Against the backdrop of a reversal in the global monetary environment, emerging markets will face long-term capital outflows.

At present, there is a very obvious three-fold differentiation within emerging market countries. Among them, China, as a representative of the country with the strongest ability to resist risks, has no "near-term worries" but "long-term concerns."

Therefore, China needs to pay close attention to the impact of changes in the external environment and make relevant plans.

Reporter Zhang Huan In the early morning of March 20, Beijing time, the Federal Reserve announced for the third consecutive time that it would reduce asset purchases by US$10 billion, marking the switch of monetary policy from "crisis mode" to "regular mode."

As a result, more and more people are realizing that in the context of the reversal of the global monetary environment, emerging markets will face long-term capital outflows. This is an indisputable fact.

Since the beginning of that year, countries including Turkey, Thailand, Argentina, Malaysia, Indonesia and other countries have suffered large-scale withdrawals of foreign capital. The stock and bond markets have suffered serious losses, and the "pain" of the sharp drop in exchange rates is still vivid in our minds. Perhaps a new round of financial turmoil is about to begin.

Coming.

In this regard, senior researcher Bian Weihong and researcher Xu Yihan of the Bank of China Institute of International Finance who were interviewed by our reporter believe that although the "severely affected area" of the previous round of crisis was Argentina in Latin America, it was ultimately an "isolated case", but it cannot be

Ignore the trending and systemic pressures emerging market economies are facing.

At present, there is a very obvious three-fold differentiation within emerging market countries. Among them, China, as a representative of the country with the strongest ability to resist risks, has no "near-term worries" but "long-term concerns."

"Therefore, our country needs to pay close attention to the impact of changes in the external environment and make relevant plans." Bian Weihong said.

The fading out of QE highlights financial fragility. If the months-long financial turmoil experienced by Indonesia, India and other countries in the middle of last year was just a "preview," then since the Federal Reserve officially kicked off the QE withdrawal in December last year, emerging market countries have

Completely entering the "nightmare" of the "post-QE era".

Although the financial turmoil has subsided slightly since late February, there are signs of resurgence recently.

In Fang Weihong's view, financial risks are heating up again in three major aspects.

As the primary factor, the retreat of QE policy has intensified the withdrawal of international capital from emerging markets.

Although the U.S. economic recovery has slowed down due to the continued extreme cold weather, the latest data shows that domestic industrial output, automobile and household appliance sales, and the housing market are all showing signs of recovery, and the economy is expected to "thaw" this month.

, Therefore, the Federal Reserve continues to advance monetary policy adjustments.

According to statistics released by Global Emerging Markets Securities Fund Research (EPFR), as of March 5, emerging market bond funds have experienced capital outflows of US$11.5 billion year to date.

Secondly, downward pressure on China’s economy still exists.

Since December last year, real economic growth has shown signs of unexpected decline, with industrial growth falling for two consecutive months and infrastructure investment falling sharply.

It is estimated that GDP growth in the first quarter of this year was around 7.2%, sliding towards the "lower limit" of the government's target.

"The slowdown in China's economy has reduced its import demand for international commodities, and the negative spillover effects on resource-exporting emerging market countries have become increasingly obvious," she said.

"Of course, the structural imbalances in emerging economies themselves are undoubtedly the root of all this." Xu Yihan added.

He believes that since the 2008 financial crisis, the global loose monetary policy and the poor economic conditions of developed countries have caused a large amount of capital to flow into emerging market countries, which has brought economic prosperity but also covered up its own shortcomings and delayed the necessary economic development in most countries.

The pace of structural adjustment has made some countries currently overly dependent on foreign debt, and problems such as current account and capital account deficits have become prominent.

Last year, Brazil, India, South Africa, Indonesia and Turkey were nicknamed the "Fragile Five".

Since this year, Argentina, Ukraine, Russia, etc. have also been included.