The situation of funds and stocks is very pessimistic. Now, when the investment market is not stable, it is not recommended for friends to intervene for the time being. They should wait and see, waiting for a better opportunity to intervene. Most funds are stock funds, and the momentum of the stock market is related to the rise and fall of the fund's net value. Please pay more attention to the development of the stock market. Taking advantage of the weak market rebound that is about to end, selling funds will make your losses smaller. According to statistics from the capital inflow and outflow statistics system, last week's main funds continued to have a relatively large net outflow. If the main funds continue to wait and see on the sidelines in the future, With large-scale intervention, it is easy for the market outlook to break 3,000. If the bull-bear dividing point of 3,300 points cannot be recovered in a short period of time, the stock market can default to a bear market. The bottom is a fall, not a prediction. It is very irrational to blindly think that it will not fall again after falling by 50%. When confidence is close to collapse, will every small rebound lead to a bigger stop? This is a trend. Before the amount of funds is enough to support the stock market, and before confidence has been restored, all dip hunting behavior is crazy, taking huge risks, and going against the odds. The risk of moving with the trend is slightly greater than the risk of moving with the trend. It is necessary to analyze the possible market trends in the market outlook based on the current specific situation. When the main funds are panicking to stop losses, it is unrealistic for retail investors to expect to copy the bottom. The bottom is copied by the main force, not by retail investors. Before the market bottoms out, it is not recommended that friends get involved in the stock market for the time being. Safety first. Friends who are full of positions are advised to reduce their positions to 1/2 when there is a rebound to free up funds before they can take the initiative. Those who are already light in positions (less than 1/3) can hold shares and wait and see. Those with short positions are temporarily holding the currency to wait and see, waiting for the main force. It is safer to intervene on a large scale when a real bottom is formed. Rumors of large-scale bargain hunting in special fund accounts that had been circulated by stock commentators and media before the market encouraged retail investors to bravely buy dips were once again shattered. According to Xiao Jian, President of E Fund, specific client asset management is mainly about pursuing absolutely safe returns. In the face of today’s complex market It is especially important to control the environment, control risks, and grasp the timing and rhythm of investment. The implication is that the current market risk is unacceptable for special account funds, and there will be no large-scale intervention in the market for the time being. This can be considered a small negative news for the stock market. The government has changed the income tax collected in advance for the real estate industry from once a year to once every quarter, which has once again increased the financial pressure on real estate companies. In the face of the already tight financial pressure, this will have an uncertain impact on real estate companies. Larger real estate companies, such as Vanke, may not be greatly affected by the impact. However, the future price and earnings situation of small real estate companies in the second and third tiers is not optimistic. The main funds' foresight to withdraw from this sector in advance indeed shows the advantage of information. However, in a weak state, a small piece of negative news may be amplified several times due to panic psychology. Retail investors who want to buy the bottom are advised to be cautious when doing so. When large funds are cautious, retail investors must remain vigilant. The bottom is caused by falling and not predicted. 3300 is basically the sign of bull and bear. If it can be held, there is still hope. If it cannot be held, it will not recover in a short period of time and continue to accelerate the decline. If the main force still does not enter the market, the market will be over. Although bottom-hunting funds caused the stock index to rebound quickly today, the volume in the morning was still low, and the enthusiasm for capital participation was very low. At the close, the market continued to sell off with a panic mentality. If the main force in the next two trading days is still in a wait-and-see state and does not intervene on a large scale, it will not be able to lead Huge volume breakthrough, the market will continue to dip into the 2800~3000 area. Friends, please control your positions. The rebound is an opportunity to reduce your positions. If the volume can continue to increase in a straight line in the future, you can hold it temporarily (it is a bit difficult). It is recommended to hold the money in your hands for the time being, as the market has not yet determined its direction. Please pay close attention to the trends of main funds. They are the key factors that determine the final development direction of the market. If the main funds continue to maintain the shipping trend, 2800 points will be only a matter of time. Only after the current crisis is over will the market have a chance to rise to 5,000 points. The real reason that caused the main force to ship a lot before was the huge non-unlocking of large and small funds, and the huge malicious additional issuance. It was difficult for the main force to take over the funds. In order to prevent the unblocked funds from standing guard, the only choice was to get out before they came out. These two substantive problems If it is not resolved, the main worries will not be resolved, and the rebound should be treated with a rebound mentality. The previous news from the media and stock commentators was that institutions have been building large-scale positions and calling on retail investors to buy the bottom. However, the latest information on the changes in the Great Wisdom Fund shows that since the continuous rebound, the proportion of institutions’ holdings has not only not increased, but has continued to reduce their positions. However, the number of retail investors buying the bottom continues to increase, which means that the current market situation is caused by the main force stabilizing large-cap stocks, creating the illusion that the market is about to reverse, and attracting retail investors to pick up the selling chips of the main force. Please be cautious among retail investors.

