In the view of inactive fund managers, global commodity prices will remain high in the next few years, which will also change the logic behind various investments.
The CPI data of 5438+00 in June is much better than expected, which does not mean that the prospects are bright. Xiao Mo, UBS and other companies believe that the storm has not subsided under the threat of the Fed hawks.
Prefer cash and short-term debt
KelseyBerro, fixed income portfolio manager in JPMorgan Chase, said that the road for the Fed to achieve a soft landing is still very narrow, and it is difficult to bring the inflation rate back to the target level without causing significant economic losses. Although the next inflation level should be slightly lower, there is still great uncertainty about the speed of deceleration and the final destination.
JPMorgan Chase Asset Management Company still insists on a record cash allocation in an investment strategy and continues to invest in high-rated short-term debt. The company has been warning of the possibility of sticky inflation, and many people were optimistic that sticky inflation would disappear after the epidemic improved.
The quantitative analyst of ManGroup, who has similar ideas with JPMorgan Chase, predicts that the huge inflationary pressure will continue, and all indications indicate that the price increase will remain strong for a long time.
In the company's quantitative investment plan ManAHL, the fund manager expects that the trend tracking strategy will continue to outperform the market, and it has always been the winner of the market during the period of high inflation. ManGroup said that as inflation continues, various arbitrage transactions that take advantage of price differences are still attractive.
RussellKorgaonkar, chief investment officer of ManAHL, said that people were too optimistic about the market prospects earlier this year and may still be too optimistic now.
Defense and offense
As inflationary pressure shows signs of easing, traders are more sure that the process of raising interest rates next year may come to an end, and expect the Fed to raise interest rates by 50 basis points in June 5438+February.
According to data tracking, in recent weeks, cash exchange-traded funds have seen a record outflow of funds, of which nearly $5 billion has been withdrawn from iShares short-term government bond ETF, setting a historical record of the largest two-week outflow of funds. This means that investors are betting on falling inflation.
However, Bank of America said that any fund manager who wants to ease the price pressure quickly may make an early move. Bank of America strategists, led by MichaelHartnett, believe that the inflationary pressure of rising service industry and wages is still there, and the inflation figure will fall, but it is still higher than the average level in the past 20 years.
UBS continues to take defensive measures in its hedge fund plan. EdoardoRulli, deputy chief investment officer of its hedge fund solutions business, believes that risky assets will remain volatile, the beta coefficient of the stock and credit markets is still at a historical low, and UBS still adheres to a defensive strategy.
EdClissold, chief American strategist of NedDavisResearch, also said that it may be too early to reinvest in stocks or bonds, and the company is still reducing its holdings of stocks and increasing its holdings of cash.
He added that the cash yield is still attractive, and the Fed is unlikely to implement radical easing policy until problems arise, which means that the prices of risky assets such as stocks will remain low.