1. On November 27, 2018, the author once put forward a point that if commercial banks do not establish financial management subsidiaries, they will only be able to do agency sales in the future.
However, agency sales are actually a matter of the retail or wealth management department and have nothing to do with the asset management department. This means that if a wealth management company is not established, the asset management department of commercial banks will face a gradual shrinkage and even death.
2. Now it seems that this judgment may have become a reality.
On the evening of September 7, 21st Century Business Herald reported that it had received information from relevant sources that "banks that have not established financial management companies will no longer be able to add new financial management businesses, that is, the existing scale will be locked and gradually digested."
This means that small and medium-sized banks (especially banks with low non-capital guaranteed financial management scale) will be restricted from carrying out financial management business and will gradually be guided to return to credit business and local business.
3. In fact, in the first half of this year, the regulatory authorities began to provide window guidance, requiring small and medium-sized banks to continue to reduce indirect investment business, off-site non-standard business and local financial exchange business. The background here may be because the regulatory authorities believe that small and medium-sized banks do not have the capabilities.
The ability to carry out financial management business and investment business is precisely because the investment research capabilities cannot keep up, which leads to the fact that these businesses carried out by small and medium-sized banks are essentially made into quasi-credit businesses. That is to say, the regulatory authorities believe that it is these non-credit businesses and
Off-balance sheet financial management business prevents small and medium-sized banks from focusing on their main business.
Fourth, in fact, in yesterday’s report, the Banking Industry Financial Management Manual (2021 Edition), we also stated that “the probability of banks with non-principal-guaranteed financial management scale being less than 50 billion yuan being allowed to establish financial management companies is very low.”
The reasons are roughly as follows: (1) While the regulatory authorities are promoting commercial banks to establish wealth management companies, they will also become more stringent in supervising the traditional wealth management businesses of commercial banks (for example, there are obvious differences in the sales, investment and product sides of bank wealth management and wealth management companies).
differences), especially after the transition period of the new asset management regulations, the compliance risks of financial management business within the banking system will continue to increase. Commercial banks that subsequently establish and do not establish financial management companies will also form an obvious scissor difference effect. The latter
The living space of financial management business will be continuously squeezed until it disappears.
(2) Judging from the banks that have established wealth management companies, the wealth management business of the banking system is gradually being transferred to its wealth management companies (some banks have even completed the transfer), while the wealth management business of the banking system is in a continuous shrinking stage.
The pace of shrinkage may further accelerate after the transition period of the new asset management regulations. It is expected that this trend is an industry characteristic rather than an individual case.
(3) It is actually difficult for financial management business within the banking system to escape the shadow of banks, and regulatory authorities seem to believe that only by carrying out financial management business through financial management companies can financial management business be fundamentally regulated and break the shadow banking characteristics of traditional bank financial management business.
Therefore, the policy direction after the new asset management regulations is very clear, which is to continuously compress the financial management business in the banking system and promote the transformation of wealth management companies in the direction of true asset management.
(4) Perhaps from the perspective of the financial management department, not all banks need to establish wealth management companies, and not all banks are necessary to carry out wealth management business.
For banks that cannot independently set up financial management companies, jointly establishing or conducting agency sales through banks in the region may be a last resort.
5. If the non-capital-guaranteed financial management scale of 50 billion yuan is used as a threshold, it means that there may only be 40-50 banks that eventually establish financial management companies.
(1) According to statistics (including unlisted banks), there are currently 3 banks with non-guaranteed financial management scale exceeding 2 trillion yuan (a total of 7.09 trillion yuan), and 9 banks with a scale of more than 1 trillion yuan (a total of 15.71 trillion yuan).
There are 28 banks with more than 100 billion yuan (a total of 23.10 trillion), 41 banks with more than 50 billion yuan (a total of 23.88 trillion), and 59 banks with more than 20 billion yuan.
Among them, 1. There are 9 banks with non-capital guaranteed wealth management scale exceeding one trillion yuan, namely China Merchants Bank, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Agricultural Bank of China, China Construction Bank, Industrial Bank, Bank of China, China CITIC Bank, Shanghai Pudong Development Bank and Bank of Communications.
Among them, the non-principal guaranteed financial management scale of China Merchants Bank, ICBC and Agricultural Bank of China exceeds 2 trillion, which are 2.57 trillion, 2.37 trillion and 2.15 trillion respectively.
These nine banks have all established financial management companies, and their total non-capital guaranteed financial management scale has reached 15.71 trillion yuan, accounting for 61% of the total non-capital guaranteed financial management scale.
2. The non-guaranteed wealth management scale of 19 banks is between 100 billion and 1000 billion yuan, including Bank of Shanghai, Bank of Jiangsu, Bank of Beijing, Bank of Nanjing, Bank of Hangzhou, Bank of Ningbo, Huishang Bank, Bank of Qingdao, Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank and Shanghai
There are 10 local banks including Rural Commercial Bank and 9 other national banks.