Lin Mingming
On the first day of 65438+1October 18, the breaking of new shares seemed to challenge the market bottom line, and a "spectacle" rare in history appeared. All five new shares broke when they went public, with a drop of more than 6.5%, and three of them even fell more than 12.5%. Feng Fan stocks in Shanghai stock market even fell out of 65,438+with great style.
According to the data of djinn Finance, since 20 10, * * * has 370 new shares listed, and 35 * * * have broken on the first day, with an average first-day breaking rate of nearly 10%. However, since 20 1 1, there have been ***2 1 new shares, of which 14 new shares fell below the issue price, and 9 broke on the first day, with a breaking rate of over 30% on the first day.
There were five before the New Year. He is my brother, Hailimeida (002537. SZ), Anjubao (300 155. SZ), Xiuqiang (300 160. SZ) and Huarui Wind Power (60 1588. SZ) has been in deep trouble.
In addition to the recent downturn in the secondary market, the long-standing "three highs" phenomenon is considered to be the fundamental reason for the start of this wave of market. The pricing mechanism of IPO has been pushed to the forefront again.
"It is not normal to issue shares at such a high price-earnings ratio. How can a market issue 90 times 100 times? " Bao Dai of an investment bank in Shanghai bluntly told reporters that "the value will return sooner or later."
Inquiry with large price difference
The value geometry of new shares has puzzled A shares for a long time. From "innovation" to "total failure", the pricing of new shares has left a series of question marks for this market.
IPO pricing is one of the problems. The disparity in the pricing of A-share IPO often confuses outsiders, which can be seen from one of the links-the inquiry of investment institutions.
Taking Huarui Wind Power as an example, in the off-line inquiry, the highest bidder is the self-operated investment account of Hualin Securities Co., Ltd., which is 138.68 yuan, and the lowest bidder is the enterprise annuity plan of Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Co., Ltd., which is 60 yuan. The inquiry of the same company is more than twice as bad.
The offline inquiry report of Feng Fan Co., Ltd. shows that the highest bidder is Gezhouba Group Finance Co., Ltd. Gundam 40 yuan, and the lowest bidder is Huatai Capital's cash management collective asset management plan, bidding for 24 yuan. The difference between them is as high as 16 yuan. The final issue price of Feng Fan shares was 35 yuan, which closed at 29.96 yuan on the first day.
The pricing of Asia-Pacific Technology is also very strange. The issue price is 40 yuan. However, the off-line inquiry report shows that the quotations of Anhui Guo Fu Industrial Investment Fund Management Co., Ltd., Guodu Securities, Baoying Fund and Zhongtian Securities are all below 30 yuan, and only Penghua Fund, Datong Securities, fortune securities and Yintai Securities are above 40 yuan, and most of them are around 30-40 yuan.
Not only is there a big deviation in offline inquiry, but it is also varied in the predictions of various institutions.
First Venture Securities predicts that the first day price of Sinovel will reach 135 yuan, but Guo Jin Securities thinks it will be in the range of 86-94 yuan.
According to the inquiry report of listing in Feng Fan, Guangfa Hua Fu, which has the highest valuation, is near 39 yuan, while Guo Jin Securities thinks the reasonable share price range is 24.20-29.04 yuan.
In terms of Asia-Pacific science and technology, the reasonable price forecast ranges given by soochow securities, Tianxiang Investment and Shen Yin Wanguo are all below 26 yuan. This is far from the issue price of 40 yuan.
Why is there such a big deviation in asking price and discussing reasonable price when facing the same company?
Stakeholders become the weakness of investment banks.
The disparity between bidding and final pricing is not accidental.
As early as last year 1 65438+1October1,the Guiding Opinions on Deepening the Reform of IPO was formally implemented. The ultimate goal of the supervision department is to standardize the inquiry system, improve the market system and mechanism, and avoid the inquiry method of "asking for exorbitant prices". However, judging from the current implementation results, the effect of the query mechanism under the new regulations is not obvious.