Two pieces of information appeared in the market, which gave OTC funds a glimmer of hope for a rebound in the stock market. First, it was rumored that the China Securities Regulatory Commission issued a secret order to securities firms to maintain market stability. Summary: 1. Pay close attention to market changes and establish a sound emergency mechanism ( This news does not have short-term feasibility. A sound mechanism cannot be formed in one big drop. The time period is too long, and the water in the distance cannot solve the fire in the near future.) 2. Carry out in-depth investor education and provide investors with more and better professional services. Service (as the risk education market has made investors feel that this will not bring about the restoration of investment confidence, providing professional services is a very empty, purely perfunctory, routine language) 3. Take effective measures to ensure the security of information technology systems ( This is the most basic condition that securities companies should provide investors) 4. Strengthen the security of offices and business premises to effectively prevent the occurrence of various emergencies (it is nothing more than to prevent investors who have been deeply trapped from losing confidence after their confidence collapses. Vent it out in an irrational way. I personally don’t think it will cause the stock market to rise sharply. It can’t be beaten. It is purely to prevent investors.) 5. Properly handle petitions and complaints and effectively maintain social stability (this will only disappoint investors) It is a way to vent emotions, and it is also to avoid excessive investment behavior when the dissatisfaction cannot be vented.) Although this so-called secret order has been mentioned to maintain market stability, there is no good news that can really stimulate the current stock market. It is just a series of measures to deal with investor dissatisfaction, and its positive impact on the stock market can basically be ignored. 2. State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission: It is recommended that "non-profit companies, large and small" should not reduce their holdings, and said: "We have a commitment, so don't worry about reducing the holdings of state-owned shares." 1. Strengthen the dynamic supervision of state-owned shares (whether it is to prevent illegal operations, insider trading, profit transfer and other illegal operations) The occurrence of this behavior still strengthens the dynamic monitoring of the shares of listed companies held by the transfer of state-owned shares, and does not change the general idea of ????the country's policies on large and small non-profits. As long as there are no violations, you can cash out normally. It has no meaning and is just superficial) 2 , Exposing the blind speculation on the subject of restructuring (without addressing the most urgent problems of large and small non-profits that need to be solved now) 3. The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission recommends that "big and small non-profits" do not reduce their holdings (since the recommendation does not have mandatory measures, it will not affect the weak status of large and small non-profits) (Premier Wen once said in front of reporters that the government will pay attention to the stock market, but there is no substantive policy, just After making a verbal promise, the stock market continued to fall at an accelerated pace. The key is that this sentence is perfunctory to retail investors. Since there is a promise, we investors don’t know what the promise is!) The above so-called good news has temporarily aroused expectations that the government may intervene in the market. , temporarily stabilized people's hearts, but because it was all insignificant news, it would not have a substantial effect on preventing the reduction of large and small non-holdings. The main force still has not reached its destination. Therefore, if the government's measures to intervene in the market fail in the future, panic selling will again occur. possible, please pay attention to prevent the risk of another sharp drop. It is indeed a very contradictory question as to whether to bail out the market. If the government bails out the market, stamp duty is a powerful medicine, which will give institutions the opportunity to increase sales again. The stock market may die faster after the institutions are finished selling out, and then the market will really be in trouble. The full set is for retail investors. Now the government is also in conflict. What we need to do now is to save ourselves and not wait for the government's rescue. Now we have to go with the trend, don’t be too long or too short, just be a slippery one. The market conditions in the past few weeks have reached a turning point in the stock