On April 12, the Housing Fund Management Center of the Central State Agencies issued a new policy, clarifying that employees should "recognize the house and subscribe for the loan" for provident fund loans for second homes. The down payment ratio for the second home was adjusted to a minimum of 60% and a maximum loan of 600,000 yuan.

"Daily Economic News" reporters noticed that since January this year, provident fund policies have been frequently introduced in many places. Cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Yangzhou have all released new provident fund policies in the first quarter.

For example, in Beijing, not long before the above-mentioned policy was announced, Beijing had issued the policy of “relaxing the scope of housing purchases in other places by the municipal provident fund.”

And it has been revealed that some state-owned banks have released relevant news about "focusing on supporting mortgages in first-tier and some second-tier cities."

According to Li Zhen, senior analyst at 58 Anjuke Real Estate Research Institute, the proportion of state-managed provident funds is relatively small, and its essence is just a policy supplement and does not affect the general trend.

But this further illustrates that the current policies and market conditions are fully implementing the policy guidance of "city-specific policies" and "differentiated loans".

In fact, since March, the real estate market in first-tier cities and some second-tier cities has begun to pick up.

Ding Zuyu, CEO of E-House Enterprise Group, judged that the current three factors of capital, policy expectations, and bank credit are working together, and the first- and second-tier markets will continue to pick up.

The new home market in first-tier cities is the first to pick up. In the past quarter, the domestic real estate market has begun to feel warm, especially in first- and second-tier cities.

CRIC data shows that in March, new home sales across the country increased slightly by 9% year-on-year, with first-tier cities seeing the most significant growth, faster than the overall market level; second-tier cities experienced "mixed gains and losses."

Similarly, the "Real Estate Market Summary Report for the First Quarter of 2019" from 58.com and Anjuke shows that the transaction volume of commercial residential buildings in first-tier cities increased by about 30% year-on-year in the first quarter, with the transaction area in Beijing more than doubling year-on-year.

Judging from the average transaction price, housing prices in Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou have fluctuated, and monthly transaction prices in Shenzhen have declined steadily, but are still rising year-on-year.

According to monitoring data from the 58 Anjuke Real Estate Research Institute in the first quarter of 2019, affected by the Spring Festival holiday in January this year, users’ demand for new homes was low. In February and March, users’ enthusiasm for house hunting increased and the market heat picked up.

In contrast, third- and fourth-tier cities have experienced “more declines than rises”, and differentiation has intensified.

Ding Zuyu suggested that real estate investment activities should not only look at the big cycle, that is, the national real estate cycle, but also pay attention to the small cycles of each city, because the small cycles determine the fate of each project.

Jones Lang LaSalle pointed out that the monetary environment will improve in 2019, but the property market control policies in first-tier cities will continue.

Although the possibility of comprehensively relaxing property market policies is low, first-tier cities may usher in policy fine-tuning to stabilize the market as economic instability increases.

Bank credit is tilted towards the first- and second-tier property markets. Behind the recovery of the first- and second-tier property markets, a reporter from the "Daily Economic News" noticed that a state-owned bank's 2018 annual report released in early 2019 stated its position on mortgages: focusing on supporting mortgages in first-tier and some second-tier cities.

Be cautious about third- and fourth-tier cities.

According to Rong360 data, mortgage interest rates have reached their highest point in recent years since November 2018, and have since begun to decline.

As of February 2019, first-tier mortgage loan interest rates have dropped by 11bp in first-tier cities, 16bp in second-tier cities, and only 5bp in third- and fourth-tier cities.

At the same time, research from Industrial Securities pointed out that at this point in time, the fundamentals of real estate in first- and second-tier cities will trend upward; the current recovery in first- and second-tier cities is not a phase, but a trend, and is the starting point of a new cycle.

The above-mentioned research believes that banks will trend to increase mortgage allocations in first- and second-tier cities, commercial banks' stance on mortgages in first- and second-tier cities will undergo major turning point changes, there will be structural differences in the trends in mortgage interest rates between first- and second-tier cities and third- and fourth-tier cities, and the speed of leveraged lending in first- and second-tier cities will appear.

Inflection point changes.

The dominant logic behind this is that too much low-quality leverage has been applied to third- and fourth-tier cities in the past few years. At this point in time, banks should make a structural reversal of the leverage attitude of first- and second-tier and third- and fourth-tier cities. This is a trend.

According to reports, since October 2018, especially since 2019, the lending cycle in first- and second-tier cities has been significantly shortened.

In 2018, the overall mortgage quota of banks was tight, and the lending speed was slow, generally around 3 to 6 months.

Since this year, mortgage quotas have been significantly looser, and loans can be issued in most cities within 7 working days.

Analysts from Industrial Bank said: "The dominant logic behind this change in the bank's attitude is that after the economic growth center declines, banks have a long-term preference for mortgages. From a microstructure perspective, first- and second-tier home purchase customers can be mainly divided into first-time home purchase needs and

Replacement demand, the leverage added to these two groups is generally safer than the leverage for home purchases in third- and fourth-tier cities. "The upward trend in the homebuyer confidence index corresponds to the increase in transaction volume in the property market in first- and second-tier cities, and the homebuyer confidence index is also rising.

Simultaneously in an upward trend.