1. Brief analysis of the global financial crisis in 2008 ⑴ The global financial crisis was mainly caused by the real estate bubble in the United States and the leverage of financial derivatives. The reasons are as follows: 1. The Federal Reserve’s long-term low interest rate policy caused fixed asset investment to
bubbles and false prosperity of the economy; 2. Ineffective financial supervision of derivatives and credit ratings in the United States has led to the reappearance of an economy similar to the Internet bubble, which has deeply affected countries around the world; 3. The United States has underestimated the harm of the subprime mortgage crisis
, failed to correct in time and provide necessary political support in the early stage, resulting in the current situation that is difficult to deal with; ⑵ Consequences of the U.S. financial crisis: 1. Caused a recession in the U.S. and global real economies, and many seemingly powerful countries collapsed overnight.
It has reached the edge of bankruptcy; 2. The depth and breadth of the impact of this financial crisis are greater than that of the economic crisis from 1929 to 1933, because the current global economic integration has amplified the depth and breadth of the impact of the crisis; ⑶ The United States and the world
Economic Trend Forecast: 1. Although countries around the world have vowed to unite to rescue the market and have introduced astronomical rescue plans, it remains to be seen whether they are effective in the next few months.
Moreover, the financial nationalization problems caused by the bailout, the source of funds required for the bailout and its subsequent impact, whether the bailout only targets financial liquidity means are appropriate, and the real economy will also face "bailout" problems in the future (such as the automobile industry), etc.
, everything is unknown.
2. Even if the global joint rescue is successful, it will take a long time, and a mid- to long-term economic recession is inevitable.
2. Analysis of the impact of the global financial crisis on the Chinese economy in 2008 1. Since China’s capital account of the balance of payments has not yet been fully liberalized, the scale of asset securitization is still in its infancy, and China has a large amount of foreign exchange reserves, these factors have prevented China from being affected by the global financial crisis.
The severe impact of the financial crisis; 2. However, the actual losses of China’s financial assets in the United States are also expected to be huge, and the specific figures need to be tested and digested in the future; (such as China Investment Corporation’s investment in Morgan Stanley, Blackstone, and money funds
The losses will be heavy, and the losses on subprime mortgages and Lehman bonds held by major banks will also be huge, as can be seen from Ping An's huge 90% investment loss) 3. Although China has not been hit by a serious financial crisis, it has
The impact of the global financial crisis and economic recession has also been a severe impact and test on China.
The intensification of global economic integration and international division of labor, as well as China's long-term development model of using external demand to support the economy, have determined that China can no longer stand out alone.
As the saying goes, "When the nest is overturned, the eggs are not finished! 4. The world's giants cannot digest the crisis on their own. For example, the US$700 billion in rescue funds from the United States will certainly not pay for all of it themselves. China is bound to become the final payer. , it’s just a question of how much to pay; 5. Although China has taken a series of measures to try to resolve the economic impact of insufficient external demand by stimulating strong domestic demand, it is too late. How can a long-term external demand-driven economy be achieved? It can be changed in the short term. Moreover, China is facing the triple threat of inflation, deflation, and stagflation, which will inevitably make China's policy formulation more difficult. However, consumers' psychological expectations have changed. Continuous interest rate cuts will not be able to stimulate domestic demand in the short term, and a slowdown in economic development or even a short-term recession is possible; 3. The impact of the global financial crisis and economic recession on the Chinese stock market 1. The direct impact of the global financial crisis is on those that rely heavily on exports This part of the losses of listed entities and financial institutions with large investments overseas cannot yet be fully predicted, and the final loss figure will be astronomical. Moreover, the domino effect of the collapse of export-oriented enterprises will also affect Hejun Group this time. After the collapse of the financial crisis, it is inevitable that more export-oriented companies will die; 2. Although the banking industry was directly affected by the financial crisis, due to my country's strict financial control, the losses were relatively small and the water was not deep. In the medium and long term, China is expected to continue to cut interest rates, but due to changes in consumer psychological expectations, more funds will temporarily flow back to banks in the short term. The follow-up will depend on how each bank responds. 3. The winter of the real estate industry is now. It is still just beginning. In the past few years, the real estate industry has produced a large number of bubbles due to the impact of overheated fixed asset investment, inflation, and the appreciation of the Chinese currency. After the bubble burst, some unfavorable factors emerged, such as the unfair land distribution system in the system. (A large number of land kings appeared one after another during the peak period, and the land value increased rapidly), the rising rate of housing prices far exceeded the rising rate of consumer wages, and the continuous decline of the stock market locked up a large amount of funds (consumers' property income has shrunk severely), etc. But the good news is that the asset securitization reform in the real estate industry is still in its infancy, thus avoiding the subprime crisis similar to that in the United States. 4. The impact of the crisis on the steel industry has begun to appear, as shown in the continued decline in steel prices and reduction in production capacity.