Saudi Arabia
Saudi Arabia has an area of 2.25 million square kilometers and a population of about 24 million. Saudi Arabia's oil production in 2009 was 9.7 million barrels per day, accounting for12% of the world's oil production (BP, 20 10).
(1) Political and economic risks
At present, the political situation in Saudi Arabia is basically stable, and thanks to its rich oil resources, the economic situation is good. But some international terrorist organizations may have infiltrated Saudi Arabia. King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia is 86 years old. Under the monarchy, the possibility of instability caused by regime alternation increases.
Oil industry is the main pillar of Saudi economy, and oil export has brought rich trade income to Saudi Arabia.
At present, the main economic risks facing Saudi Arabia are: Saudi economic development is greatly affected by oil trade, and the fluctuation of international oil prices will directly affect Saudi oil export revenue. In addition to the oil and gas industry, other industries in Saudi Arabia are relatively backward. Although Saudi Arabia proposes to realize a diversified economic structure, in the current Saudi economic structure, even non-oil industries such as construction, manufacturing and transportation are still dominated by the oil industry.
There are many obstacles for foreign companies to enter Saudi Arabia, especially in the field of oil and gas. Saudi Arabia allows foreign companies to register wholly-owned companies as investors, but China companies must have qualification permission after going through the registration formalities according to regulations, otherwise they have no right to participate in bidding, or even to buy tenders. Saudi Arabia collects income tax on foreigners, or business organizations in which foreigners partner with Saudis, that is, joint-stock companies, limited liability companies, branches, partners, contractors or enterprises of foreign companies. For citizens of Saudi Arabia or Gulf countries, only about 2% religious tax is levied, and no income tax is levied. Because Saudi Arabia has abundant oil trade income and sufficient capital reserves every year, it does not need foreign capital to meet domestic investment demand, so the Saudi government is weaker than other countries in attracting foreign capital.
(2) Exploration and development risks
In Saudi Arabia, oil and gas resources are owned by the state, and exploration, development, transportation and sales are monopolized by Saudi Aramco. Saudi Arabia has harsh natural and geographical conditions, most of which are deserts, rivers and lakes, and the flowing water is changeable all the year round. The arable land in Saudi Arabia is less than 2% of the whole country. Before the large-scale development of oil industry, there was basically no modern industry in Saudi Arabia.
Saudi Arabia has partially opened its post-mining processing and sales in the field of natural gas. In unexplored areas, exploration, development and production are open to foreign companies, including post-production processing. In the oil field, oil exploration and exploitation is still monopolized by Saudi Aramco, and foreign companies are not allowed to invest in oil exploration and production, nor are they allowed to acquire oil shares in proportion to their investment. However, after passing the prequalification, foreign companies can take Saudi Aramco as the owner to participate in the bidding for oil exploration and production projects. In the field of petroleum processing, Saudi Arabia is open to foreign investment, allowing foreign investors to establish oil processing plants jointly or solely.
At present, the possible ways for China to enter Saudi domestic oil and gas industry are as follows: ① EOR engineering technical service contract for old oil fields; ② Exploration and development of natural gas fields.
Iran
Iran has an area of 654.38+636,000 square kilometers and a population of about 70 million. In 2009, Iran's oil output was 4.2 million barrels per day, accounting for 5.3% of the world's total output (BP, 20 10).
(1) Political and economic risks
Iran is an Islamic Republic with theocracy. The supreme religious leader is the leader of the people throughout the country. The president is the national leader after the supreme religious leader. The current President Ahmadinejad was elected in June 2005 and re-elected in June 2009. Politically, Ahmadinejad insists on "maintaining Islamic values." In foreign policy, Ahmadinejad advocates the development of "just international relations." On the nuclear issue, he stressed that Iran has the right to master and use civilian nuclear technology, and said that Iran has no intention of developing nuclear weapons and is willing to resolve its conflict with the EU through sincere dialogue.
At present, the political situation in Iran is relatively stable.