There are vital interests in all aspects, and the promoters are one of them.
The reporter found that among the nine listed companies that broke the 20 1 1, two were sponsored by Anxin Securities, and one was Guo Xin Securities, Huatai Securities, Hongyuan Securities, Guangfa Securities, Southwest Securities, Shen Yin Wanguo Securities and Dongxing Securities. Asia-Pacific Technology sponsored by Dongxing Securities has been listed successfully since 20 10, but it seems that it got off to a bad start and broke on the first day.
The two projects of Essence Securities this year, Hailimeida and Huarui Wind Power, were listed on June 20 10/10, 65438+ 1010, respectively, and their issuance expenses were 59,928,600 yuan and 13, 20 respectively.
However, the performance of these two companies on the first day of listing was not satisfactory. Hailimeida fell 0.64 yuan on the first day of listing, and Huarui Wind Power, which is known as the most expensive motherboard, fell 8.63 yuan, becoming the company with the biggest decline on the first day of listing this year.
The reporter found that before the listing of Hailimeida, Essence Securities had issued a report that "according to the calculation of many institutions, the EPS of the company in 20 10-20 12 years was 0.92 yuan, 1. 19 yuan and 2.25 yuan respectively. Give Hailimeida a price-earnings ratio of 20 1 1 year of 35-40 times, and the reasonable positioning range on the first day of listing is 4 1.65 yuan -47.6 yuan. "
If we have known for a long time that the reasonable price of Merida is between 4 1.65 yuan and 47.6 yuan, why should we price it in 49 yuan? Although Hailimeida's fundraising project is only 268 million yuan, the actual fundraising is as high as 654.38 billion yuan, which is more than three times of the over-raised funds. Unfortunately, Hailimeida has been going downhill since its listing and has never returned to the issue price. As of June 65438+1October 19, it closed at 3506 yuan.
Although Essence Securities had foresight in Hailimeida, in Huarui Wind Power, Essence Securities did not give investors advice after a full meal. Huarui Wind Power was once known as "the king of wind power in China", "the leader of wind power" and "the leader", but it did not perform well in the secondary market.
The issue price of Sinovel Wind Power was 90 yuan, but it fell to 8 1.37 yuan on the first day of closing, and even fell to 757 1 yuan as of 1.09. However, the report of Essence Securities is just like yesterday's "considering the high growth of the company and the reasonable premium of the industry leader, giving 20 1 1 year 27-33 times PE. The authoritative organization predicts that the annual EPS of Huarui Wind Power 201/kloc-0 is 3.7 yuan, and the corresponding reasonable valuation interval is 99.9- 122 yuan. However, considering that the company's issue price has been overdrawn by 20 1 1 year, and referring to the recent listing performance of large-cap stocks, the first-day increase will be appropriately lowered to 95-1/0.3 yuan. "
However, at present, the average dynamic P/E ratio of 20 1 1 of listed companies in the same industry is only 23.64 times. It is no accident that Huarui Wind Power broke.
The implementation of the recommendation system is mainly in the hope that the sponsors can handle the new shares well. But it turns out that some sponsors often only value their own interests and the interests of issuers. Failure to perform duties during the sponsorship process leads to the issuer disclosing false information.
"In order to get more sponsorship fees, there are countless examples of sponsors and issuers touting new shares. However, the "three highs" issuance of new shares, the issuer has more funds and the sponsor has more expenses, but it has pushed the risk to the secondary market. When the market is in a downturn, there are also huge risks in the primary market. The frequent breaking of new shares in recent years is the best proof. " Some market participants said.
When the reporter asked the sponsor whether there was a relevant mechanism to adjust this pricing defect, or whether it was necessary to force the formation of a relevant mechanism through the breaking of new shares, the sponsor asked: "How can the interests of the sponsor be adjusted by this?"