In a recent interview with the American Consumer News and Business Channel, Wood said, "We think we are in a recession. We think inventory is a big problem ... I have never seen so much inventory in my career. "
According to the data of Institute of Supply Management (ISM), the growth of American manufacturing slowed down in June, and the purchasing managers' index (PMI) was 53%, which was 3. 1 percentage point lower than that in May. A corporate executive in the clothing, leather and related products industries said: "We learned from customers that their inventory is high and their sales are declining. We expect orders to decline in the next few months until inventory and demand reach an appropriate balance. " .
According to the latest ISM data, the growth of US service industry in June was also lower than that of last month. Tim Quinlan and Shannon Silly, economists at Wells Fargo Securities, said in an analysis report: "The message conveyed by the ISM report in June is that service industry activities are cooling down, not shrinking."
Desmond Rahman, a senior researcher at the American Enterprise Institute and a former official of the International Monetary Fund, said: "As the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow estimate shows, GDP is likely to show negative growth in the second quarter. This will lead to negative growth for two consecutive quarters, which is a common definition of recession. "
However, Rahman pointed out that the National Bureau of Economic Research officially decided whether the country was in recession, and they did so "only after a delay of several months". The definition of recession by the National Bureau of Economic Research emphasizes that recession involves a significant decline in economic activity, which affects the whole economy and lasts for more than several months.
Rahman said: "Because the labor market is still strong, I am not sure whether the National Bureau of Economic Research will rush to say that we are in a recession." The US Department of Labor reported on Friday that employers in the United States added 372,000 jobs in June, and the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 3.6%, slightly higher than the level before the epidemic.
An analysis report released by the think tank PIIE said: "The employment report of the United States in June continues to show that a strong labor market is consistent with a strong economy and moderate inflationary pressures." Jason Furman, a senior researcher at PIIE and a professor at Harvard University, and Wilson Powell, a research assistant at the Kennedy School of Harvard University, wrote, "One inconsistency in the June data is the decline in the labor force participation rate. It dropped to 62.2%, lower than 63.4% before the epidemic. "
However, Furman and Powell pointed out, "If viewed from outside the labor market, other economic data are telling a worrying story, that is, an economy may be entering a recession, although the potential inflation rate is still high."
Many economists believe that it is only a matter of time before the Fed's tough stance drags the US economy into a recession with high inflation and low unemployment. Adam Posen, chairman of PIE, said recently: "If they raise the expected final interest rate of this interest rate hike cycle from around 3% to above 4%, it shows that they may need recession to reduce inflation."
According to a survey of nearly 70% top academic economists conducted by the Financial Times in cooperation with the Global Market Initiative of the Booth School of Business of the University of Chicago, the US economy will fall into recession next year. Bill Dudley, former president of the Federal Reserve Bank, wrote in a recent Bloomberg commentary that economic recession is inevitable in the next 65,438+02 to 65,438+08 months. Rahman said: "I am very much looking forward to the economic recession. I believe that the Fed is too tough when the economy is slowing down and financial markets are in trouble. " Rahman said that when the yield of two-year treasury bonds exceeds the yield of 10-year treasury bonds, the so-called yield reversal now reappears.