China's stock market: A complete list of leading stocks with the most potential to increase by 10 times in 2021. The automotive industry's recovery is accelerating, and the trend of passenger car consumption upgrades, personalization, electrification, intelligence, and lightweight is becoming increasingly apparent.
At the same time, the comparative advantages of Chinese manufacturing in the world are increasingly obvious, and the global substitution trend of parts and new energy vehicles is clear.
In addition, the consumption upgrade and electrification of two-wheeled vehicles have rapidly increased the penetration rate, bringing new growth areas.
1. Passenger cars: The demand recovery trend is clear, and it is expected to double growth in 2021. Since the growth rate of wholesale sales of passenger cars turned positive in May 2020, the industry's economic recovery has become clear.
It is expected that the growth rate of domestic passenger car sales will rebound to more than 15% in 2021, mainly benefiting from: the low base in the first quarter of 2020 due to the new crown epidemic and the peak trade-up period in 2021.
According to statistics from the Automobile Dealers Association, 3-6 years is the first peak period for consumers to purchase a new car. Around 2017 is the peak period for China's passenger car sales, both reaching about 24 million units. It is expected to give
2021 will bring significant replacement demand.
In terms of consumption structure, in addition to electrification and intelligence, it is expected that consumption upgrades and personalization will become increasingly obvious. Luxury brands, personalization, and independent brands with a fast pace of innovation are expected to continue to increase their market share.
2. Commercial vehicles: The high prosperity is expected to continue, and product upgrades and the switch to National VI will bring new opportunities. The high prosperity is expected to continue, and product upgrades and the switch to National VI will bring new opportunities.
It is expected that the heavy-duty truck industry will continue to hit a record high in 2020, reaching 1.6 million units; taking into account the continued strict implementation of the National III phase-out and over-limit and overload management, it is expected that the number of heavy-duty trucks will still remain at a high level of more than 1.3 million units in 2021.
At the same time, taking into account the increase in bicycle value brought about by the National VI emission upgrade and the enforcement of safety regulations, as well as the optimization of the industry's competitive landscape, it is expected that the profits of leading companies in the industry will still maintain positive growth.
In addition, considering the full implementation of National VI emissions, it is expected to bring significant growth and investment opportunities to the National VI industrial chain and leading companies in the light truck industry.
The worst time for the passenger car industry has passed. It is expected that the industry's prosperity will rebound significantly in 2021, benefiting from the continuation of new energy subsidies, the start of hydrogen fuel cell demonstration operations, the Beijing Winter Olympics, etc.
3. Parts and components: As global substitution proceeds, there are sectoral investment opportunities. Along with the electrification and intelligence of automobiles, it has brought a significant increase in the value of bicycle accessories to the parts supply chain. Especially in the field of automotive electronics, the penetration rate has accelerated.
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At the same time, global car companies are faced with the contradiction between increasing investment in electric smart R&D and declining sales profits, and have turned to Chinese supply chain companies to seek space for cost reduction.
In addition, this year’s COVID-19 epidemic has accelerated the process of global substitution by Chinese companies.
It is recommended to focus on three main lines of investment: 1) Customer growth, mainly around customers with increased downstream market share, such as Tesla industry chain, new power industry chain, etc.
2) Product increment mainly revolves around products with rapidly increasing volume of bicycle accessories, such as the automotive electronics industry chain, etc.
3) Increase in share, such as outstanding Chinese parts companies whose global market share continues to increase.
Based on the three investment main lines sorted out above, combined with the valuation dimension, the specific targets are divided into a "nine grid" of auto parts investment.
4. Two-wheeled vehicles: Increment depends on consumption upgrade, and stock depends on pattern optimization. With the improvement of residents’ consumption power, two-wheeled vehicles are gradually transforming from travel tools to leisure and entertainment products, which not only brings about an increase in ASP (bicycle selling price), but also
It is expected that the penetration rate will continue to increase from the current less than 3% to more than 10%, driving the industry to continue to grow rapidly.
At the same time, for the existing electric bicycle market of about 40 million units, it is expected that with the implementation of the new national standards, the industry structure will continue to be optimized. At present, we estimate that about 40% of the industry is still the tail supply of local small businesses. Considering this part of the supply
, it is expected that the market share of leading companies will continue to increase, and the advantages of scale will become increasingly obvious.
In addition, China's electric two-wheelers are globally competitive, and overseas markets are expected to be the next long-term source of growth.
The investment strategy predicts that domestic passenger car sales growth will rebound to more than 15% in 2021, and the industry's electrification and intelligence trends will accelerate, maintaining the industry's "outperform" rating.
In the context of the total industry volume and the performance of electric intelligence, the key points are: 1) Passenger car sector, look at the sector beta in the short term, the model cycle in the medium term, and electric intelligence in the long term.
Great Wall Motors, Changan Automobile, Guangzhou Automobile Group, SAIC Motor, BYD, etc.
2) Commercial vehicle sector, product upgrades and new opportunities brought by National VI switch.
Weichai Power, China National Heavy Duty Truck, Yutong Bus, etc.
3) The parts and components sector closely follows the three logics of Tesla’s industrial chain, automotive electronics, and global share improvement.