The Iranian economy is also at greater risk. Foreign economic sanctions are the biggest obstacle to Iran's economic development. Affected by the Iranian nuclear issue, many companies terminated their cooperation with Iran. Iran's economy is highly dependent on oil, and international oil prices will have a greater impact on Iran's fiscal revenue. Although Iran is rich in oil resources, its technology is relatively backward and its refining capacity is insufficient. It is an importer of refined oil. If it is blocked internationally, Iran's economy will suffer a considerable blow. In addition, Iran's domestic economic expansion is grim, and the consumer price index rose from 1 1.7% in 2006 to 24.2% in April 2008.
Generally speaking, the Iranian government is eager for foreign investment. However, Iran's tax system is complex, foreign exchange management is strict, and the political and economic risks of investing in Iran are high.
(2) Exploration and development risks
Iran's oil and gas resources belong to the state. The main way for Iran to attract foreign investment is "repurchase". There are three main forms of Iranian repurchase contracts: oil and gas field development repurchase contract, exploration block repurchase contract and exploration and development integration repurchase contract. In this way, the contracting company bears all the investment, but it can recover the investment and financing costs and the state pays the remuneration. The main shortcomings of the repurchase contract are: first, the Iranian government has a lot of supervision and participation in the contractor's procurement activities, with many examination and approval links, long process and low procurement efficiency; Second, a high proportion of local resources is needed. It is stipulated in such contracts that the utilization of local resources should exceed a certain proportion of the total cost of project funds, which is very difficult in practice.
2.3. 1.3 Iraq
Iraq has an area of 442,000 square kilometers and a population of about 29 million. In 2009, Iraq's oil production was 2.5 million barrels per day, 2.4% higher than that in 2008, accounting for 3.2% of the world's oil production (BP, 20 10).
(1) Political and economic risks
The security situation in Iraq remains volatile. Due to the war, Iraq's oil facilities have been seriously damaged. The biggest political risk in Iraq is whether the government can prevent civil war after the complete withdrawal of American troops. Serious sectarian and ethnic conflicts in Iraq; High unemployment rate; The legal system is not perfect and the problem of corruption is outstanding; Conflicts between various interest groups tend to be violent; Kurdish separatism in the northern region.
In addition to security issues, Iraq's infrastructure is backward, and facilities such as electricity and running water are not perfect. There are many serious problems in banks and laws.
(2) Exploration and development risks
Iraq is extremely rich in oil and gas resources, and the exploration and development risks mainly come from China. Due to the security situation and financial and technical constraints, the recovery of Iraq's oil industry has been slow.
The risk of exploration and development in Iraq is also manifested in the serious differences between the Iraqi central government and the Kurdish local government in the ownership of oil resources and the distribution of interests.
2.3. 1.4 UAE
The UAE covers an area of 8.4 square kilometers and has a population of about 4.9 million. In 2009, the oil production of UAE was 2.6 million barrels per day, accounting for 3.2% of the world total (BP, 20 10).
(1) Political and economic risks
The United Arab Emirates is a loose federal country. The UAE has a stable political situation and strong policy continuity. The UAE is mainly engaged in oil production and petrochemical industry. The UAE welcomes foreign investors to enter.
165438+20091On October 26th, Dubai World, the largest state-owned investment company in Dubai, suddenly announced that it would postpone the repayment of about $4 billion of Islamic bonds due for six months, and it would restructure debts up to $59 billion with government assistance. Although the Dubai government also issued a statement that its debt support fund will begin to evaluate the funds needed for this restructuring, the above news has greatly triggered panic among global investors and the global financial market has reacted strongly. However, after the market shock, it was found that Dubai's debt crisis was limited in scale and had little impact on the UAE and the Middle East, and the financial situation of the UAE remained healthy. The economic prospects of the United Arab Emirates are still promising.
The United Arab Emirates has no special legislation governing the oil and gas industry, and each emirate has promulgated tax laws and regulations and set its own tax rate. All Emirates in the United Arab Emirates adopt royalty/tax system contracts. Except Dubai, all other Emirates have the requirement of state share participation, and the maximum share participation ratio of each emirate is 60%.
(2) Exploration and development risks
The UAE is rich in oil and gas reserves, and the risk of oil and gas development is relatively small.