In 2008, Buffett made a bet with a fund manager to see whose return was high. The fund manager chose five funds, and the final returns of the five funds were 8.7%, 28.3%, 62.8%, 2.9% and 7.5% respectively, while the S&P index fund's yield was 85.4%, and the index fund won completely.
Therefore, some people in China highly admire index funds and regard Buffett's words as the golden rule. Actually, it's a little toddler.
Index funds have indeed achieved better returns than hedge funds, but some people in China have only seen the superficial phenomenon, failed to recognize the internal logic of index funds winning, and failed to pay attention to all Buffett's speeches. By selectively quoting Buffett's speech, make a judgment that is beneficial to your own point of view.
Buffett pointed out that during the nine-year betting period, the unusually weak stock market may promote the performance of hedge funds, because many hedge funds hold large-scale' short' positions. On the contrary, if the stock market brings unusually high returns nine years later, it will be very beneficial to index funds.
Obviously, index funds won in the US stock market, while hedge funds lost in the US stock market for several years. On the other hand, if the US stock market bears for several years in a row and hedge funds hold a large number of short positions, the income will increase exponentially, and index funds will plummet and suffer huge losses.
Therefore, index funds are not suitable for long-term holding, and only in a long-term bull market will they have holding value. For example, in the nine-year bull market after the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States, the stock index hit a record high many times, and the income from holding index funds was huge. In particular, A-shares are highly volatile and criticized by investors as short-lived and long-lived. Compared with ten years ago, the index has not increased. Holding index funds can't achieve good returns, and may even lose money.
Compared with the historical high of 6 124, the distance is less than half. If you had bought an index fund (there should have been no index fund at that time), your market value would have lost half. Even if you buy and hold at the high point of 15, the loss is above 40%, even at 18, 19. However, buying index funds at 2249 points will also yield about 30%, and the income is still very rich.
Therefore, investment index funds should also operate in bands, buying at the bottom of the market and selling at a high level. If the high position can be short and the low position can be long, the income will be more abundant.
You don't have to listen to the lies held by index funds for a long time. A stock market can't just go up and down, especially A shares. Financing is still the task of maximizing, and the long-term bull market is too difficult.
Index funds can of course be held permanently.
Take China A-share market as an example. In 2005, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index Fund was established. Since 14, the stock market has fluctuated. However, the increase of the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index funds is still close to four times. If you have held it for more than 14 years since the listing of the CSI 300, now your profit is nearly 4 times! This income is also good.
Many people think that index funds can't lose money for so many years! Actually, it's not like this.
Index funds such as Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index and SSE 50 all hold outstanding domestic listed companies. Most of them grow with the development of economy, and their performance has been increasing, and their returns to investors are also increasing. Buying index funds means buying the future and the long-term economic prospects of our country. As long as you are optimistic about the future economic development of China, you will hold index funds for a long time.
It is ok to hold index funds forever. Because the world will get better and better, human society will certainly get richer and richer. This is the general trend of the world. A hundred years later, people today must be richer than people today. Just as we are richer than people hundreds of years ago. Because history is developing and mankind is making progress. The pace of human exploration of wealth will not stop, and the stock market will rise to 10000 points.
Boldly hold index funds! Can be left to future generations. Really, I'm not kidding.
As long as investors are willing, they can hold this index fund permanently. Usually, index funds refer to specific index funds issued by stock exchanges, such as SSE 50, CSI 300 and CSI 500. Investors buy all the components of the index to build a portfolio, which reduces the investment risk brought by blind stock selection. According to the statistics in recent years, index funds outperform active funds in most cases. For investors, as long as they pay attention to risks when choosing funds and avoid fund liquidation, they can hold funds for a long time by choosing fund size and excellent fund managers.
Investing in a specific index can prevent the fund manager from affecting the overall income level of the fund because of subjective emotions, because active funds mainly aim at pursuing performance other than market performance, and rely entirely on the fund manager's ability in stock selection, which will inevitably be affected by the fund manager's personal emotions, leading to fluctuations in fund performance. Index funds are passive funds. Seeking consistency with the index trend of the market will avoid excessive interference from human factors, but the return of index funds in the bull market will be better, and the investment of index funds will be more stable than that of passive funds.
1, short-term trend of A-share bears.
