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Why did the ruble depreciate? What is the impact of the devaluation of the ruble on China? What impact does the Russian ruble plunge have on China?
From: Network Date: 2022-05-08
Why did the ruble depreciate? Now Europe, America and the United States are imposing economic sanctions on Russia, causing the ruble to dive. Due to the continuous depreciation of the ruble, Russian importers need to pay more local currency when executing the trade contracts signed in the early stage, so the cases of Russian importers' delay and default in bilateral trade are also increasing. The higher the degree of currency depreciation, the greater the damage to Russian importers, and the lower the willingness and ability to pay for goods, which may transfer the losses to China export enterprises. When the importing country's currency depreciates sharply, it will often lead to a high incidence of buyer's default. According to a person from Guangdong Branch of China Export Credit Insurance Corporation, due to the delay in payment by Russian buyers, a number of policyholders have reported the loss to China Export Credit Insurance Corporation, and the accumulated losses have reached millions of dollars. Northeast China has always been a prosperous place for Sino-Russian trade. However, the ruble that traders say can't stop at all can't form a stable exchange rate expectation, which makes the export enterprises in Northeast China at a loss. The extremely unstable ruble exchange rate has brought great business risks. If the ruble depreciates to a certain extent and the trade situation reaches a new balance, importers and exporters can also talk about business based on the new balance point. However, the current situation is that the ruble is extremely unstable and it is impossible to make clear expectations. This state of continuous fluctuation has a great influence on both sides. At the same time, the devaluation of the ruble not only invisibly raised the commodity prices in China, but also reduced the purchasing power and demand of China residents. At present, prices in the Russian Far East are also rising. Even if the price of crude oil drops sharply, the price of refined oil in Russia is still rising. The rising prices in Russia's Far East have affected market consumption, so there will be problems in the export of products in Northeast Russia. But at present, Mudanjiang's exports to Russia are mainly vegetables and fruits. These are all necessities of life, so although they have an impact, they are not particularly obvious. Car companies in China are affected. In addition to exporters of agricultural products, the collapse of the ruble has also affected automobile enterprises in China. Geely Automobile recently issued a profit warning, saying that due to the devaluation of the ruble, the profit rate of core business in the second half of the year was lower than expected, and it is estimated that the net profit attributable to shareholders of the company will drop by about 50% in 20 14. Bank of Communications International estimates that Geely's exchange loss may be between 500 million and 600 million yuan. Relatively speaking, Geely will be more affected by the devaluation of the ruble. Geely uses rubles to settle accounts in Russia. At the same time, pay back the money after the dealer sells the car. The time difference in the middle will lead to exchange losses.
The devaluation of the ruble is beneficial to China's strategic oil reserves, but it may have a negative impact on China's exports. On the one hand, China is a big oil consumer, and its dependence on foreign countries is above 58%. The decline in international crude oil prices is conducive to oil imports and strategic oil reserves. In addition, the decline in international oil prices can also reduce the overall energy cost, delay the pressure of imported inflation, improve the real purchasing power of residents, and help improve consumption and corporate profits. The drop in oil prices has given the China government more room to support resource price reform. On the other hand, the devaluation of the ruble and the Russian economic slowdown have adversely affected China's exports. In terms of quantity, the economic downturn in Russia will directly affect China's exports to Russia. According to the data of 20 14 and 10, China's exports to Russia account for about 2.3% of the total. However, because the drop in oil prices is beneficial to other energy importing countries, there will be some hedging, so the overall impact on export volume is limited.
