In other words, I have talked about so many fixed investment periods, especially the fixed investment in the index category. It took several cycles to list the fixed investment combinations of SSE 50+ GEM Index and CSI 300+ CSI 500, and I also talked about the indexes of several cycles.

However, I don't know if you have noticed that these articles are all based on the analysis of the indexes themselves, but none of them really talk about the actual investment effect of these indexes. Not afraid of being cheated?

After I discovered this myself, I was secretly worried, so I had this article today, trying to use big data analysis to examine the actual fixed investment effect of these indexes from some angles.

Before we begin, I must define the rules of the game:

1. The sample selects the two groups of * * * four indexes mentioned above: SSE 50 and GEM, CSI 300 and CSI 500;

2. In order to compare the same period, the sample period from June 20 10 to February 24, 20 17, spanning nearly 7 years, can be regarded as a bull and a bear. I can't say that this represents everything, but at least I can get a glimpse;

3. Because it is a fixed investment, the short-term effect within one year is ignored, and only the fixed investment of 1 year, 2 years, 3 years and 5 years is considered;

4. The rule of fixed investment is: fixed investment will be started on 201June 10, and then fixed investment will be made once every month on the first trading day, usually on June 10. If it is not a trading day, it will be postponed to the next trading day, and each fixed investment will be equal;

5. For convenience, I don't need the XIRR to calculate the annualization, but directly use the normal annualization method to calculate the annualization of the fixed investment. I don't think this problem is very big. At least one standard can be used to calculate, and of course it can be compared. Besides, although XIRR is good, the calculated annualization is not very grounded, and most people look at it just like Sharp ratio.

Start high energy ahead, please pay attention to safety!

I'd better put a 1 year fixed investment income chart of SSE 50 first to adjust the reading frequency for you:

Any point on the curve in the above figure represents the absolute rate of return from one year after investing in the index to the present point.

For example, the first point is 2.83% on May 4, 20 1 1 year, that is to say, the fixed investment starts from June 4, 201year to May 3, 201year, and the total investment is just12 (650. Good luck, Rhett.

Conversely, with the passage of time and the rise and fall of the index, the yield is red and green, which is really nice.

There is also a lucky dog, because it describes the absolute rate of return for one year, so according to the simple annualized view, it is also an annualized rate of return, a curve, two meanings, killing two birds with one stone.

If you just look at this picture, you can probably know something like this:

1. The one-year return rate of the Shanghai Stock Exchange is positive and negative. Visual inspection seems to be a situation of plus or minus 50-50 split;

2. The minimum rate of return for a year's fixed investment may be a loss of 20%+; The highest possible profit is 80%+. On an annualized basis, the rate of return is very exaggerated. Who told us that 20 15 encountered a big bull market?

That seems to be it. What else can you see? I don't believe you can see the average.

Based on the above, we will continue to see what kind of scene the SSE 50 will be with a fixed investment of 2 years:

The red-green line still represents the absolute rate of return, and the newly introduced blue line represents the simple annualized rate of return.

Comparing one-year fixed investment, there are two obvious trends:

1. The red line representing positive absolute rate of return is obviously more than the green line representing negative absolute rate of return, which means that the probability of obtaining positive income after two years of fixed investment will be greater, although the green part is considerable;

2. The annualized rate of return curve is relatively gentle, with the maximum loss not exceeding 8% (meaning the maximum absolute loss not exceeding 15%) and the maximum annualized return exceeding 40%;

Continue to invest in fixed investment for 3 years;

5-year fixed investment plan:

Compared with the fixed investment of 1 and 2 years, the obvious trend mentioned above is obviously more obvious:

1. The longer the fixed investment time, the greater the probability of obtaining positive returns. For example, the five-year period was originally 100% positive income (no green line)!

2. The longer the fixed investment time, the smoother the annualized rate of return. For example, the highest annualized rate of return for three years is less than 30%, but the highest loss is 5%+; There is no loss during the five-year period, but the highest annualized income is about 15%.

Please note that these conclusions are not the key point, because everyone knows the same reason of profit and loss, just think about it. What I really want to tell you here, or what I really want to try to solve, is: If I decide to vote for a different year, when can I quit or consider quitting?

This question is obviously much higher, and it will be sold by experts. You have to learn the skills of being a master as soon as you get up, so please continue to fasten your seat belt.

I'd better start from the simple to the deep, and give a table of absolute rate of return and annualized rate of return for your reference:

Briefly explain the contents of the table, using YOY to represent annualized rate of return, not yoy to represent absolute rate of return. For example, 2Y in the third column represents the absolute rate of return after two years of fixed investment, with the maximum value of 10 1.34%, the minimum value of-14.44% and the average value of1.19%.

If you must give a selling reference value here, you will generally choose an average value, such as 1 annual average annualized rate of return of 4.66% and two-year average absolute rate of return1.19%, which is equivalent to an average annualized rate of return of 4.86%; The three-year average absolute rate of return 19.68% is equivalent to the average annualized rate of return of 5.59%; The five-year average absolute rate of return is 37.68%, which is equivalent to the average annualized rate of return of 6.46%.

Have you found that the average annualized rate of return of SSE 50 is actually higher with the longer investment time!

This is the first important conclusion of this paper.

Of course, choosing the average is only a rough choice, although I think it is also quite meaningful. What are the unusual choices?

Please refer to the following table:

This is a probability data table. See probability! !

I'd better take an actual data as an example. For example, the data in the second column of the second row, without horizontal statistics, is 25.5 1%, which means the probability that the annualized rate of return is greater than 5% is 25.5 1%. Obviously this is not a high probability.

