Positive effects of moderate appreciation of RMB:
It is beneficial to continue to promote the reform of exchange rate system and even financial system.
it is beneficial to solve the imbalance of foreign trade. Due to the implementation of a single exchange rate system pegged to the US dollar, China products always maintain the advantage of "cheap < P > price". Moderate and small appreciation of RMB can alleviate the contradiction of unbalanced international payments to some extent.
it is beneficial to reduce the prices of imported goods and the production costs of export enterprises mainly importing raw materials.
It is beneficial to reduce the cost of China citizens' outbound travel.
It will help domestic enterprises to improve the competitiveness of their products. Our enterprises have long occupied the international market at low prices, benefiting foreign importers. If the price is raised after appreciation, the market may be lost; Failure to raise the price may increase the loss. Therefore, we can only improve productivity and scientific and technological content, reduce costs, improve quality and enhance competitiveness.
It is beneficial to reduce the demand of foreign capital for domestic house purchase and reduce the real estate bubble.
The adverse effects of RMB's rapid appreciation are:
It will reduce the profit space of enterprises in a certain period of time, reduce their competitiveness and share in the international market, and lead to a decrease in exports.
it will intensify competition in some domestic fields. Some manufacturers of export products will join the domestic market competition, which will make the already fierce domestic market competition even more fierce.
it will lead to relative overproduction in some fields. For example, 4% ~ 6% of export commodities such as food, clothing and stationery are transferred to the domestic market, which will inevitably lead to an oversupply of products in a certain period of time.
It will aggravate the employment pressure, especially many migrant workers will lose their jobs.
It will increase the cost of foreign investment in China, and the utilization of foreign capital may show a gradual decline.
It will lead to an increase in the cost of overseas tourists traveling in the mainland, which may make them switch to other countries or regions.
For the stock market:
The impact of RMB appreciation on the stock market and futures market
Time 21-6-2 18:12 Source: Integration of every network
The impact of one or two appreciation methods on the stock market
1. Relationship between RMB and Shanghai Stock Exchange Index since the exchange rate reform
Since the exchange rate reform of RMB in July 25, the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar has continuously fallen below the 1:8 and 1:7 mark. Since the second half of 28, the exchange rate of RMB has leveled off and remained at 1:6.8. During this period, the China stock market has also gone through ups and downs. The author believes that there is a close relationship between them.
first of all, we see that the stock market has gradually stepped out of the magnificent bull market since June 25. Of course, as the market thinks, this bull market is due to the share-trading reform in 25. We don't deny that share reform is the core driving force to promote this market, but in this process, more people ignore the role of exchange reform. The RMB exchange rate first fell below the 1:8 mark, and then approached the level of 7.6. Undoubtedly, the sharp appreciation of RMB has made its own contribution to the bull market. The exchange rate reform and share reform almost appeared at the same time, which also means that there is a certain connection between them. If carefully analyzed, this round of RMB appreciation is slightly earlier than the stock market start, which also reflects that RMB appreciation has a certain precursor to the stock market start.
Secondly, until October 27, there was a positive correlation between the appreciation of RMB and the stock market trend, and there were more factors that influenced each other. But when the stock market was crazy to the extreme, that is, after the stock market reached the top on October 16, 27, the market turned sharply and plunged all the way. At this time, the pace of RMB appreciation not only did not stop, but after the stock market peaked, it accelerated and rose to April of the following year. After April, the pace of RMB appreciation weakened until it leveled off. From this, we can also see that in the process of the bear market, the reaction of the stock market is obviously earlier than that of the RMB exchange rate, and the stock market has a certain turning point to guide the RMB exchange rate.
finally, let's analyze the performance of the stock market when the RMB exchange rate appreciates moderately. From the second half of 28 to the present, the RMB exchange rate has not changed much, basically maintaining at the level of 6.8, and is in the process of moderate appreciation. Compared with the previous ups and downs, the stock market in this period undoubtedly showed a moderate upward trend. From the time point of view, the inflection point of RMB exchange rate leveling appeared in July 28, while the stock market stabilized and rebounded in October 28, which once again showed that before the arrival of the bull market, the performance of RMB exchange rate had certain leading characteristics on the stock market.
on the whole, the performance of the stock market and the performance of the RMB exchange rate are mutually traction. In a bull market, the reaction of RMB exchange rate is earlier than that of the stock market, but in a bear market, the opposite is true, and the reaction of the stock market is earlier than that of RMB exchange rate. In addition, the appreciation of RMB has a positive effect on the stock market in the short term, and the inflow of speculative capital will promote the stock market to a certain extent. However, there is a critical value of RMB against the US dollar. It is not easy to determine whether the critical value is 1:5 or 1:6, but one thing is certain, that is, if the RMB continues to appreciate, a series of chain reactions will occur, and the impact on the real economy will inevitably be transmitted to the capital market, which will have a negative impact on the stock market at that time.