The investment index fund mainly depends on the overall trend of the stock market to determine the income. Although the A-share market has been in the process of slow rise in the past 30 years, it is a stage of rising more and falling less in most periods. If the investment index fund chooses to hold it for a long time, it will have income, but it is difficult to obtain higher income.
In other words, it is best for investment index funds to have a long bull market in the stock market. Only the basic people can really get high returns. If the long-term bear market such as A-shares is dominated by short bull market, the income from holding index funds permanently may not be able to outperform other investment products.
2. Choosing a fund is also crucial.
It is very important to choose a fund for medium and long-term fund investment. After all, investors need to avoid the risk of liquidation for long-term investment. Coupled with the long-term weakness of the stock market, it is best to maintain the way of selling high and sucking low to operate the market changes that are more suitable for the China stock market.
Choosing a fund needs to consider the size of the fund. From the past performance, we can know the ability of the fund manager, so that we can have a better grasp of the selection of index funds, and it is also suitable for avoiding investment losses caused by problems in the fund in medium and long-term investment.
Therefore, investment index funds can be held permanently, but the A-share market itself is a slow-rising market. If you want to invest in the stock market, try to keep a high-selling and low-sucking process, the return of index funds may be higher, and a long-term holding idea may not be able to outperform some high-risk wealth management products.
Index funds can be held permanently, but we should pay attention to three aspects: first, choose index funds; Second, insist on continuous investment; The third is to leave the package in time.
Index funds can be held for a long time, but they still have to make a choice. After all, we invest in index funds in order to get good returns and realize the appreciation of wealth. Therefore, before deciding to invest in index funds, it is still necessary to choose index funds.
The choice of index funds can be considered from the following aspects: first, the scale of index funds, that is, the size, the risk of liquidation is small. The second is the ability of index fund managers. From its previous performance, look at the investment ability of managers. After all, the fund manager manages your assets. The third is to see whether the stocks held by index funds are cyclical companies and so on.
Index fund investment must be held, so the probability of obtaining income will be much greater. However, in the process of holding, we must combine fixed investment with purchase.
Fixed investment can save our energy, thus dispersing the whole risk, and can also largely avoid the possibility of one-time investment and stepping on a high net worth. Subscription is an artificial investment when the net value of the fund falls, so as to reduce the cost and lay the foundation for the later income.
You should also pay attention to the holding of index funds. Fund investment is for income. Although you can get higher returns by holding it all the time, if you don't make a profit, what you see is only the change of the number in the fund account, and it doesn't increase your assets.
It can make investors more informed because their assets are increasing. On the other hand, it can also exercise their character and prevent greed. This is the top priority of your financial investment, so you must pay attention to it.
In short, index funds can be held for a long time, but you should pay attention to the above three aspects so that your index funds can invest or get higher returns.
The reason for this is the following：
Index funds can't be held permanently and can't maximize their returns.
First, let's analyze it from several aspects: 1. As we all know, the China stock market has always been short-lived, with a cycle of five or six years, in which there are high points and low points. If you hold index funds for a long time and don't buy at high points, any stock market can't be a stock market that only rises and doesn't fall, only falls and doesn't rise. Then you can maximize the benefits! 2. The income of a good index fund is directly related to the investment management of the fund. If it is found that the management level of the investment index fund manager is limited, or the excellent fund manager of the fund will be transferred, we will sell the fund at an appropriate time to avoid risks. 3. Index funds are generally sold at corresponding high points according to a fluctuation cycle of the stock market, and then bought at appropriate low points to maximize returns.
In the medium and long term, investors tend to consider long-term holding or band operation, and different choices will bring different returns on investment.
Holding index funds for a long time refers to operating with a certain expected profit target. Before selling, there will be no selling operation except for the fixed investment of the fund. Band operation index fund refers to the investment mode that investors sell when the price is high and buy the fund when the price is low.
Long-term holding seems to be held from beginning to end, and there is no need to choose the timing and timing of the market. Whether it's a bull market or a bear market, you just need to keep an eye on the net value of your index fund. Riding an ox to see a bear feels that it is better to match the index fund to vote. Buy with fixed funds at a fixed time every month, set the profit point of an index fund, and then choose to clear the warehouse and sell after reaching the expected profit target in the future.
