average fiscal deficit of G20 members accounts for nearly 8% of gross domestic product. The U.S. fiscal deficit reached a record high of $1.3 trillion in fiscal year 2010, and the fiscal deficit in fiscal year 2011 will worsen further. Japan's financial situation is not optimistic either. The government debt is 200% of GDP. The consumer price index has been declining for 20 consecutive months and it is deeply mired in deflation. However, post-earthquake reconstruction may bring a slight turn of events for Japan.

Major Asian countries such as China and India have a strong economic recovery, but they face risks of rising prices and economic overheating, and may transmit risks to other Asian countries. In 2011, the world economy will continue to grow, but there are uncertainties as to whether the growth will slow down. The development trend of the world economy is still very pessimistic.

The IMF's "Global Financial Report" believes that although the world economy is still recovering, the development of the global financial system still faces many uncertainties. As the world economy recovers, the balance sheets of economic entities are gradually improving, but further progress will require resolving legacy issues in major banking systems. However, huge downside risks remain, and developed countries face challenges in achieving sustained economic growth. Facts have proved that emerging market economies are more resistant to the impact of the financial crisis, but their financial systems are still fragile and face the risk of being hit by huge capital inflows.

3. The international security situation is complex and ever-changing, with China and the United States playing an important role

First, the Korean Peninsula is tense: North Korea and South Korea are still concerned about the "Cheonan incident" and the "Yonpyeong Island bombardment" Incident" has become an outburst, and tensions on the Korean peninsula will continue. The possibility of renewed military friction between North and South Korea is quite high. Since the leaders of both sides have limited room for maneuver in the domestic political field, the control of military frictions and conflicts will depend more on the restraint and restraint of neighboring powers such as the United States and China.

Second, the situation in the Middle East is worrying: Arab-Israeli negotiations once again broke down due to the Jewish settlement issue, and the Middle East peace process has been stalled again, and it will be difficult to start it again in the near future.