I believe that with everyone's naked eye, just looking at the black and white version of this probability table is completely blind: white.

The picture above is a color version of human flesh coloring. The colors are bright red and green, but this is a heat map, at least it is easier to see.

For example, if I look at this chart, I can probably know that it is best to invest in SSE 50 for 3-5 years, and then pursue an annualized rate of return of 5%~ 10%. No, because its realization probability+annualized rate of return is the most appropriate, isn't it?

Of course, if you have a fixed investment of more than 1 year, and then the annualized rate of return exceeds 10%, or even 15%, or even 20%, you can directly consider selling. Because they are all green enough, that is to say, the realization probability of these annualized rates of return is very low. Since you are lucky, let's leave the bag for safety.

This is the second important conclusion of this paper.

I wonder if we were a little sad when we came to this conclusion: the annualized rate of return seems a little low. . . Yes, who told you to vote for SSE 50?

Let's take a look at the awakening of fixed investment growth enterprise market:

I didn't expect a SSE 50 to spend so much space, so for the sake of simplicity, I omitted four fixed investment income charts and only put a final income statement:

And the color version of the fixed investment GEM heat map:

The mirror on the wall, what can you see in this color picture?

The previous first conclusion continues to be verified: the average annualized rate of return basically increases with the longer the fixed investment time.

The second conclusion can be explained as follows: if you decide to invest in GEM, it is best to invest for three to five years, and then you can pursue the annualized rate of return of 10%~ 15%. Similarly, if there is a fixed investment of more than 1 year, and then the annualized rate of return exceeds 20%, you can start to consider selling.

There is an indisputable fact here: the same bull-bear experience is also a small probability, but the probability that the annualized rate of return of the GEM is greater than 20% is even greater than the probability that the 50-year annualized rate of return of the Shanghai Stock Exchange is greater than 10%. No matter which time period PK, GEM will win completely.

This. . . He understood. Are you clear?

Here, I answered a question left by a fan by the way. He said that your previous article said that it would be good to choose only GEM, and it is not recommended to vote for SSE 50. Later, you said that you would invest in the combination of SSE 50 and GEM. Isn't that contradictory?

It is really a contradiction. It's contradictory, and there's Mao Dun. According to the above comparison, I estimate that individuals will only choose to invest in the GEM, so the first recommendation is completely no problem; However, I do not know that the future of fixed investment is bright, but the process is tortuous. During the fixed investment in GEM, most people really can't afford to quit 10%. It's much better to vote for SSE 50, so there won't be such a big withdrawal, and it can supplement the GEM (from the perspective of asset allocation, the big market cooperates with the small market to catch up with the overall income of A shares). Is this not good? So the second suggestion is completely fine.

At this point, everyone must be eager to see the situation of CSI 300 and CSI 500, saying that Cao Cao has four cars:

I'm happy to give four watches at a time.

Although some people may be a little confused, please carefully compare the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 with the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50, the Shanghai Stock Exchange 500 and the Growth Enterprise Market Index, and you will easily find that the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 and the Growth Enterprise Market Index have completely won from any angle, so this is why I generally recommend the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50+ Growth Enterprise Market Index portfolio for fixed investment index investment. I don't usually pat myself on the head. I pat the computer on the head.

In addition, if someone is really not afraid of the rise and fall of the index, the probability of investing in the GEM index or CSI 500 will be much greater. If you want to ask me for a valuation, please go to "Do I need to consider the valuation when I make a fixed investment?"

This is the third important conclusion today.

Speaking of valuation, I won't be polite to you. Let's look at the so-called undervalued H-share index, which is what I really want to know.

Seeing this result, I think your hearts must have collapsed. To be honest, I'm a little surprised at snacks. I thought it might be green, but I didn't expect it to be so green. Even more disturbing is that:

1. Compared with the first important conclusion (mainly see table 1), H shares still conform to the statement that the longer the fixed investment time, the better the return, but most of the returns are negative, especially the average and median of annualized returns with reference significance are negative. How to make a fixed investment? Do we set a negative target annualized rate of return when investing in H shares, and then choose a negative one to sell?

2. According to the second important conclusion (mainly see Table 2), there is almost no probability of selling H shares, and the maximum probability is that the profit probability of fixed investment for one year is 44.9 1%. It is impossible to see a fixed investment of two years, three years and five years. You have to see for yourself.

I put an extra one-year yield chart of H shares:

As can be seen from the above figure, the current rate of return for those who started investing in H shares a year ago is about 15%, which is very good. But looking back, the probability of profit 15% in the heat map is 6.0 1%, and the probability of profit above 20% in the back is 3.04%. I don't know whether you want to sell it or want to sell it now.

That's almost it for today. I don't know how many more people can be destroyed. . . In fact, I really didn't mean to ruin people's views. I'm just a porter of big data. As a result, I also showed my hand, and I was a little surprised first, so I want to forward it, although most of this causal relationship can't pass the Granger causality test.

Postscript:

I reread today's article by myself, and found that this article well explains a concept I have always mentioned: investment is a probability game, and what we have to do is a high probability thing. In the long run, there is a high probability of making money.

Of course, the probability is only a probability after all, even if it is a big probability, it can only be used as a reference and not as the basis for all investments. Therefore, if someone sells the H-share index that has been invested hard for a year because of reading this article, and then finds that H-shares continue to rise and fall, please don't make a fuss. Small probability events are also a possibility, and some people even won 5 million, one in ten million.