Affected by market adjustment, the mood of fund investors cooled down, and the scale of new funds dropped significantly. There is a saying that when the scale of fund issuance is at a low point, it is often a good time for fund investment. Is that really the case? Today, Bian Xiao will share with you why the scale of the new fund has dropped sharply, for your reference only!
Total size of new fund issuance
As I said just now, the total scale of fund issuance since April is 36.86 billion yuan, so what is the historical level of this data?
Obviously, both the number of funds represented by the blue curve and the fund size represented by the orange curve (because the net value of the new fund is 1 yuan, the net value of the fund is equal to the fund size) are at the low point of new fund issuance.
Average monthly raising scale of partial stock funds
Only from the perspective of partial stock funds, in 200211,in February and March, the average raising scale of partial stock funds was 360,654.38 billion yuan, 2,724 million yuan and 893 million yuan respectively. Since April, this figure has been141200 million yuan.
Looking back, compare the starting point of this bull market, that is, from February 20 18 to June 20 19, the average raising scale of partial stock funds in these two months was 488 million yuan and 587 million yuan respectively. What is even lower is that from 2065438 to September 2008, the average fundraising scale was 295 million yuan. This data in April is not "too cold".
Number of partial stock funds that failed to issue
From August, 2065438 to August, 2007, four partial stock funds failed to raise funds, which is the month with the largest number of issuance failures so far. In February and April of this year, three partial stock funds failed to issue, which was the second month with the most failed fundraising times.
However, there are few cases in which the announcement of partial stock funds failed in history, and the historical data are scattered, which may not be so statistically significant.
To sum up, according to the current fund issuance data, index 1 "total fund issuance scale" and index 3 "issuance failure times" are at historical lows, while index 2 "average fund raising scale of partial stock funds" is still far from reaching historical lows.
Comprehensive evaluation: the overall fund issuance has been "cold", but it has not reached "extremely cold".
Then let's study the second question: what is the result of entering the market at the "freezing point"?
Among the above three indicators, the indicator 1 has obviously entered the "freezing point". What will happen if you buy a fund with reference to the freezing point of the index 1 "total fund issuance scale"?
We counted a set of data, with the common stock fund index and partial stock mixed fund index as the targets, and entered the market at the "freezing point" of the total fund issuance.
Obviously, if historically, you entered the market at the "freezing point" of the total fund issuance scale of the index 1, then there is still a high probability that you can get good positive returns by holding it.
However, it must be reminded that the freezing point of fund issuance is not exactly equal to the bottom of the market, but only provides a good reference for the admission time.
In essence, trying to buy at the lowest position in the market is a false proposition. Vague correctness is far better than precise error. More backward thinking, entering the market at a relatively low level and holding excellent targets for a long time will actually increase the probability of becoming a future winner.
In the past two years, the returns of funds purchased by many investors are generally unsatisfactory. What caused the large losses of most funds? Mars, an analyst at Shanghai Securities Fund Evaluation Center, pointed out that, first of all, the essence of fund products is the combination of securities, and the performance of fund income is closely related to the performance of the underlying market. In the continuous decline of the stock market, it is difficult for equity funds and hybrid funds, which mainly invest in stocks, to achieve positive returns. In the case of rising stock market, most partial stock funds can often achieve positive returns. Therefore, it is impossible for funds to create myths and create high positive returns in the continuous decline of the market in recent years.
From the long-term performance, in most cases, the overall performance of funds is better than that of individual investors, especially in bull markets and volatile markets. For example, in 2006 and 2007, more than 80% of equity funds achieved a return of more than 100%, while the proportion of individual investors was less than 20 12 years. Nearly 50% of equity funds have achieved a return of 5% to 30%. According to the survey, more than 50% of individual investors have lost between 5% and 50%. Therefore, the fund is still a good investment tool for individual investors to participate in the capital market.
All kinds of problems, whether China's stock market construction, economic development or asset management industry, can't be eliminated in a short time, and all need the rationality of the market as a whole to promote it. However, as investors themselves, we must measure our risk tolerance clearly and not blindly listen to the propaganda of sales staff. If your risk tolerance is weak, or the funds you want to use in the short term, you can't invest too much in a single stock fund to avoid being greatly affected by the risk of stock market fluctuations. Therefore, for individual investors, it is more meaningful to have a long-term investment mentality, choose appropriate fund products according to their own risk tolerance and renewal, avoid excessive pursuit of popular funds with outstanding short-term returns, pay more attention to funds with relatively stable long-term performance, and spread risks through fixed investment and portfolio allocation to obtain long-term stable returns.
Tip:
First, we should pay attention to arranging the proportion of fund varieties according to our own risk tolerance and investment purpose. Choose the fund that suits you best, and set an investment ceiling when buying partial stock funds.
Second, be careful not to buy the wrong "fund". The popularity of funds has led to some fake and shoddy products "fishing in troubled waters", so we should pay attention to identification.
Third, pay attention to the post-maintenance of your account. Although the fund is worry-free, it should not be left unattended. Always pay attention to the new announcements on the fund website, so as to have a more comprehensive and timely understanding of the funds you hold.
Fourth, pay attention to buying funds, and don't care too much about the net value of funds. In fact, the fund's income is only related to the net growth rate. As long as the fund's net growth rate stays ahead, the income will naturally be high.
Fifth, we should be careful not to "love the new and hate the old" or blindly pursue new funds. Although the new fund has inherent advantages such as preferential prices, the old fund has long-term operating experience and reasonable positions, which is more worthy of attention and investment.
Sixth, we should be careful not to buy dividend funds unilaterally. Fund dividend is the return of investors' previous income, so it is more reasonable to change the dividend method to "dividend reinvestment" as far as possible.
Seventh, we should pay attention not to talk about heroes in the short term. It is obviously unscientific to judge the pros and cons of the fund by short-term ups and downs, and it is necessary to make a comprehensive evaluation of the fund in many aspects and conduct a long-term investigation.
Eighth, we should pay attention to the flexible choice of investment strategies such as steady and worry-free fixed investment and affordable and simple dividend transfer.
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