market, which may determine the final market outcome of this year. The 20-day moving average that hit 3653 before the market failed again and ended with a sharp drop. After the short-term rebound of the market, we still need to pay attention to whether the 20-day moving average can bring "huge volume" to break through and stabilize. If you are not stable, pay attention to controlling your position. Only if you stand firm and fluctuate higher Only then can there be opportunities for room for improvement. The continued issuance of new shares next week will have a blood-draining effect on the stock market. In the context of continuous shrinkage of capacity, when over-the-counter funds are cautiously waiting and watching, the issuance of new shares may become a negative factor in the performance of the market in these two weeks. Previously, there were many positive rumors in the market that the country would lower stamp duty and announce stock index futures. Now it turns out that they are all false. Now it is almost certain that they are rumors created by institutions. Space Diary mentioned many indicators 6 weeks ago. Continue to be in a dangerous situation (some indicators have not been tested since July 2005, and have now been seriously penetrated to prevent the market from reversing). If the indicators cannot be repaired by gradually amplifying the upward trend with continuous volume, There may be a cold wave in the stock market in 2008. The 3300 point was easily penetrated that day. I also hope that the market will be as optimistic as my previous optimistic estimate. However, the short-term market is indeed facing a very dangerous situation, which was never encountered in 2006 or 2007.

If the stock market weakens again in the market outlook and continues to break through 3,000 points, it is recommended to control positions. The nature of this plunge caused by the main force selling blue-chip stocks in large quantities has changed a lot. The early suppression was for the purpose of exchanging shares, and Nowadays, the operating pressure of institutions is increasing under the suppression of many negative factors such as huge refinancing, inflation continuing to run at a high level, and the lifting of bans on large and small non-profits. The current main force is not just suppressing stock exchanges, but also forcing the government to sell stocks. Adjusting stamp duties and regulating negative issues such as malignant huge additional issuances and large and small discrepancies have become the main goals of the decline. This embarrassing situation often leads to unexpected situations. The bottom of the market is no longer just based on the so-called analysis experts. Past experiences with the market have been analyzed. In fact, only two conditions are needed for the bottom of the market to appear. First, the policies that major institutions want to implement are fulfilled. Second, major funds enter the market on a large scale. These two most basic conditions must be met. Using the conditions to judge whether the bottom is formed should minimize the chance of failure in buying the bottom and prevent you from copying halfway up the mountain. In the previous trading day, there was a bull-selling situation in the market, mainly short-selling by funds. This was caused by fund redemptions, which offset the benefits of new fund openings. The panic selling of funds and the panic selling of retail investors are different in nature. , which is very damaging to the market. Now there is also a serious differentiation of market target positions within institutions, which will make the fund's actions contradictory and make the market unstable. Please remember that the bottom of the market is copied by the main force, not by retail investors. It is wise to wait and see before the main force goes long in a unified manner. Money is safest when it is in your hands. Don't worry about where the bottom is. If these two conditions are not fulfilled, it is not a bottom. Some good things that don't matter are just to alleviate the decline of the stock index. In view of the huge risk at the current point, it is recommended that investors control their positions below 1/3 to cope with the current uncertainty of the market. Since the quantity and energy are not ideal, and the adjustment of stamp duty has not been implemented for the time being, it is just a rumor. , it is necessary to prevent the main force from deliberately creating it again to build momentum for increasing and reducing positions. Since the conditions have not yet appeared, please treat it cautiously with an oversold rebound. Now when there are too many uncertain factors in the market, controlling positions is to avoid risks and prevent risks. The only way to be empty! The above is purely a personal opinion, so please adopt it with caution.

Good luck