The third quarter report was released on June 30th, 2008, and the company's revenue from June 65438 to September was 95.382 billion yuan, up by 35.47% year-on-year (as the company entered a large number of dry bulk assets at the end of last year, the data should be converted according to the proportion at the end of 2007, the same below), realizing a net profit of197.1200 million yuan.

2. Our analysis and judgment

Since the company completed the acquisition of dry bulk assets of the group company at the end of 2007, the company's income and performance changed greatly in the first three quarters of 2008. The comparative data of this period includes the comparison of dry bulk data in 2007. Due to the fluctuation of BDI index, in the first three quarters, although revenue and net profit increased by 36.5% and 37% respectively year-on-year, there was a significant decline compared with the previous quarter, with revenue and net profit being -2.69% and -30.76% respectively. Among them, the profit of main business decreased by 8%, and the investment income decreased by 49%, which made the total profit decrease by 365,438+0% and the net profit decrease by 365,438+0%.

We believe that in the third quarter of 2008, China's import and export trade dropped to 20% year-on-year, and the growth of the company's traditional business container transportation slowed down. The main reason for the sharp decline in the company's performance in the third quarter is that the international ocean transportation price index BDI has fallen from a high level, which has led to a sharp drop in transportation prices, which is the main reason for the decline in the company's income and performance.

What deserves our great attention is that the average BDI index in 2007 was 7068 points, in the first half of this year it was 8556 points, in July-September 2008 it was 7 123 points, and in June 2008 it was 65438-1897 points.

The price of ocean transportation has plummeted, and BDI has dropped by more than 92% from 1 1739 on May 20, 2008 in just five months. This situation is rare in history, which shows that the demand for dry bulk cargo transportation in the global economy has suddenly declined, and the global economy will inevitably adjust in the next few years, and the demand for dry bulk cargo transportation will inevitably decline. Although BDI has fallen excessively at present, it is also a reflection of the market ahead of schedule.

3. Investment advice

We believe that the company's business relies heavily on dry bulk cargo business, and the global economic slowdown has a greater impact on the shipping industry. It is inevitable that the marine transportation industry will enter the adjustment period in the next few years. After the short-term plunge, BDI will gradually stabilize, but it is difficult to return to the high above 6000 points. It is estimated that the average BDI in 2008 was 6500 points, while the average BDI in 2009 was 3000 points. If the BDI pessimistic estimate reaches the average level of 2000 points (cost), it will have a great impact on the company's future income and profits.

We predict that the company's revenue in 2008 -2009 will be1/kloc-0.02 billion yuan and 86.8 billion yuan respectively, up by/kloc-0.7% and -2 1% respectively, and its net profit will be 20.3 billion yuan and 3.3 billion yuan respectively, up by 6% and down by 85% respectively. Therefore, companies engaged in bulk cargo transportation are facing the impact of a sharp drop in transportation prices. In 2009, a large number of new ships will be launched, which will lead to greater oversupply. BDI may return to the level of five years ago, and we downgraded the company rating from "cautious recommendation" to "neutral".