1, the external environment of China in the next decade.
The so-called world events, in fact, have only three things between countries for thousands of years: war, peace and development. War is the premise of peace, and peace is the premise of development. Unbalanced economic development will bring new wars.
The war happened because the balance of power between countries has changed and needs to be rebalanced to form a new balance of power between countries. After the new balance is completed, peace will come into being. A peaceful international order leads to economic development. Some countries have developed better, while others have developed worse. Emerging countries will challenge the old hegemony and redefine the world interest pattern.
Geopolitics, competing with the lion king and the marquis king, is essentially the same. Replace the rise and fall of empires in the history of world civilization with the competition between old and new lion kings, and you will find that the reason is the same. They all follow an ancient and unchanging law: the law of the jungle. After all, human beings are also animals, and they can't get rid of the universal laws of the animal kingdom.
Until nuclear deterrence, a new law of terror balance, replaced the traditional law of jungle. The form of human war has fundamentally changed. It is no longer possible for nuclear powers to wait for decades or hundreds of years as usual, and a set of princes and kings will compete for hegemony. Because the law of terror balance of nuclear deterrence is that no one will win, no one will lose, and only both will perish together. Therefore, as a means of rebalancing, there is no winning or losing between nuclear powers. As a means, war is meaningless except for mutual destruction at such a high price. Military is only a means, and interests are the purpose. I always thought so.
China is a nuclear power. Under the new law of balance of terror, war will not easily break out among nuclear powers. Rather than a nuclear power, trying to challenge China by force is tantamount to throwing eggs at a stone. Therefore, there will be no all-out war between China and the United States, nor between Russia and the United States, nor between China and Russia. If the world's three major military powers don't go to war with each other in an all-round way, then World War III will never start.
World War III will not come, but it doesn't mean that everything is calm. When total war is not feasible, technological disaster is a new conventional means of containment and rebalancing between hostile countries. Proxy war, for example, exports terrorism, for example, all kinds of mutual dislike. Disaster and anti-disaster, containment and anti-containment are still the long-term themes of world geopolitics and global economy. This is the external environment that China will face in the next 10 year. As for the Taiwan Strait issue, the South China Sea issue and the East China Sea issue, they are essentially extensions of Sino-US relations.
2. The decline of sea power and the rise of land power.
On the American continent, there are no rivals. Both sides are oceans, and it is difficult to invade the United States even if there are strong enemies. The United States can control two oceans, one is NATO and the other is Asia-Pacific, and control the whole world through the super navy. In the past few decades, the so-called World War II order was a sea power era dominated by the United States.
The symbol of sea power is the carrier battle group. The operational range of this aircraft carrier in Fiona Fang can reach 1000 nautical mile, and it cruises on the ocean like a moving black hole. It is difficult for conventional weapons to get close to it, let alone attack and destroy it. There are only two real natural enemies of the aircraft carrier. One is to use an aircraft carrier to fight an aircraft carrier, and the other is land. Because aircraft carriers can't sail on land, carrier-based aircraft have no advantage against the shore-based air force of hostile powers.
So America's geographical advantage is also its geographical disadvantage. An integrated continent of Europe, Asia and Africa has formed an overwhelming advantage over the American continent in terms of area, depth, population, resources, economic aggregate and market scale, and will turn it into an island. The continent of Europe, Asia and Africa symbolizes the rise of landing forces. The rise of land rights has squeezed the once prosperous sea power into the paper pile of history. If Lu Quanxing is promoted, it is inevitable that the sea power will be abolished.
With the two wars against terrorism, the financial tsunami in 2008, Islamic civilization and Russia's anti-squeeze on the United States, the global hegemony of the United States is becoming more and more inadequate. During the wars in Libya and Syria, the United States, as the actual ruler of the earth, did not even show its face. Oil, dollar and aircraft carrier are the three magic weapons for the United States to exercise global rule.
The situation in the Middle East is getting more and more complicated and almost out of control for the United States. If you can't control the Middle East, you can't control oil. The dollar, because of the previous quantitative easing, greatly overdrawn the sovereign credit of the United States. As an international reserve currency, the share of the US dollar has gradually decreased from more than 70% of the historical peak to 50%. If oil and the dollar are out of control, then it is impossible to implement global rule by relying solely on aircraft carriers. Aircraft carriers are useful for deterring small countries, but useless for big countries. Hegemony is declining, and so is sea power as the sword of hegemony. This is an emerging trend.
On the other hand, new trends are emerging and a new order is quietly coming. As the saying goes, there is never a vacuum of power and order on this big stage of the earth. If one side takes a step back, the other side will definitely take a step forward. With the decline of American sea power, a new land power is seeking to integrate and connect Europe, Asia and Africa. This is what the United States does not want to see, but it is more in line with the interests of the Eurasian people. People are unstoppable.