Band operation requires higher trading level of individual investors. Not only should we pay attention to the trend of the fund for a period of time, but also whether the overall trend can continue to rise. The comprehensive performance of various factors will determine investors' judgment on the trading of index funds. Riding a bull and watching a bear feels like a stock doing T all day, rushing to sell, and buying when it falls. However, once investors reverse the operation, the actual account cost will increase a lot, and after rushing to sell, index funds will continue to rise.
Nothing in this world is eternal, especially when investing, we must pay attention to flexible response. Just like if you invest in a company, the company may operate well in the first year 10, and then the era of excellent performance will end in the second year 10 because of changes in industrial policies or loopholes in management. If you still follow the old way, you will definitely lose money. After all, the mountains are turning.
Among all fund investments, index funds are undoubtedly the best. The focus is on passive investment index, which is different from active funds and does not directly participate in listed companies, thus avoiding the sudden impact of black swan on the net worth of some listed companies. I often see that the net value of some active funds suddenly drops sharply, and sometimes the decline is far greater than the index. The core reason is that the active fund stepped on mines, resulting in a sharp drop in net worth.
Index funds do not have such problems. First, they avoid fundamental issues, but index funds may not be able to hold them for a long time. Because they participate in index investment, they can only make money by participating in such funds when the index is rising or in a bull market. If the market is in a bear market or plummets, the index fund will fall a lot, and you will suffer the same loss. From this point of view, participating in index funds must grasp the band opportunities. At the same time, when the market falls, we should take the initiative to lighten up our positions in time. Of course, if the band is really not well grasped, it is also a very good strategy for the fund to vote.
Index funds can be held for a long time!
Because for most indexes, their ups and downs are actually due to the contribution of those index stocks and heavyweights, and for these index stocks and heavyweights, they are carefully selected, so they can maintain a trend that runs through the bulls and bears.
Because most institutions and value investors will invest in value stocks and growth stocks that contribute upward slope, trading investors mainly participate in cyclical stocks and theme stocks that contribute volatility. Then for index stocks and heavyweights, almost all of them choose leading enterprises and leading representatives as reference standards from high-value and high-growth stocks.
Different investors participate in different stocks because of different investment ideas. Class stabilization funds, insurance funds, social security funds, foreign-funded institutions, Public Offering of Fund and Sunshine private equity funds mainly follow the concept of value investment and participate in value stocks and growth stocks. The more conservative the investment style, the higher the proportion of participating in value investment. Trading funds, mainly retail investors and hot money, mainly participate in theme stocks and cyclical stocks. Therefore, value stocks are more stable and more resistant to bear markets.
Data display:
Since the beginning of 2000, the Shanghai Composite Index has risen by 1 18%, with an annualized increase of only 4.08%. The volatility of the market is extremely obvious.
From 2005 to 2007, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by about 500%, 20 14-20 15 years, and the Shanghai Composite Index rose by about 160%. In 2005, 2008, 20 13 and 20 19, the bottom of the Shanghai Composite Index moved up one after another. The interaction between the structure of A-share investors and stock types is the reason why the index fluctuates greatly and the center moves up slowly.
But it is best to have a phased layout strategy! Take A shares as an example. The A-share index is a parallel line with an upward trend, and most of the bottom areas of the bear market are bottomed out on this support line! Therefore, buying index funds should also choose the layout of batch, time-sharing and bargain-hunting in the bear market cycle, rather than buying in the bull market cycle or even the bull market high point.
In this way, your investment income will be more, and the time to enjoy the income will come faster! !
Again, whether you buy big white horse stocks or blue chip stocks, you don't buy them unconditionally. If the increase is too large or enters a bear market, these high-quality stocks will still fall. Therefore, investors should follow suit and buy good stocks at low prices, not at high prices!
This is also the truth for index funds! ! !
Every index fund has its golden life.
Index funds such as Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index and SSE 50 all hold outstanding domestic listed companies. However, big companies have the common problems of big companies. Large companies usually grow slowly for various reasons. In addition, large companies also have a lot to do with the economic environment. Holding index funds enjoys a weighted average return, and long-term holding is a low return on investment.
Of course, index funds are constantly eliminating constituent stocks and increasing constituent stocks.
I hope BAT and TMD can join the constituent stocks as soon as possible.
Investment must be based on your own financial resources and characteristics, radical or steady, as long as it suits you.
Some only require higher returns than banks, while others only require higher returns than P2P. If stability is required and big risks are avoided, index funds are usually relatively stable. Of course, eggs should be divided into several baskets, and index funds can be a combination.