2。 Impact of a one-time appreciation of 1% on the stock market
If a one-time appreciation of 1% is adopted, it will have an impact on investors' psychology, and investors will take a wait-and-see attitude first to further analyze the future trend of RMB. This phenomenon is manifested in the stock market, that is, the long and short sides enter a stalemate, and once the market reaches a * * * understanding, investors will form a desire to make up psychologically and technically, which may change the unilateral upward trend. As a result, hot money's expectation of RMB appreciation becomes cautious, and their enthusiasm for investing in China market will quickly cool down, while hot money that has previously entered the domestic securities market for arbitrage will quickly cash out, and then the stock market will suffer a certain impact and the stock price will fall. For example, in Japan after the sharp appreciation of the Japanese yen in 1985 and Taiwan Province after the sharp appreciation of the Taiwan dollar in 1989, their stock markets both experienced the process that hot money pushed them up and then fell sharply. However, the stock markets will not fall blindly, but will gradually stabilize and rebound later. A sharp appreciation of RMB will benefit some stocks, such as real estate and commercial real estate, airports, ports, railways and other infrastructure or non-trading real estate industries with relative monopoly, as well as aviation sector, and individual power and telecom operation sectors that import foreign large-scale power equipment or telecom infrastructure equipment, because a sharp appreciation of RMB will reduce the debt scale of those enterprises that have a large part of liabilities for foreign loans, and the net profit of enterprises will increase accordingly.
3。 The impact of a small gradual appreciation or a one-time appreciation of 3%-5% on the stock market
Whether it is a one-time appreciation of 3%-5% or a slow and small appreciation, it will strengthen the international market's expectation of a long-term steady appreciation of the RMB, and they will enter the mainland of China through the foreign exchange market, the stock market and other capital markets, pushing up the asset prices in the mainland of China. The inflow of overseas funds, coupled with the interaction of domestic private capital, will undoubtedly bring long-term bullish influence to the stock price. Judging from the current trend of Shanghai and Shenzhen 3 in China, a convergence triangle has been formed in form, and the price shows signs of upward breakthrough. Judging from the trend of securities after RMB appreciation in the past, it further increases the possibility of its upward breakthrough.
second, the impact of two ways of appreciation on the futures market
1. The impact of a 1% appreciation on the futures market
The impact of a sharp appreciation of RMB on the futures market is mainly reflected in several important import and export varieties, among which soybeans, rubber, copper and steel are the most affected. The appreciation of RMB is beneficial to import, not to export, and will put pressure on the domestic futures market price in the short term. Soybean, copper, rubber and other varieties are highly dependent on imports, and the appreciation of RMB will have a greater negative impact on these varieties. However, according to historical statistics, on July 21, 25, the central bank implemented a more flexible exchange rate mechanism. The next day, the RMB appreciated by 2% against the US dollar, but the impact on the futures market trend was not clear. Various varieties rose and fell, with soybeans falling by 2.45%, copper rising by .39% and rubber rising by 1.76%.
The impact of RMB appreciation on the futures market in July 25
However, in the medium and long term, the appreciation of RMB has caused the futures market to be strong outside and weak inside to a certain extent. The increase of domestic imports has expanded the demand for international commodities, which is conducive to the rise of international commodity prices, which in turn will drive the rise of domestic related commodity prices. After the appreciation of RMB in July 25, although the short-term trend of the price of rubber inside and outside the market was not obvious, in the next two years, the price of Japanese rubber and Shanghai rubber continued to fall, from 95 points to 67 points, with a drop rate of more than 3%; In the next two and a half years, soybean basically maintained the pattern of strong external strength and weak internal strength, and the price of soybean fell from 3.8 in July 25 to 2.41 in February 28, with a drop rate of 36%. Metal copper has also maintained a trend of strong external strength and weak internal strength for more than two years. However, the impact of RMB exchange rate on commodity prices is not fundamental, and ultimately commodity prices are determined by the relationship between supply and demand.
the appreciation of RMB is conducive to reducing the procurement cost of the steel industry, thus reducing the domestic steel price. At present, 4% of iron ore in the steel industry depends on imports, and raw materials dominated by iron ore account for 4%-5% of the steel cost. However, the export of steel is unfavorable, and the appreciation of RMB will lead to an increase in the export price of steel in China and a decrease in the price of imported steel. At present, China mainly exports steel products such as billets, excellent talent and hot coils with low added value, while most of the products imported from abroad are cold plates and galvanized products with high added value. After the appreciation of RMB, the price of foreign steel products will be lower, the market competitiveness will be stronger, and the market share will be higher, which will have a run on domestic steel exports, which will worsen the situation of domestic steel supply exceeding demand and lead to a decline in domestic steel prices.