3. The systemic risks of China's economy can be controlled.
China's economy is cursed and collapsed by some people every year. Being cursed verbally for decades, not only did it not collapse, but it developed better and better. I have always been curious about the mentality of these people, always cursing and longing for their country's economic collapse. As if the national economy had collapsed, they could still live a good life.
For example, a person on a boat always talks about sinking, sinking, as if the boat had sunk, and it was only someone else who drowned, not him. When the wall falls down, only kill others, not him. AIA's ship, but there are no extra tickets to sell to romantic foreigners. AIA is a shrewd businessman and won't bring people who only complain about curses but can't afford tickets.
What kind of values one has is everyone's business. The above two paragraphs are not about the politically correct or incorrect values. Instead, I want to say that a fundamental premise of economic analysis is not to have psychological tendencies, but to be objective and detached. Only in this way can we gain real insight and find the crux and essence of economic phenomena. Complaints, resentment, emotions and curses are of zero value to economic analysis. It may even be negative, because judgments and conclusions based on psychology are likely to be wrong, so wrong judgments will lead to wrong decisions. Wrong decisions will inevitably lead to losses.
At every stage of China's economy, new problems and risks will appear. There is no precedent in history or in the world, and there is no template and historical experience for reference. Many phenomena cannot even be explained by the existing mainstream economic models. This has led some scripted scholars to believe that the fault is not the model, but the China economy; What is wrong is not theory, but reality. It's like taking a photo to find a horse. If you find that the real horse is different from the horse in the picture, you declare that the real horse is not a horse. Following the map is also a taboo for economic analysis. If the model can't explain the reality, it is obviously that the model is wrong and the theory is wrong. In the field of economic analysis, dogmatism has no future.
At the present stage of China's economy, the objective risks and problems are the problems left over from the last cycle that need to be solved, and the new growth point has not been found and played the role of the engine pillar. To solve the problem of the last economic cycle, flood discharge and drainage were needed, which naturally led to the exhaustion of liquidity, so the growth stalled. In the critical period of economic transformation, to adjust the structure, it is necessary to dredge the old relations of production that hinder the new economy, and then deepen the reform. How to smoothly transition from the last cycle to the next boom cycle, whether it is V-shaped transition, U-shaped transition or L-shaped transition, is the current problem. This is a problem and a risk.
If it's a V-shaped transition, it's a big break, some radical policies are introduced, all the old models are smashed, and then they are reborn after severe pains. In a short time, you can transition to the new mode. In my opinion, this is not in line with the basic ideas and principles of stability. Because this option is an option where the risk is out of control. Since we want to be steady, we must put risk control in the first place. Therefore, there will be no V-shaped transformation in China's economy in the future. Get some sleep and it will be fine at dawn the next day. Such a thing is unlikely.
If it is U-shaped, it is mid-cycle adjustment. The low growth rate of around 7% will last for several years. The risk will be controlled more stably. The new normal does not refer to a new model or a new economy, but refers to the transition period of the adjustment period between two business cycles. How to solve the remaining problems and find a new growth engine can only be achieved through reform.
If it is L-shaped, it means that both the external environment and the domestic environment have encountered more complicated problems. Then the adjustment period will be longer. In terms of reform policies and measures, it will be more intensive. If you go deeper, it will be deeper. Whether it is a U-shaped transformation or an L-shaped transformation, it is unlikely that China's economy will collapse. Because of the radical and high-risk V-transition option, it has been ruled out.
The biggest flood has crossed the border safely. Therefore, there will be no more floods in the future, and the risk of economic collapse in China can be considered to have been ruled out. Only when the external risks of World War III and economic collapse are eliminated from the inside, the lofty new strategic determination and mission are established, and these three preconditions are met, can we be qualified to talk about the economic transformation and new economic strategy.
So I suggest that the landlord pay attention to the "Belt and Road", and you will have unexpected surprises. Here is a short message for you:
20 17, 17 On June 5th, the 14th China Enterprise Development Forum and the 20 16 China Enterprise Top Ten News Announcement Ceremony were held in the Great Hall of the People under the guidance of china enterprise confederation and China Entrepreneurs Association, and sponsored by China Enterprise Newspaper Group, China Enterprise Top Ten News Selection Committee and China Enterprise Park International Cooperation Alliance. China Enterprise Group, China-Arab Countries Technology and Culture Transfer Center, China Enterprise Park International Cooperation Alliance, Beijing Shui Mu Ping 'an Capital Management Co., Ltd., Wanda Wealth Investment Fund Management (Beijing) Co., Ltd., China-Arab Countries Youth Pioneer Park Management Committee, etc., organized a team with the core of creating a new era civilization, taking finance as its responsibility and creating a new Chinese civilization. The establishment of high-end service platforms such as China-Arab Peace Rose Town, China-Arab Science and Technology Industry Alliance and China-Arab Science and Technology Industry Fund will play a role in promoting the civilized status of China and Arab countries in the world at an early date and realizing the comprehensive goals of "high-level dialogue, economic and trade cooperation, cultural exchange, * * construction * * and" Belt and Road ".