The Russian ruble crisis is getting worse, and enterprises in China will undoubtedly be affected. In the face of the economic crisis, such as the sharp depreciation of the Russian ruble, domestic inflation and capital flight, some experts pointed out that the devaluation of the ruble has limited direct impact on China's economy, but it has caused certain losses to Russian and Chinese enterprises. Chinese businessmen can seize opportunities and open up new prospects in the crisis. The devaluation of the ruble has brought some troubles to enterprises engaged in Sino-Russian trade, and Russian enterprises' investment in China will also be negatively affected. Some enterprises in China have converted their investments into dollars and rubles. After the devaluation of the ruble, the investment amount was seriously reduced, resulting in losses. In addition, US sanctions against China may affect Russian enterprises that have cooperated with both countries. If these enterprises are involved in sanctions, they will be in a dilemma. He reminded Chinese businessmen to pay attention to the duration of the devaluation of the ruble and adjust their operations according to the relevant policies issued by the Russian government. Since the trade between China and China is mainly electromechanical, energy and raw materials, and most of them are denominated in US dollars, the direct impact of the devaluation of the ruble on China's economy is limited. He also suggested that China continue to promote Sino-Russian cooperation in the fields of energy, high-speed rail and aerospace within the existing framework. At the same time, China should seize the opportunity to promote border cooperation, development and opening up, expand the use of RMB, and accelerate the construction of the Belt and Road Initiative. Under the current situation, enterprises in China will use the earned rubles for local investment, and at the same time use rubles to buy Russian factories and Russian real estate, which can open up better prospects for the future development of enterprises in China.
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Why did the ruble depreciate? What is the impact of the devaluation of the ruble on China? Due to the continuous depreciation of the ruble, Russian importers need to pay more local currency when executing the trade contracts signed in the early stage, so the delay and default of Russian importers in bilateral trade are also increasing. The higher the currency depreciation, the greater the harm to Russian importers and the worse the willingness to pay for the goods. ...
Why did the ruble depreciate? Why did the Russian ruble depreciate wildly? The reason for the devaluation of the global foreign exchange-ruble is that Russia's economic growth has slowed down obviously, and the GDP growth rate is not as good as that expected by the United States and Russia. The Russian central bank has no intention of supporting the ruble. The Ukrainian crisis has intensified market risk sentiment.
The fundamental reason for the devaluation of the Russian ruble, why did the ruble depreciate? 20 19-08-2365438+ ...
Why did the ruble depreciate? Due to the continuous depreciation of the ruble, Russian importers need to pay more local currency when executing the trade contracts signed in the early stage, so the delay and default of Russian importers in bilateral trade are also increasing. The greater the devaluation, the greater the damage to Russian importers, and the greater the damage to their willingness and ability to pay for goods. ...
What are the reasons for the devaluation of Russian currency and ruble? -:The main reason is the sharp drop in international oil prices, followed by the extremely low domestic economic growth rate of 20 14.
Reasons for the devaluation of the ruble and its impact on China's exchange rate-:Reasons for the devaluation of the ruble: geopolitics is an important reason for the devaluation of the ruble. Russia's position in the conflict in eastern Ukraine has led to several rounds of economic sanctions imposed by western countries, which has hit Russia's economic growth in major fields such as energy, finance and national defense. Secondly, the decline in international oil prices has also aggravated the devaluation of the ruble. ...
What was the reason for the devaluation of the ruble in those years? Will there be a similar situation in RMB? Compared with other currencies, the RMB is market-oriented and flexible, and it will rebound if it falls, at least it is expected. The renminbi is not, and it has basically never been marketized. The current high position is the result of the central bank's use of foreign exchange reserves, and it is also a little loose. That's why it's hard to be flexible. ...
Why does the Russian ruble keep falling by 20 14? Mainly because of oil prices. In the middle of last year, the United States sanctioned Russia and used the advantage of oil pricing power to control the international oil price, which kept the international oil price at a low level, which led to the frustration of Russia, a major oil exporter, and the continued depreciation of the ruble. As long as the oil price remains low, the rebound of the ruble will be very limited.
What caused the Russian ruble to plummet? -:The plunge of Russian ruble mainly refers to the plunge of Russian ruble in February 20 14. The exchange rate of the US dollar against the ruble once broke through an all-time high of 80. The main reasons for the collapse are as follows: 1, the collapse of international oil prices. The analysis of oil price shows that Russia's GDP in 20 15 years may be 1.5%. ...
Why did the ruble depreciate? First, because of jim rogers's remarks, he said that the internal situation in Russia is unstable and may split, so he suggested shorting the ruble. Second, because Russia is an important exporter and relies too much on oil exports, the ruble will depreciate because oil has plummeted from 143 USD/barrel to 50 USD/barrel. To sum up, the ruble will depreciate.
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