Macroeconomics refers to all economic activities. Refers to the whole national economy or the whole national economy and its economic activities and operating conditions, such as total supply and total demand; Gross national economy and its growth rate; The main proportional relationship in the national economy; The overall price level; Overall employment level and unemployment rate; The total scale and growth rate of currency issuance; The total scale of import and export trade and its changes.
It is generally believed that the term 1933 was put forward by Norwegian economist Ragnar Frish (1895- 1973) when he founded "macroeconomics". The main goal of macro-economy is to maintain high-speed growth of output rate, low unemployment rate and stable price level.
the policy goal
The objectives of macroeconomic policies are:
1, a high and growing level of national output (real GDP)
2. High employment rate and low unemployment rate
3. A stable or moderately rising price level
Policy tools are economic variables under the control of the government, which can exert influence on one or more macroeconomic goals.
Overall balance
The balance of macroeconomic aggregate refers to:
macro-economy
(1) Balance between provident fund and consumption fund.
(2) Balance of market supply and demand in the region.
(3) the balance between total social supply and total social demand.
(4) the balance between production and demand in the national industrial sector.
face a problem
Three myths
One is inflationary pressure, the other is liquidity pressure, and the third is downward pressure on growth. The further analysis of these three myths is actually subject to three manifestations of a spindle. And this spindle is not inside, but outside, which is the problem derived from the depreciation of the dollar. Before analyzing the "three myths", let me say an important premise, that is, the change of the US dollar. Because this is the key to the problem and the premise of getting rid of the "three myths", we must first understand the direction of the US dollar.
To analyze the trend of the dollar, we have to talk about the weak dollar strategy pursued by the United States. For several years, the dollar has been depreciating, which has led to the chaos of the global price system. In other words, from the perspective of the United States, the expected goal has been achieved, and if we continue to fight, it will cause substantial harm to the United States itself.
First of all, the continued depreciation of the dollar has caused difficulties for economic opponents. For example, the RMB continued to appreciate by nearly 20% against the US dollar for three years, which made most low-profit export-oriented enterprises in China suffer from the double squeeze of exchange rate and cost, and went into loss or even bankruptcy. In other words, the depreciation of the dollar has achieved the goal of squeezing opponents.
Secondly, the chaotic global price system and the increasing inflationary pressure brought by the continuous depreciation of the US dollar have reached a critical moment that cannot be cured. From the perspective of American interests, if left unchecked, it will cause substantial damage to the American economy itself. At this time, if the dollar turns from weak to strong, it can stabilize price expectations and is conducive to the next development of the US economy.
From a global perspective, under the pressure of inflation, the strength of the US dollar is also in line with the expectations of countries to stabilize prices. At this time, the United States can adjust its weak dollar strategy, not only to be a "good person", but also to help global financial resources flow back into the United States. National debt is an important signal to turn the tide.
After understanding the general trend of the US dollar, let's look back at the inflationary pressure in China, one of the "three myths".
From the leading point of view, this round of inflationary pressure is mainly imported, a monetary phenomenon, and the pressure brought by the soaring oil and commodity prices caused by the depreciation of the US dollar. If we add the so-called "high growth and low inflation" in the previous two years, it will actually push back the price pressure, which is why a new price situation has been formed. However, this may not have attracted enough attention.
From this observation, this round of price increase mainly depends on the dollar factor. However, some international organizations have made clear judgments on the trend of the dollar, and they also have clear expectations for the decline in the prices of oil and other means of production. In this case, how to treat the price trend and external economic environment in China and adjust the corresponding economic policies is a problem that cannot be ignored.
Looking at the liquidity problem of the second of the "three myths" is also related to the trend of the US dollar. In recent months, with the gradual narrowing of foreign trade surplus, a large number of unexplained foreign exchange inflows have caused new hedging pressure. Why did hot money squeeze into China? I just want to arbitrage from two aspects in a short time, one is the appreciation of RMB, and the other is the expectation of the spread between China and the United States.
Macro-control and reform
"Many economic problems cannot be solved by macro-control, such as the solidification of social strata in China." Li Yining explained that social stratum has solidified, or called "occupational hereditary system". For example, the children of migrant workers are migrant workers, and the long-term existence of the problem will lead to social rigidity, which cannot be solved by macro-control.
Li Yining also cited the long-standing phenomenon of "investment impulse cycle" in China. Local governments want to speed up development and demand more investment and credit, then credit expands, economic growth rate increases, and inflation comes. The central government has to take austerity measures to reduce investment and credit, so although inflation has been curbed, local governments are deeply troubled by the decline in fiscal revenue, GDP growth rate and employment pressure. The central government has to start external forces again to stimulate the economy.
"Macro-control alone cannot solve the problems of' investment impulse cycle' and' occupational hereditary system'." Li Yining emphasized that endogenous power is more important than exogenous power. Macro-control is only an exogenous force, and it is a more thorough reform to play a role through the endogenous market economic mechanism.
Foreign exchange inflow
In order to cope with the liquidity problem caused by foreign exchange inflows, the central bank continuously raised the deposit reserve ratio. With the increasing inflationary pressure and the increasing difficulty of raising interest rates, the repeated use of this policy tool has obviously played a role in shrinking liquidity, but it has also led to structural congestion of funds, especially for small and medium-sized enterprises. The alleviation of the problem is also related to the direction of the dollar.
The third myth, that is, economic growth, is also related to the trend of the dollar. The problem of growth was originally a domestic matter, but for an economy with high dependence on foreign trade, the problem is not so simple. Due to the appreciation of the local currency, the prices of means of production have risen sharply, and a large number of foreign trade enterprises with meager profits have lost their survival foundation and their exports have declined, which naturally has a direct impact on economic growth.
However, the transformation from export-oriented enterprises to domestic demand-oriented enterprises and the adjustment of industrial layout from the structure of promoting economic growth require great efforts in both production organization and time, which is not a one-off event. At the same time, in an open era, even enterprises serving domestic demand should have an international business vision. In other words, in the world economic structure with the US dollar as the international currency, we also need to pay attention to the trend of the US dollar.
There are signs that the dollar has turned from weak to strong. At this time, if we don't look at the problem in essence, but continue to be deceived by appearances and make inappropriate choices in strategy and tactics, it will lead to sequelae. The dollar is not a completely self-righteous currency, and it will also be influenced by the American economy itself and the international economic and financial structure.
China's economy is fully qualified to seize the favorable opportunity of the timely turn of the US dollar, make corresponding policy adjustments, and get out of the "three myths". As far as the overreacted Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets are concerned, a more forward-looking, comprehensive, rational and historical view of China's economic trend may alleviate the irrational agitation of these two markets.