2。 The impact of a small gradual appreciation or a one-time appreciation of 3%-5% on the futures market
Taking a small gradual appreciation of RMB is similar to boiling a frog in warm water. In the short term, the impact on the price of imported goods is not great, but in the medium and long term, a small gradual appreciation will form the expectation of continuous appreciation of RMB, and the superposition of continuous appreciation expectation and continuous appreciation will accelerate the pace of RMB appreciation. At that time, the China factor will be hyped again in the international market, and the international commodity prices will be further supported, thus playing a leading role in domestic commodity prices. Its role is basically the same as that brought by the above-mentioned sharp appreciation of RMB, and the impact on the futures market is the same as that of a one-time appreciation of 3%-5% and a sharp appreciation of 1% plus a fluctuation range.
Impact on the stock market and futures market
The Plaza Accord refers to the meeting of finance ministers and central bank governors of the United States, Germany, France, Britain and Japan in new york Plaza Hotel in September 1985, and finally reached an agreement, deciding that the five governments would jointly intervene in the foreign exchange market, so that the US dollar would be lowered against major currencies in an orderly manner to solve the huge trade deficit of the United States.
in the 1 years after the signing of the Plaza Accord in 1985, the Japanese yen rose by more than 5% every year on average, and a large number of international funds poured in, which greatly affected Japan's export industry. In order to stimulate economic growth, the Japanese government has implemented a loose monetary policy. Since 1986, Japan's benchmark interest rate has fallen sharply, making a large amount of domestic surplus funds invested in virtual economies such as stock market and real estate. In the five years after the Plaza Accord was signed, Japan's share price increased at an annual rate of 4%, while Japan's nominal GDP increased by only about 5% in the same period, thus forming the famous Japanese bubble economy in the 199s, and Japan's economy quickly bubbled and collapsed five years after the Plaza Accord was signed.
the increase of Japan's foreign exchange market and stock market in the five years after the signing of the Plaza Accord
By observing the trend of Japan's stock market and exchange rate from 1985 to 1989, we can find that there is no consistent positive correlation between the appreciation of the yen and the rise of Japan's stock market. The reason why the appreciation of the Japanese yen pushed the Japanese stock market up from 1985 to 1987 was mainly because the wrong economic policy of the Japanese government at that time led to excess funds, and after the slowdown of Japan's domestic economic growth, it failed to find a good way out for these excess funds, which made a lot of excess funds turn to asset markets such as real estate and stock market, which eventually triggered the stock market and housing market bubbles.
comparison between the exchange rate of Japanese yen and the trend of Nikkei 225 after the Plaza Accord
During the appreciation of Japanese yen from 1985 to 1989, real estate, consumer goods and raw materials with asset attributes rose sharply. At this stage, the stocks of real estate, consumer services, public utilities and insurance sectors rose by 762%, 79%, 626% and 617% respectively, and the raw materials industry followed the real estate industry.
Market investment opportunities and risks
According to our above analysis, China is likely to adopt a small gradual appreciation or a one-time appreciation of 3%-5% in the later period. No matter the analysis of China market or the trend of Japanese stock market and futures market after the Plaza Accord, we can draw a conclusion that the appreciation of domestic currency has a positive effect on the stock market.
specific to the sector, financial stocks are undoubtedly the biggest beneficiary of currency appreciation, and currency appreciation will support the continued strength of financial stocks. As we know, in China's stock market, financial stocks are the biggest weight plate of the Shanghai and Shenzhen 3, that is, the performance of the financial plate has become the key to the trend of the Shanghai and Shenzhen 3. Judging from the linkage between RMB appreciation and stock market, RMB appreciation brings opportunities to stock index futures. Investors can grasp the investment opportunities of stock index futures from the perspective of RMB appreciation, but they must consider the critical value of RMB appreciation. It is good for financial market investment to control the pressure of RMB appreciation within a reasonable range, but if it exceeds a reasonable range, its investment risk will be amplified.
for the commodity market, whether it is a small gradual appreciation of RMB or a one-off appreciation of 3%-5%, in the medium and long term, the commodity market will be strong outside and weak inside. Therefore, prudent investors can try the arbitrage operation inside and outside the market, that is, buy CBOT soybeans and throw domestic beans, and buy copper and throw Shanghai copper for arbitrage operation; Aggressive investors can wait patiently for buying opportunities of soybeans, copper, rubber and other varieties and selling opportunities of steel. However, since all the investment opportunities we set are carried out on the basis that the monetary policy and fiscal policy have not changed, once the fiscal or monetary policy changes, the market will undergo fundamental changes, and investors need to control their positions in time to avoid risks. (futures daily)
listed companies holding foreign debts such as aviation stocks benefit from reducing the actual repayment amount; The wealth effect of enterprises holding RMB assets is obvious, such as real estate and banking, and these enterprises will also be affected.